Five Keys to Dominating the Draft

So you are heading into your draft this year, wondering what you can do to gain the edge that will put your team over the top. Fantasy football is just like anything else, do your homework, pay attention, absorb all of the information you possibly can, and you will put yourself into a position to succeed. Some will claim that fantasy football is 90% luck and while luck can play a part, remember that luck is nothing more than the outcome of preparation and opportunity. If you are looking to create as many positive breaks for your fantasy team over the long haul you have to be more prepared and more informed than the other players in your league. The draft is your opportunity to set the foundation for your team and give yourself a leg up on the competition. A good draft alone can not win you the championship, but a bad draft can ensure that you don’t. So what should you be looking to do in your draft to ensure that you have a solid foundation for your championship run? Here are my top five keys to dominating your draft:

1. Know your league scoring and roster requirements and adjust your personal rankings according to them.

There is no such thing as a one size fits all player ranking. The first thing you need to do in preparation of your draft is to evaluate your scoring system and starting roster requirements. These two items can have a drastic affect on your player rankings if done correctly. From a scoring standpoint the most important variable to look at is if your league awards a point per reception (PPR). This will have a significant impact on your RB, WR, and TE rankings. Possession WR’s and pass catching RB’s will gain the most from the inclusion of PPR. What this means is if you do not consider this while making your player rankings you will be at a disadvantage to someone who does. When looking at on-line player rankings pay attention to the assumed scoring system that was used for them. Another important scoring variable is whether TD passes count as 4 or 6 points. Leagues that award 6 points per passing TD will be much more QB friendly than those who award 4 pts and thus become more important in your draft strategy. Other scoring variables to look out for are if the league is abnormally weighted towards yards or TD’s (basic scoring for yards is 1 pt for 10 yards rushing or receiving and 1 pt for 25 yards passing), the presence of return yardage points, and bonus points for yardage level (i.e. 5 pts for a 100 yard rusher).

Roster requirements is another very important variable. Knowing how many RB’s and WR’s you can or have to start is the most important. Another important variable is if TE is a required position or can be started as a WR. Knowing how many WR’s and RB’s you need start will help you figure out position scarcity and the relative demand for each position. For example, leagues that allow you to start 3 RB’s in your starting line-up create a significant demand on the RB position and you can expect them to go early and often in the draft (even more so than normal). On the flip side, leagues that allow for 3 or 4 WR spots can do the same thing to the WR position. Knowing the specifics of your league will allow you to adjust accordingly.

2. Tier your player ranking prior to your draft

Simple player ranking are not enough as you head into your draft. Once you have completed your personal player rankings you should go back through your rankings and break them into player tiers. That is, groups of players that in your mind hold similar value. Without this your player rankings are of limited usefulness because it does not allow you to gauge the point where value at a certain position has dropped off during the draft. What this does is allow you to quickly determine what value remains at a specific position and if you can afford to wait on that position or not. This ranking method is helpful in extracting the maximum value possible in your draft. This will also help you anticipate position runs and compare how you value players of various positions against each other.

3. Start position runs, do not follow them.

This is where it is extremely helpful to have your position tiers done. It happens in every draft, a run of players at a specific position starts and it forces owners to panic and follow that run out of fear if they do not they will get left out at that postion and be at a disadvantage. In reality, it is the complete opposite in most cases. By reaching on a player at a specific position due to a player run can likely get you the worst value possible out of that pick. For example, say you are sitting towards the end of the first round and the owners in your league were extremely RB focused. You come up at pick number 11 and all 10 picks so far have been RB’s. A common mistake is to panic and select a second rate RB with your first pick. You are already at a disadvatage at that position and have not gained an advantage to offset it. Instead of following the herd, start a new run. In this example go with your highest rated WR, by doing this you have created an advantage at your WR1 position with the available RB talent weakened already. This is an easy example, but remember to apply this premise throughout the entire draft. If you are at the top of a position tier and there are players in a higher tier avaialble at another position, take the best player avaialbel and ignore the desire to follow the run.

4. Select the right balance.

This step in your drafting strategy deals with what mix of players you want. Are you a high-risk owner willing to take gamble after gamble in search of the highest upside possible, or do you prefer a conservative approach in which you will take the safe pick and forgo some of the upside of more risky selections? In truth, any strategy can work if applied correctly, however the best mix to strive for is a healthy mix of both types of players. The right balance in your draft strategy is to select a mix of players. That allows you to take players that will meet or exceed their draft positions. The best way to do this is to lean towards the conservative route in the early rounds. Take safe picks with your first 2-3 selection to build a solid foundation you can count on. They may not end up being the most flashy picks available but you have a good feeling you know what you are going to get with them. This will allow you to switch gears in the middle rounds (4-7) and take some high risk gambles on players with the upside to significantly out perform their draft position. Taking your risks later rather than earlier gives you the opportunity to maximize your draft value while keeping a healthy balance in safe and risky picks. To win your league, you will need both.

5. Stay Flexible

Being prepared and having a plan is very important but don’t over think yourself either. You may not be an owner who likes to draft QB’s early, but if you are sitting in the third round and Tom Brady is still on the board you may want to think about adjusting. Be flexible in your approach and don’t force yourself into a specific pick just becasue that was your original plan despite what appears to be a better option available. Another thing to avoid here is going into the draft looking to draft specific positions in specific rounds. You can have a general idea, but remember to watch your tiers and the position runs that have occured.

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