2008 Fantasy Football Quarterback Sleepers By Brandon Anderson
7/28/08
Email Brandon It’s sleeper time here at Sports Outlaw and we’re going
to start with the quarterbacks first. If you need a reminder about how
important a QB can be to your team, look no further than last year, where
Tom Brady was a 4th round pick and the fourth QB off of most
draft boards. But if you had him, you know that he alone could carry your
team many weeks. Don’t expect anyone to equal those numbers this year, but
quarterbacks can score points by the handfuls, so a good sleeper can go a
long way. As always, sleepers can come from any round for
drafters here at Sports Outlaw. It doesn’t just have to be someone from the
10th or 15th round. If you take a QB in the 4th
and he performs like a 1st rounder, then you have a sleeper.
We’ll be watching the Average Draft Position (ADP) of each player, which
shows the normal spot each player is taken off the board in a standard 12
team league, to find the best values. Last year, Sports Outlaw’s top three QB sleepers were
Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, and Brett Favre. Those QBs available in the 4th,
9th, and 9th rounds respectively finished as the #1,
#6, and #8 players at their position. So who are we watching this year? Drew Brees, New Orleans
ADP 3.10
Only two quarterbacks have finished in the top six in each of the past
two years – Peyton Manning and Drew Brees. In fact, Brees has finished #3
and #4 during the past two seasons, and he was essentially equal to Manning
last year despite the fact that he started the year out in awful fashion,
throwing just 1 TD in his first 4 games combined. Yet he is being drafted as
the fourth QB off the boards a full round and a half after Manning,
sometimes even into the 4th round. This season Brees gets back a
healthier Deuce McAllister and, more importantly, another great target in
tight end Jeremy Shockey. Last season the fourth QB off the boards ended up
at the top. Don’t be too shocked if Brees duplicates the task this year. Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia
ADP 6.08
McNabb struggled last season, with the second worst fantasy ppg of his
career. He missed a few games again as he worked on returning from the
devastating knee injury that took half of his 2006 season, and he played
like he was looking over his shoulder at rookie Kevin Kolb for much of the
season. This year McNabb is a full year removed from that ACL injury and
should be healthy, confident, and ready to go. Over his career, McNabb has
averaged over 20 ppg with his running threat added to solid passing numbers.
That will put him in the top 3 or 4 every year in ppg, so it’s health that
is the concern again. Last year the team learned to run the ball more
effectively, and McNabb also had a full offseason to play with new target
Kevin Curtis. As always with McNabb, you should be sure to grab a good
backup QB just to be safe, but if his health clicks all year, you won’t want
to miss on him at his late draft spot. Matt Leinart / Kurt Warner, Arizona
ADP 10.10 / 14.01
It’s time to get creative. A lot of people are going to shy away from
Matt Leinart here, having got burned by him big time last year. Those people
must not have been smart enough to stash away Kurt Warner or snag him off
waivers when Leinart went down early with an injury. Two years ago, a combo
of Leinart and Warner would have been the #8 QB in the league. Last year
they would have been #5, even better. Even Warner alone finished in the top
10 last despite the fact that he started only 11 games. Arizona has not been
able to run the ball effectively for years, and there’s no reason to assume
that will change this season. So they’ll keep chucking the rock and racking
up yardage for your team. You may think it’s dumb to take a backup NFL
quarterback in the 14th round, but if it locks you into a “top 10
quarterback,” then maybe you can forget about that deep sleeper WR you were
gunning for. If you’re feeling really gutsy, you can wait until the 8th
or 9th and grab your backup, then take Leinart and Warner as your
“starter” in the following rounds. Jake Delhomme, Carolina
ADP 10.08
Quick, who had the top three fantasy ppg among quarterbacks last season?
If this were a question somewhere else, you’d almost certainly have guessed
Brady, Manning, and Romo in some order. But #3 was actually Jake Delhomme at
just under 20 points per game, racking up the huge points early last season
before missing most of the year with an arm injury. Delhomme is no spring
chicken, but the reports out of camp have him looking healthier and readier
than ever. He’s being drafted as the 16th QB off the boards which
means you can take him easily as your backup and trade your starter later on
when Delhomme shows he’s just as good. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay
ADP 10.06
Yep, a third sleeper quarterback from the 10th round, and all
three guys look like potential fantasy starters to me. Plus with Rodgers,
you may see his value dip even further with the Brett Favre saga that
continues to progress deep into the summer. Rodgers has never started a game
during his NFL career behind iron man Favre, but that doesn’t mean he is a
rookie. He has bided his time and learned from the best, and it showed last
season during limited time against Dallas. Now he steps into a situation
that could hardly be any better for a new starter – one of the best lines in
the league, two great WRs, and a strong power run game, to go along with a
very good defense. Don’t expect a flashback to Favre’s glory years, but
Rodgers should do just fine and may end up in the top 10 fantasy QBs right
where Favre has lived all these years. Brodie Croyle, Kansas City
ADP undrafted
Looking for a real long shot on draft day? How about Brodie Croyle,
finally starting fulltime out in Kansas City. Last year the Chief QBs
combined were nothing special but still finished in the top 20 at the
position, and that was without any real starting RB at all for much of the
season with the loss of star runner Larry Johnson. LJ is back this year, and
even if not at full power, he should open the passing lanes up. Meanwhile
Dwayne Bowe is a budding star at receiver, and Tony Gonzalez is Ole Faithful
at tight end. Solid run game, great young receiver, star tight end, and a
young no name QB on no one’s radar… sound familiar? Most people looked past
Derek Anderson on draft day last year. In the past six years, 8 QBs have
gone from #29 or worse in the rankings into the top 10. If anyone can pull
off that feat this year, it’s Mr. Croyle. Even if you don’t believe me, if
you spend that early pick on a stalwart like Brady or Manning, what have you
got to lose?
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