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Drafting From The TopBy Brandon Anderson Well you’ve made up your rankings, found some diamonds in the rough, crossed some busts off your lists, and read more opinions on more players than you can count. Now at long last it’s draft time, and despite all of your overpreparation, you’re not sure you are ready. Do you stick with the stalwart RB/RB start? Do you mix things up with a pair of WRs? Do you go QB early or wait? And how do things change if you get a top, middle, or bottom pick when that number gets drawn out of the hat? This series will attempt to answer some of those questions for you. We will be operating under the assumption of a 12 team league with 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, and 1 D for starting lineups. We’ll assume standard scoring with 4-point pass TDs and 6 for all other TDs, normal yardage points, and no negatives or points per reception. So it’s five minutes before your draft, and it’s your lucky year. You have drawn one of the first few picks of the draft. Even though there seems to be a “big five” RB list in the first round, we’re going to assume you drew pick #1-#4 to split this up evenly. So how should you build your team? We’ll walk you through step by step. This is more about strategy than specific players, so be sure to check out the other articles for more information about why some of these guys are great people to take. Round 1 If you don’t know who to take here, you’ve got a lot of ground to make up. It’s going to be a running back, and they’re going to anchor your team. Now the key in these early rounds is that most of these early picks will not be able to win the league for you on their own, but a busted pick sure can lose it in a hurry. Don’t be blinded by the flashy upside. Take the safe sure producing pick and you will go a long ways. With that in mind, LaDainian Tomlinson is absolutely the pick if he is available at #1 obviously, or by any stroke of luck, any time thereafter. Tomlinson is averaging over 2000 yards and 20+ TDs in the last three seasons. Even your most generous projections for other stud RBs won’t go that far. Is Tomlinson aging, and does he carry some risk? Sure, absolutely. But nothing is more certain in fantasy football today. If Tomlinson is gone, just about every publication out there is going to urge you to take Adrian Peterson. I beg you to reconsider. Peterson had just six games last season with over 70 yards rushing, and he wouldn’t have even made the top 20 fantasy RBs without those two monster record-breaking games. This is a guy on a team with no legitimate QB or passing game at all, and the defenses will be keying on him so that they’re not the next ones to show up in the record books. And we haven’t even mentioned Peterson’s major injury history, a guy who hasn’t played a full season since his freshman year of college. Peterson may have plenty of flash and upside, and he may well be the most talented player in your draft, but that doesn’t make him the best one to pick. When it comes to building your team, you need sure production, and as a Vikings fan it pains me to say that Peterson is simply not the guy to do that for you right now. What you need is a safe sure bet, a guy who will rack up tons of yards and plenty of TDs to go with it. You need to go with Joseph Addai or Brian Westbrook. Addai does not get quite the yardage that you’d think before looking at his numbers, but he’s still very good, and only one back got more goal line touches than him last season. And Westbrook has become a fantasy football force, a yardage monster and a consistent double digit TD. Both of these guys tend to get banged up and miss a game or two, but both of them are consistent point scorers from week to week, and they’re safe, sure options. If you have a top pick and Tomlinson is off the board, take your pick between Addai and Westbrook and build your team from there. You’re probably wondering, what about Steven Jackson? Truth be told, SJax is actually my favorite runner of the entire group, Tomlinson included, and I think he’s got the highest upside of any of them in Al Saunders’ offense. But the holdout is looming at this point, and he’s also a big injury question mark, so he does not fit the safe and steady mold we are looking for here. I won’t stop you from taking Jackson, but be sure you have a 3rd string RB ready just in case. Rounds 2 and 3 Because your picks are so close together from here on out, we will treat them in pairs the rest of the way. By the time it gets to your 2nd pick, all of the stud RBs will be gone, and so too will several others masquerading as studs. Don’t panic here. With any luck, there should be a big group of star WRs that you can look at, and you can get a RB just as good as one here as you’d get in the 4th round later on. It’s time to load up with a pair of top 10 stud WRs here. With your first pick, it would be great to snag Larry Fitzgerald or Andre Johnson. Both of them are young and have the upside to finish as the #1 fantasy WR, and both of them get good yardage and great TD numbers. After that, you’ve still got a very good group of guys to pick from. There’s the pair of Bengals receivers, Chad Johnson and TJ Houshmandzadeh. At least of them will finish in the top 10, and the other probably won’t be far away. There’s Marques Colston, that third-year rising star out in New Orleans. And don’t count out Steve Smith in Carolina. Even with the two game suspension, he is a superstar WR when healthy, and you can get by without him for a few games to start the year. You need to figure out what order you like these WRs in and then snag two of them here. As long as you don’t end up with both Bengals, you should be set! Rounds 4 and 5 Well it’s certainly time to get that second starting RB here, and thankfully you are in luck because there’s plenty of upside to go around here. A few of these guys will probably be gone, but chances are good that you’ll at least have a couple of the following players on the board to pick from: Michael Turner, Darren McFadden, Earnest Graham, and Willie Parker. The first three are all in my top 10 RBs, and Parker is not too far off if he can regain some of his TD form. This may come as a surprise to you, but it shouldn’t. Last year if you had a high pick and waited until this area for your 2nd RB, you probably ended up taking someone like Marion Barber or Adrian Peterson, maybe Jamal Lewis if you wanted a steadier bet. Sound familiar? You can do just fine here. You might be tempted to take a 3rd RB here since you feel your 2nd one is weak. I can’t blame you if you do, especially if another of those four names are still on the board. But personally I would not be able to pass on the stellar WR options still there: probably at least a few of Calvin Johnson, Marvin Harrison, Jerricho Cotchery, and Dwayne Bowe. Again three of those guys are in my top 10 and the other is close behind. Each of these guys has plenty of upside, and each of them (outside of Calvin, yet) has been a pretty consistent point scorer as well. Do you really want to take a backup RB here when you can leave round five with a sick trio of WRs like Fitzgerald, Colston, and Megatron? Don’t burn that backup pick on a guy who will accumulate points on your bench. Load up that lineup. Here are a few teams you might have at this point of your draft…
Rounds 6 and 7 If you’ve followed along so far, you should have your starting 2 RBs and 3 WRs at this point. It’s time to get a usable RB3 because there isn’t going to be much left by the time you pick again near the end of the 8th. Luckily, you should be able to snag one of the last starting caliber guys before they disappear. If you took a riskier guy as your RB2, then someone like Fred Taylor here may be a smart pick. If you went with a more stable guy like Willie Parker and feel a hunger for some upside, maybe you should try one of the rookie NFC North guys, Matt Forte or Kevin Smith. Either way, these guys probably won’t break out but they should at least give you the depth you need at RB. In the 7th round, you’ve got some options. You probably have noticed that we have yet to even look at QBs and TEs. The biggest reason for that is it’s difficult to build a draft strategy round one of these players since it’s such a specific player to expect to be there. The key on these two positions is to let them come to you. Whenever a guy becomes a great value in a draft at QB or TE, then it’s the time to take one. It is always a bad idea to follow a QB or TE run. If you have that early 3rd round pick and want to try your hand with Tony Romo or Drew Brees, that is not a bad idea – just be aware that you’re starting a 7th round WR now instead of a guy like Colston or Houshmandzadeh. If you want the stud TE and want to take the risk on someone like Gates in the 4th, then you’re going to have to use a 7th round WR as a starter and wait even longer on your QB. You can’t have everything. If you’ve got one of those early picks, I wouldn’t sniff QB or TE at all unless Winslow somehow falls to your 4th round pick, and then advance according to your own plan. That being said, the 7th round is a fabulous time for you to look at that QB spot. It’s a chance for you to get a guy with a ton of upside, without investing that early pick. You waited past the middle round QBs like Ben Roethlisberger, Derek Anderson, and Matt Hasselbeck. Good riddance. They were last year’s hot stuff and will probably miss the top 10 this year in a high turnover QB world. Instead how about the high upside veterans like Donovan McNabb, Marc Bulger, or Brett Favre? Just because they’ve been around the block doesn’t mean they’re no good. Favre has finished in the top 10 forever, and both McNabb and Bulger are top 10 locks if they stay healthy. Go ahead and take one, and you can always get one of the many consistent backups later on to stabilize your team. You may just end up with a top 5 QB for a very cheap price. Rounds 8 and 9 It’s just about time for you to be on your own. You should be three deep now at RB and WR, and you probably have a QB. If you’ve already taken a TE, or if you have an extra WR, then you will need to pick up the slack to get whatever you’re missing here. Otherwise, it’s time to take that starting tight end. Don’t just overlook this position completely or you are leaving points on the board. Here again you would be advised to take a risk and grab the upside, since there’s a bunch of mid-tier TEs and you can always get a second stabilizer in a few rounds. Todd Heap is one of my biggest sleepers, and he is a top 5 TE lock if he stays healthy this season. If you want the flash and upside, go ahead and try your hand at Vernon Davis or Tony Scheffler. Now that it’s round nine, it’s time to start grabbing your favorite sleepers and build depth. Some of you may like to take a top defense here. I would advise against it but don’t have time to get into it here… but top defenses almost never repeat from year to year, so good luck with that. You are better off building depth and getting those handcuffs and sleepers. One of my favorite sleepers is Ray Rice out in Baltimore. You’d do well to take him, or you can find someone else you like. Here are some possible rosters you may now have. Good luck! Team #1 Team #2 Team #3 | |
