2008 Buy Low/Sell High - Wide Receivers By Brandon Anderson
7/31/08
Email Brandon No position in football is subject to the whims of owners more than wide
receivers. A player’s value can change in just one or two games from
completely off the radar to a top 10 performer, and then right back again a
couple weeks later. If you are a trader in your league, there’s no other
place where you can play the market any better. If you carefully buy the
right players when their value is low, then let them explode in a game and
sell high for another low player, you can start with a guy off waivers and
work your way up to a top 10 WR! There’s nothing quite as satisfying as
that. For now, this is all about draft value. Some of these receivers will see
their value cut in half in the first few weeks, and others may see their
value double or triple. Who should you target or avoid in your draft? Sell High!!!
Randy Moss, New England
ADP 1.08
Listen, you are going to be hard pressed to find a bigger Randy Moss
supporter on the planet than me. As a Vikings homer, he’s my favorite
player, and he was Sports Outlaw’s top sleeper receiver last year. But this
is all about value, and Moss’ value simply can’t be any higher than it is
right now. He absolutely will not repeat last year’s season, and he probably
won’t come close. You’ll never get the trade value you can get right now for
Moss. Furthermore, you can bet defenses will be honing in on Moss to star
the year and force anyone else on the Patriots to beat them. If you want
Moss, and I believe you do still this season, you can get him cheaper later. Sell High!!!
Braylon Edwards, Cleveland
ADP 2.08
Edwards is a risky pick this year. He did not have a ton of yardage last
season, and he had only a moderate number of catches, but most owners will
overlook that because of the huge TD numbers. TD numbers are very difficult
to predict and keep consistent, much harder than yardage and reception
totals. The chances are extremely low that Edwards will manage to average a
TD a game this year, and that means his value is at its peak – never a great
time to invest your pick. Buy Low!!!
Steve Smith, Carolina
ADP 3.01
We’ve been here before, so find some more details in the WR Sleepers piece.
Suffice it to say that Steve Smith is still an absolute superstar, and both
he and Delhomme are healthy and primed for a big year. Barring a
catastrophic injury, this is low as Smith’s value will be all year. All it’s
going to take is one huge game week one, and this guy will be untouchable. Buy Low!!!
Chad Johnson, Cincinnati
ADP 3.06
Chad Johnson is a prima donna, but he is a professional, and he has finished
in the top 10 receivers several years running now. He always seems to
explode for a huge game at some point in the first month. Whether you keep
him all season or not is up to you, but you draft him and keep him until
that huge game? Like with Smith above, everyone will forgive and forget with
one big 2-TD 150-yard performance and you’ll get a king’s ransom for CJ
again. Sell High!!!
Plaxico Burress, New York Giants
ADP 4.01
Go back and read the Braylon Edwards bit and take it a step further here.
Plaxico had even less receptions and less yardage than Edwards, and he also
had an abnormally high number of touchdowns. On top of it, Burress had one
huge game last year that boosted his numbers as well. This guy now has a
Super Bowl ring and may not be quite so excited to fight through injuries
and keep an even keel with Eli Manning on the sidelines. There is simply
more risk involved here than you need for such a high pick. Look elsewhere. Sell High!!!
Brandon Marshall, Denver
ADP 4.02
Or should we say Brandon McMarshall after that little incident this
offseason? Marshall just can’t seem to stay out of trouble, whether it’s
legal problems or some retarded injury or whatever else. His value is
already falling quickly, and it should continue to fall until Marshall gets
back onto the field and proves otherwise. The way things are going, it
doesn’t look like that may happen for a good while, if it does happen at all
this season. Buy Low!!!
Marvin Harrison, Indianapolis
ADP 5.10
You’ve probably noticed a pattern here. Some of the stud top producing WRs
make up the bulk of the low buys so far, and there’s a reason. Harrison may
be the best buy of them all. It’s just going to take a couple of solid back
to back weeks, not even necessarily a huge one, and Harrison will be right
back into the top 5 or 10 in most owners’ eyes. And for the first time in
his entire career, defenses may not actually be keying on Harrison, so he
may see some weaker coverage and get off to a fast start as well! Buy Low!!!
Joey Galloway, Tampa Bay
ADP 8.09
Maybe you’ve heard some of the rumors about a possible QB addition coming to
the Buccaneers. I don’t recall the name, but I think it was some Brett fella?
Galloway in the 8th round is a no brainer pick right now. He is a Steady
Eddie, a safe WR3 type each week, and a fine 8th round pick if nothing
changes. But if Mr. Favre does end up heading to Tampa, you’re looking at a
receiver who will immediately shoot up into the fifth round, maybe even into
the fourth! You simply can’t pass up that upside. Buy Low!!!
Derrick Mason, Baltimore
ADP 11.11
I double and triple checked because I can’t quite believe my eyes on this
one. Everyone knows Derrick Mason is not going to score double digits, and
he’s not even a threat to do much from week to week other than the usual
boring 75 yards or so. But that sure does make a solid and steady WR3. And
last year this guy was not only a top 20 fantasy WR, but he was targeted the
4th most of any receiver in the entire league! Not much upside in the usual
convention here, but it’s hard not to love this guy as a cheap backup. Comment on this
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