Ballin’ or Fallin’ – 2009 Pre Season Edition Part I
Ladies and Gentlemen it is indeed that time of the year, the fantasy football preseason.Preseason separates the players from the pretenders.The details for league domination are out there, you just need to know where to look.
Look no further.
If you’re new to the program Ballin’ or Fallin’ is an unorthodox look at the fantasy football values of players from around the league taking in everything to see if a guy’s value is going up or down.If your guy isn’t one of the ones looked at in the feature article shoot me an email at airram98@hotmail.com or post a question in the comments below and I’ll answer.And I don’t just answer one or two softball questions, I answer all of them.Seriously.
Because this article is preseason and will cover a ton of players I’m splitting it into two parts.Part I will be Ballin’ and Part II will be Fallin’.Alright, let’s kick off the season right:
Ballin
Quarterbacks
Donovan McNabb – No quarterback in the NFL has benefited more from the draft and the off season addition of veterans than McNabb.His offensive line improved massively through very smart free agent aquisitions.Kevin Curtis is close to healthy and they added another playmaking wide out and tight end through the draft.McNabb also will enjoy an upgrade at backup runningback through the draft after losing Buckhalter to the Broncos.His 2008 numbers were ridiculous and you can look for him to post better numbers in 2009.
Kyle Orton – Denver is a trainwreck until proven otherwise.HOWEVER, Orton was tearing it up to everyone’s surprise last season before screwing up his ankle.Well his ankle is now 100% and he has better than a runningback, converted cornerback, and tight end to throw the ball to this season.He landed a plum assignment and will be afforded the chance to compete with Chris Simms for the starting gig.I like Simms but this is Orton’s job to tank. I don’t see that happening and what’s more his coach NEEDS him to succeed.If he could play well with the garbage he had in Chicago he will succeed with the weapons around him in Denver.Orton won’t get picked near where his production will land him during the season.
Trent Edwards – TO is a pain in the ass and a terrible teammate.But he is still an elite talent in the NFL.Edwards will get another weapon to throw to in Buffalo and his production will go up at least in the early part of the season before the TO cancer spreads and becomes terminal.Edwards will be the ideal buy low and sell high candidate around week 5.
Matt Ryan – Ryan will be better than the QB1 you draft this year.He has all the weapons in the world to throw to and a stout running game.Tony Gonzalez’s addition to the roster was a major, major upgrade at a needed position and he immediately takes on the possession receiver role.Ryan also has “it”.And “it” is something that can’t be drafted after the fact or picked up in free agency.He is due for a big year, book it.
Honorable mention: Aaron Rodgers, Kurt Warner, Phillip Rivers, Carson Palmer
Runningback
DeAngelo Williams – Carolina did jack and squat to improve the offense outside of picking up a smash and destroy fullback and offensive lineman.Instead they focused on improving the defense.Hey if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.That tells you this team is going to grind on the ground again.Williams came into his own last season and I see no reason he stops.The holes he’ll get to run through will be gaping and with his homerun speed this Panther will again reign supreme among fantasy football runningbacks.
Steve Slaton – As a rookie he ended up 6th in rushing yards and demonstrated an ability to make things happen through the air, too.He’s got another year in the Kubiak system and faces no credible threat for touches.He’s about the best example of a non-RBBC guy as the NFL has with talent to boot.Shaub is back this year and that will only help out Slaton’s production.I like this guy to step up again this year and out perform many others taken ahead of him.
Maurice Jones-Drew – Pocket Hercules now shares the backfield with no one and like Slaton is a dual threat out of the backfield making him a default Ballin’ candidate.He is likely to get a ton of hype and love leading up to the season so you won’t get a value pick from him but he will no doubt improve his stock now that Fred Taylor is no longer a Jag.
Ronnie Brown-Ronnie Brown is another guy that will fall through the cracks and will outperform his draft position.Fantasy football is fickle and crazy because Brown will get passed over time and time again because he scored 4 tds in one game.Penalty for success, I suppose.He has remarkable hands and will become much more involved in the passing game this season.
Honorable mention- Chris Johnson, Donald Brown (Colts), Thomas Jones, Matt Forte
Wide Receiver
Calvin Johnson – Johnson has the talent to be the best wide out of his generation but he won’t be the first wide out taken in fantasy drafts.Why? Because he plays for an utterly craptastic team.Yet he was able to bob to the fecal surface last season to post top 5 numbers.If Culpepper is behind center this season Johnson’s numbers could swell to league leading.No knock against Stafford but C-Pepp’s trademark “heave it deep and pray” technique led to the future HOF career of one Mr. Randy Moss.14 tds and 1,300 yards isn’t out of the question.
Tony Gonzolez – (Indy) Gonzo Jr. has been quietly getting better every year.Harrison’s departure doesn’t affect his standings as he pretty much passed him on his own merit which should tell you something.Another thing that should tell you something is Peyton Manning let Harrison walk which shows me he has all the confidence in the world in Gonzalez.Yes, Forehead runs the show on offense and don’t for a second kid yourself about that fact.If he wanted Harrison to stick around because he wasn’t sure about Gonzo as his replacement the front office would find the cash to keep him.
Ted Ginn Jr. – Like his teammate Ronnie Brown Ginn had one amazing game that will get him penalized come this year’s draft.This would be the year Ginn steps up and makes more big plays more often.We’re not talking All-Pro but Ginn may not even get drafted in some smaller leagues yet will likely be better than some of the #2 or #3’s taken from high octane offenses from 2008.
Eddie Royal – Royal will be the best of his class this season.In point per reception leagues he’ll be better than Brandon Marshall.The new Denver offense will look like but won’t be a carbon copy of last season’s New England team.When looking at Royal in that light think Wes Welker only more talented.Royal has an outstanding work ethic and now another year under his belt.Of all the wr’s I commented on here my gut is telling me Royal is poised to destroy this season.
Honorable mention – Steve Smith (New York),T.J. Houshmandzadeh,Chris Henry
Tight Ends
Chris Cooley – He’s a goof but he’s a talented goof.Campbell will be back by default and will again use Cooley.Because of his lame td totals he won’t get drafted very high so consider him a value pick.
Brent Celek – Celek is a no-name who could potentialy blow up this season.Andy Reid singled him out as a guy who is crazy talented and didn’t get used enough last season.His is a name to keep in mind deep into the draft this season.Celek could more than likely outshine guys like Heath Miller, Kevin Boss, and Jeremy Shockey.
Honorable mention – Tony Gonzalez (Falcons), John Carlson, Kellen Winslow Jr.
4:47 pm on May 14th, 2009
Solid article Scott, as always.
Kyle Orton is a curious case. I agree with him as a sleeper #2 guy, but for the same reason he goes up, Denver’s WR’s should be downgraded a notch. He made out way better in that tradeoff than they did. With that said, I like T. Scheffler as a Ballin’ TE with this move as Orton utilized Olsen quite well in Chicago and his lack of Cutler’s arm strength should lead to more short and mid-range passes.
5:05 pm on May 14th, 2009
Good logic Wes. My thinking about Orton is that Olson’s production was more a function of the complete void at wide out and less to do with Orton or Olson. Scheffler may or may not be on the roster. Doogie McDaniels has him on the trade block AND they drafted some mook tight end in the second round, I believe. Now Orton has Royal, Marshall (maybe), Stokely, and Jabar Gaffney from the Pats. Huge upgrade and in the new system he will be using most of those guys.
6:10 pm on May 14th, 2009
They picked up Quinn in the 2nd after trading up with Pittsburgh to get him. He’s basically an in-line blocking specialist but they already had a guy like that in Graham. Trading Scheffler would be a massive mistake in my opinion. I really love his receiving skillset and he would be a star if he goes to a system that utilizes him. He’d be an ideal security blanket as Orton adapts to the system.
I’ll definitely defer to you folks in the Denver area on this stuff, but it really seems like McDaniels likes to overthink things so far.
7:09 pm on June 4th, 2009
Orton is one of my big sleepers this year. I think he will benefit from his new surroundings and be a bottom tier starter or a hack of a guy to have in a platoon situation.