By: Scott Henkel on Jun 11th, 2010
Scott Henkel
There is a time honored saying in poker about suckers. Basically if you can’t figure out who the sucker is at the table within 3 seconds I have bad news for you, friend; you’re the sucker. Suckers in fantasy football just take the spoon fed crap swirling around the fantasy football echo chamber and draft like mindless automatons. Lazy writers take last year’s statistics and dutifully project them forward. You see that is the safe bet. Most players will come somewhat close to last year’s production so they won’t look like meatheads by suggesting you draft this guy #1 overall or that guy as your #1 wide receiver. These are the same meatheads who convinced you to draft Matt Forte in the top three last year so it is time to tune them out. We’re a few months away from most drafts but I can already see the hype machine kicking into overdrive for guys like Jamaal Charles, Miles Austin, Kevin Kolb, and Dallas Clark. So allow me to buck the trend and highlight a few players to avoid overpaying for in this year’s draft.
Chris Johnson- Let’s just get the biggest blasphemy out of the way, shall we? CJ2K will not repeat last year’s statistical output. But he’s consistently mocked in the #1 slot. Why? Because fantasy football owners are petrified when it comes to drafting in the #1 spot. No one wants to get clowned for picking a guy first who ends up like Larry Johnson or Matt Forte. So we draft out of fear of becoming our league goat. Don’t be a spineless twit and draft with your brains AND your testicular fortitude! If you know a guy like Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Frank Gore, or Ray Rice will outproduce last season’s rushing champ pull the trigger. Don’t get me wrong about CJ. I think he’s a damn fine back and without Lenwhale clouding the backfield he has a great shot to produce. But I have every confidence that history doesn’t have very good things to say about 2k yard backs. Add to that the re-emergence of Vince Young and his new weapon Kenny Britt and I believe the Titans won’t lean on the run nearly as much as last season. So if you do get the dreaded 1 hole this year rejoice and pass on CJ2K. (Later in the draft I’ll also pass on Beanie Wells, Jamaal Charles, anyone in Cleveland, and Steven Jackson) Read the rest of this entry »
Tags: 2010 rankings, Andre Johnson, Chris Johnson, Dallas Clark, Jay Cutler, Kevin Kolb, Tony Romo
Posted in Fantasy Football, Featured, General NFL | 10 Comments »
By: Scott Henkel on May 20th, 2010
Scott Henkel
This is the time of the year that fantasy football pundits like yours truly love; we can never be wrong. Everyone has an opinion and in training camp there is no way someone can come back and tell you that you’re flat out wrong and back it with anything but their own opinion. As a guy who puts his opinions out there every season let me tell you;this is great. I love it. Maybe in a few months I’ll get called on an outlandish prediction but for now I’m the king…along with everyone else who can type and has an Internet connection. So I’m taking a look at guys who I feel aren’t getting any or enough love from the fantasy football buzz community. Some could be stars and some could be sweet value picks later in drafts. I’m looking at these guys in standard scoring redraft leagues. Read the rest of this entry »
Tags: Fantasy Football, Preseason Predictions
Posted in Fantasy Football, Featured, General NFL, Uncategorized | 1 Comment »
By: Scott Henkel on May 9th, 2010
Scott Henkel
This week has been somewhat quiet in the NFL fantasy football world. With the exception of the Raiders dropping JaMarcus Russell (which can’t be considered Earth shattering news) most teams seem to be in an evaluation period. But that doesn’t mean I can’t refine my preseason rankings with a few tweaks and one big time Ballin’ addition. I’m also adding a few names in no particular order at the end. Simply “guys I like”. Last week set the bar pretty high (Charles Rodgers high) so I expect nothing less in discussion this week so keep it up!
Quarterback
1. Aaron Rodgers
2. Phillip Rivers
3. Tom Brady
4. Drew Brees
5. Tony Romo
6. Matt Shaub (Solid discussion about him last week so I’m bumping him up)
7. Donovan McNabb
8. Peyton Manning
9. Matt Ryan
10. Matthew Stafford
GUYS I LIKE – Jay Cutler (alright he’s a douchenozzle of epic proportions but what I’m reading is all good news for him on the fantasy football front), Vince Young, Jason Campbell (big time risk reward but look at his numbers from last year, not too bad on a team that is arguable worse than the Raiders on offense) Read the rest of this entry »
Tags: Fantasy Football, fantasy football advice, fantasy football rankings, Tom Brady
Posted in Fantasy Football, Featured, General NFL | 9 Comments »
By: Scott Henkel on May 4th, 2010
Scott Henkel
There is a saying in the 82D Airborne division: The definition of defense is time to regroup in order to go back on the attack. This is how you should be viewing the “off season” if you are truly all about a title this year. Yes, it is time again to comb through articles large and obscure in order to get that one guy no one else is giving a chance or isn’t tracking that will lead your fantasy football squad to the promise land.
Too lazy to keep your eyes glued to the sports wire? Have no fear! This is my third year writing Ballin’ or Fallin’ where I take an irreverent look at the fantasy football stock of NFL players. I am an unashamed smart ass. So if you’re looking for a few laughs as you’re doing your research go ahead and bookmark SportsOutlaw.com because you’ll want to come back each week during the regular season.
Because this is the preseason I’m going to do rankings and then update said rankings when I get a wild hair. Alright let’s do this:
Quarterback
1. Aaron Rodgers
2. Phillip Rivers
3. Tom Brady (This just in: Brady is still freaking good! He had a “down year” last year with only 4,3k yards and 28 tds. Remember he is now 2 years removed from shredding his knee.)
4. Drew Brees (Defenses need Vicodin for the headaches Brees’ & Co. create)
5. Tony Romo (Dude just has too many weapons)
6. Donovan McNabb (I see you about to tell me I’m a moron. Sit down, Waldo! McNabb has the easiest fantasy football schedule for any quarterback and lest we get swept in the Shanny run game mystique, I remind you that a guy named Elway was pretty prolific under The Rat. Hell, Shanny even made Brian Griese a Pro Bowler)
7. Matt Shaub
8. Peyton Manning
9. Matt Ryan (Huge comeback potential)
10. Matthew Stafford (Not a bad rookie campaign and Detroit has only gotten better on offense and defense. Ow, and he has a guy named Megatron to throw to) Read the rest of this entry »
Tags: 2010 rankings, Fantasy Football, fantasy football rankings, matthew stafford, Tim Tebow, Tom Brady
Posted in Fantasy Football, Featured, General NFL | 8 Comments »
By: Jeremy Miller on Jan 2nd, 2010
Here it is, it all comes down to this final week. I hold onto a slim 1/2 gm lead heading into the final week as I try to finish the regular season above .500. Chris is hoping that I miss and he can take advantage by winning and moving to .500 for the win. It has been a fun season, be sure to check back for playoff locks during the NFL playoffs. Here are your week 17 locks:
Jeremy Miller: Philadelphia +3 @ Dallas
Week 17 is always tricky from a line standpoint due to the unknowns surrounding who will play and who won’t. One thing we know here is that both teams have plenty to play for and they don’t like each other! These team will go all out and when I see Philly getting points against Dallas late in the year I feel pretty good about taking the Eagles! Philadelphia clinches a first round bye with a week this week and I think they will get it. Take the points, but expect the outright win.
Locks Record: 8-8
Chris Slabaugh: Tennessee -4 1/2 @ Seattle
2 words: Chris Johnson
He’s going for the record this week (or at least 2000 yds) so he will see the ball A TON. Jeff Fisher has come out and said as much. I don’t see Seattle having any sort of success stopping him this week so a Tennessee win by a TD or more sounds pretty easy this week.
Locks Record: 6-7-1
Tags: NFL Betting locks, Philadelphia Eagles, Tennessee titans
Posted in General NFL | 2 Comments »
By: Jeremy Miller on Dec 25th, 2009
The locks contest is coming down to the end. Chris pulled out a much needed win last week and Arizona failed to cover in Detroit leaving this a 1/2 game contest again! Can I lock up the contest this week or will this go down to week 17? Here are the Week 16 locks:
Chris Slabaugh: Arizona -14 vs St. Louis
This is the third week in a row for Arizona being selected in the locks. They have been a bust the past two but this week they will cover.
Have you heard of Keith Null before? Me either. St. Louis will struggle in every aspect of this game. Steven Jackson will get shut down, the D will get shredded and Keith Null will find himself on his back all day. Arizona wants to get things right before the playoffs start and barely getting stomped by San Fran and squeaking by Detroit just won’t cut it. Give the points.
Locks Record: 5-7-1
Jeremy Miller: San Diego +3 @ Tennessee
Two of the hottest teams in the NFL outside of Indy. San Diego has nothing to gain, yet it’s all on the line for Tennessee. So you would think at home of Christmas would be a good place for Tennessee right? Well I’m not so sure. San Diego doesn’t seem to be the type of team to let their foot off of the pedal and I expect them to play this to win it. This team has won 17 straight games in December and I think they move that mark to 18. Take the points and watch SD deliver a nice Christmas gift.
Locks Record: 7-8
Tags: Arizona Cardinals, san diego chargers
Posted in General NFL | 5 Comments »
By: Jeremy Miller on Dec 19th, 2009
Last week I continued my back and forth season with a win to climb back to .500. What I have been unable to do to climb over that mark and stay there. We will try to finish strong and do that this week. Chris’s struggles continued last week as he fell 1.5 games back in the season standings by underestimating the 49ers at home on Monday night. Chris’s pick will be coming shortly, but for now I will be posting my lock for week 15:
Jeremy Miller: Arizona -12 @ Detroit
Well the Cardinals laid an egg on Monday night football last week and now head to Detroit to take on a very bad Lions team. I look for the Cards to rebound in a big way this week and handle the Lions with ease. This game will be over by half-time, give the 12 points and take the Cards in a big bounce back win.
Locks Record: 7-7
Chris Slabaugh: New York Giants -3 @ Washington
The Giants need this one bad and I don’t see Washington being able to keep this one close. Eli looked like the foot wasn’t bothering him against Philly so I love Hakeem Nicks being promoted to the #2 starter. He should give the Redskins secondary fits if he can hold on to the ball.
Hopefully by now you’ve learned to bet the opposite of me and you can make some cash as opposed to breaking even by listening to Miller.
Locks Record: 4-7-1
Tags: Arizona Cardinals, NFL Betting locks
Posted in General NFL | 1 Comment »
By: Jeremy Miller on Dec 17th, 2009
This picture is repblished from www.bengals.com
Posted in General NFL | 1 Comment »
By: Scott Henkel on Dec 10th, 2009
All this started when I had to come to a decision on my #2 WR for my money league today. I needed a guy to pair with Calvin Johnson and was left with Steve Breaston, Devin Thomas, Nate Washington, or Donnie Avery. Matchup wise they all are sweet picks. Breaston gets the 29th ranked pass defense in San Francisco and was a 1,000 yard receiver last season. Washington gets a bad St. Louis Ram’s secondary that just go worse this week on a hot Vince Young led team. Devin Thomas is the soup de jour after blowing up for 100 yards and 2 touchdowns and goes against a Raiders squad that is bottom 5 in the NFL for yards given up per catch. Avery, while banged up, gets a statistically terrible Titans secondary. While none of these guys will carry my squad past a tough round one matchup every point counts so the decision deserves considerable thought. I decided that opportunities and targets were the key indicators to use on this decision.
Opportunity comes in the form of what kind of offense the player is in, what kind of defense they face, what kind of quarterback they have throwing the ball, the number option the receiver is in the offense, and the overall health of the player. Looking at my options I decided that Devin Thomas is my best choice as he’s the #2 guy on the Redskins which in his case is a big plus because he won’t face the #2 shut down corner in the NFL yet is still a main option in the red hot Redskin’s passing attack and is fully healthy. Decision is over, right? Not so fast. Read the rest of this entry »
Tags: Devin Thomas, fantasy football who should I start, wide receiver, wide receiver rankings
Posted in Fantasy Football, General NFL, Uncategorized | No Comments »
By: Scott Henkel on Dec 7th, 2009
Ladies and gentlemen and Bengal fans of all ages welcome to the playoffs! By now you’re sweating every move…even your kicker. Well I promise you we will not be discussing kickers here but we are going to take a look at the strong plays this week. I want to remind you of the two basic rules in playoff fantasy football:
1) Start your studs. Benching your studs because of a matchup problem is a big no-go. Yes, once out of a hundred games you will beat the house and foresee a stud’s bad game and smartly replace him with a no-name who will have a career game. It happens every year. But don’t be that guy who decides to throw caution into the wind and bench Anquan Boldin for Austin Collie because you heard the Colts bench their stars after they get the playoffs locked up.
2) At the same time play your matchups when making the tough call between two players. At this point in the season there is enough statistical data out there on every team and player that with enough time and analysis you can make one hell of an educated guess on how a guy will perform. Now, how does Rule #2 reconcile with Rule #1? Easy, matchups are differentiators you can use between two guys, not a reason to start Robert Royal over Antonio Gates because Cleveland has a sweet passing matchup.
I’m about to unleash Hell in December. So strap on your chin straps, jockstraps, or bra straps and lets go to work:
Ballin’
Quarterback
Alex Smith
Alex Smith- Statement Game – a statement game happens when a player with seemingly inferior skill sets taps the asswhuppin’ keg and then asks when he can play them again. Yes, the Seahawks aren’t all that impressive on defense and Vernon Davis is setting franchise records this season. But all that doesn’t explain how Smith has thrown for 7 touchdowns and only 1 pick in the last 3 games. The Niners have the Cardinals on Monday night so he is a gamble start. But he is a hot hand and the Cards let Shaun Hill throw for over 200 yards and a score in Week 1. I’m not buying the idea that the Cards defense is up and coming because Favre had an off game. Aside from the obvious starts if you are considering starting Smith he is a strong play and gets my blessing.
Honorable mention: Chad Henne, Vince Young, Ben Roethlisburger
Runningback
Ryan Grant
Ryan Grant-Well he didn’t get much from Baltimore which will concern some folks. Stephen Jackson ripped Chicago apart. If Jackson can do it with Kyle Boller at the helm there should be no doubt that Grant can go into Chicago with the elements and put up a 20 carry 100+ performance up against the Bears with Aaron Rodgers behind center to keep the defense honest. This is a guy you might have as a RB2 or RB3 depending on your league and will take some blind faith to start over a WR you may have on your roster. But in December I’d rather trust my fantasy football playoff hopes on a Green Bay runningback over a wide receiver any day and twice on Sunday. And Grant’s matchup couldn’t be any more sweet. Roll with him.
Honorable mention: Thomas Jones, Rashard Mendenhall, Fred Jackson
Wide Receiver
Robert Meachem
Robert Meachem- Show of hands; who else had Meachem on their bench this past week? Well not again! Meachem has been very consistent lately and gets a Falcons secondary that allowed both Donovan McNabb to take a half off and let Michael Vick come back to Atlanta and rip it up. Meachem has shown solid to spectacular production and gets a big matchup advantage against a floundering Falcons. I’m putting him in my lineup with confidence this week and I’m doing it over Rock Cartwright. Now given what I just wrote about Grant above that should give you a good indication on how well I feel Meachem can do this weekend.
Honorable mention: Davone Bess (in PPR leagues), Miles Austin, Mike Sims-Walker
Defense
New England Patriots DEF
New England DEF – Chad Henne lit these guys up and they are Ballin’? I know what you’re thinking, one too many Sailor Jerry’s and Cokes. While that may be a fair assesment let’s look a bit deeper than my penchant for rum. The Pats haven’t been themselves lately. Tom hasn’t been the touchdown and baby making machine we’ve grown to know and love. And the defense hasn’t been able to confuse quarterbacks like in days of old. But the Pats aren’t newbies to the playoff scene and they need a win. If they don’t lock up a tight divisional race they may be home watching the playoffs. Add to that motivation the fact that they get to feast on the anemic and turnover prone Panthers (whoever is starting at quarterback) and the signs are there for a great defensive game. Again, don’t go out and start the Pats just because I was able to drum up a good picture of their cheerleaders (which took considerable work on my part…my sacrifice to the craft) but because they are a better option than a marginal defense like the Cards due to matchup.
Honorable mention: New York Jets, Green Bay Packers
So we shook it up a bit this week because if you’re still reading this you’re likely the kind of person who has a specific question on your mind. If you didn’t see your guy or team above this is the time to send me an email at airram98@hotmail.com, post in the comment section below, or start a thread in the forums and I’ll answer your questions with specific and detailed research. I did this last year and the results were 3 championships and I want to do better this year. Best of luck to you and hope to see you in the forums! – Scott
Tags: Fantasy Football, fantasy football playoff
Posted in Fantasy Football, General NFL | 3 Comments »
