2008 Buy Low/Sell High - Quarterbacks By Brandon Anderson
7/29/08
Email Brandon Fantasy football is like one giant stock market. And just like in the
market, it’s all about value, value, value. In fantasy football, a player is
only as valuable as the spot where he was drafted. Tom Brady was an
unbelievable asset to every team he was on last season, but part of that was
the fact that he was the third or fourth player drafted by most of those
teams, an addition to a pair or trio of potential studs already. Brady
would’ve been worth the pick in the top 5 for sure, but his draft value
simply wouldn’t have been anywhere near as high. No matter how good a player is, value is always relative to their draft
position. If you were confident Sports Outlaw’s ranking of Tom Brady at #1
last year was correct and took him in the 1st round, you actually made a bad
pick. You threw away a full round or two of draft value when you could’ve
easily got Brady later and added higher value players earlier. Later in this season, buy low and sell high will be a strategy that
applies to players struggling or ready to break out, or to those who may be
at the peak of their value. For now, this is all about Average Draft
Position (ADP) again. Which players should see a boost in value, and which
ones are already at their peak ready for a drop? Sell High!!!
Tom Brady, New England
ADP 1.09
Tom Brady put together the greatest QB season in fantasy history – shouldn’t
that be a bargain at the 9th pick in the draft? It’s not that simple.
Quarterbacks are rarely worth your first pick in a fantasy draft, and Brady
in 2007 will be no different. History simply says that a quarterback like
Brady coming off of a monster season is in for a return to normalcy. That
means another good year by Tom Brady, probably another in the top 7 QBs, but
certainly no guarantee at #1, and a far cry from what he was producing last
year. Look for more on this in the upcoming “Anatomy of a Top 10 QB”
article, but for now I beg you to pass on Tom Brady in the first round of
your draft. His value can only go down from here. Buy Low!!!
Drew Brees, New Orleans
ADP 3.10
Drew Brees has been a superstar fantasy QB before. Now he has a stud TE at
his disposal again in Jeremy Shockey and could well make a run at the #1
spot at the position. You already know we at Sports Outlaw love him if you
read the sleepers article. The problem is that people are going to jump on
Brees and hold tight if he hits a big game or two early. Do you think anyone
would’ve traded Tom Brady early in last season when he was exploding? If you
want Brees, your draft may be the cheapest you pay for him all season. Sell High!!!
Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh
ADP 4.10
Every year it happens. The top stud QBs go off the board and then, rather
than waiting several rounds for the rest of the QBs to fall, folks insist on
continuing to draft the QBs in that 6-10 range with their mid round picks.
This year it looks like Big Ben who is being overrated by drafters.
Everything went right for Roethlisberger last year. He had a career high
rushing total, he stayed basically healthy all year for the first time in
his career, and he set a career high in passing TDs by a whopping 14! That
included two fluke games, particularly one in the awful rain on Monday Night
Football where he put up 5 TDs against one of the best pass defenses in the
league in Baltimore when they just couldn’t stay on their feet. Also it
should be noted that after finishing in the top 8 in rushing totals each of
the previous three seasons, the Steelers flukeishly dropped to 22nd in the
NFL last year. This year they’ve added a big goal line RB in Rashard
Mendenhall, and Big Ben is due for an injury especially without All-Pro
guard Alan Faneca protecting him. Last season everything went exactly right
for Big Ben and he finished as the #6 passer. This year he’s being drafted
as the #6 guy. Yikes. So how do you spell bust? R-O-E-T-H-L… well, you get
the idea. Sell High!!!
Derek Anderson, Cleveland
ADP 5.10
Think of this as Big Ben part II. Anderson is another guy who saw everything
go right last year to finish among the top quarterbacks. Don’t expect it to
work so easily this time. There will be no more 51-45 shootouts against
Cincinnati, and there will be no more last place schedule or teams
overlooking the Browns as they prepared for Sunday. Even in the second half
of last season, teams started to catch onto Anderson and the Browns. While
he scored 19 TDs in the first half of the year, that dropped to 13 in the
second half, and the passing yardage dropped significantly as well. Anderson
is a solid quarterback, but he’s no one you should strain for on draft day.
Wait until after his brutal starting schedule of Dallas, Pittsburgh, and
Baltimore, when his value should be at its low point for the season, then
swoop in if you still like him. Buy Low!!!
Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia
ADP 6.08
Even if you don’t buy that McNabb is a sleeper top 5 QB who could stay
healthy most of the year, he starts out every season well and should have a
few very good games early. If you are concerned about the healthy, rest
assured that you’ll find a buyer for your top 5 QB around week 5 or 6, and
you’ll get plenty more in value than the third string RB or WR you would’ve
taken in the 6th round instead. McNabb should start the year out with a huge
game home against the Rams, and even after one game you’ll see his value go
up from there. Buy Low!!!
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay
ADP: 10.06
If you were a new quarterback making your first starts in the NFL, would you
want to do it with a top line, a great set of receivers, and a strong run
game to take off the pressure? Would you want your first game to be at home
against one of the most porous secondaries in the league last year,
Minnesota, and then to follow that up with an even worse defense in Detroit?
Rodgers’ confidence and numbers could be high after that start, and then
sky’s the limit for this guy. Buy Low!!!
Brett Favre, ?
ADP: 15.05
There’s really no reason to go into the Brett Favre saga more than its
already been discussed by seemingly every person in the country. Bottom
line, he is going to be one of the last picks in your draft, but he’s been a
top 10 QB pretty much every season he’s played as an NFL starter. Upside?
Yeah you got some upside. If nothing happens with Favre, just cut bait and
pick up that crappy RB you were hoping to land in the 15th round. Comment on this
article
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