Take It To The Bank - Week 5

By Jeremy Miller/Brandon Anderson
10/01/08

With week four in the books, Jeremy Miller and Brandon Anderson are back with their wild and crazy predictions they feel are as good as gold. Of course, they don’t always agree on these and there is sure to be some disagreements along the way. So where are they going with their predictions this week? Read on to see the issues that these two feel you can take to the bank for week four and beyond.

From Jeremy Miller:

• Santana Moss is no joke, he’s one of the most consistent WR’s going right now.
  This past week was the first time in 7 games that Santana did not reach the endzone, and all he did was rack up 145 receiving yards. That makes 7 straight games with at least 1 TD or 100 yards. Despite the recent hot steak, Moss continues to fly under the radar and avoids the conversations of the top fantasy receivers. That is good news for fantasy owners trying to land him. The savvy owner may even be able to mix him into a larger deal and end up with a steal in the process. Moss is a better option than many other flashier WR’s that other’s perceive to be better options.

  • Bounced Check – Yes, Santana Moss is one of the most consistent WR right now… right now being the operative. But if you’ve owned Moss in the past, you know how this plays out. In 2003, Moss had a four game stretch where he had 27 catches, 474 yards, and 6 TDs. In the other 12 games combined, he had just 631 yards and 4 TDs total. Yes, he still finished among the top 10 WRs but it was mostly that one killer stretch. His other big season, 2003, Moss had a five game stretch with 34 catches, 647 yards, and 5 TDs… but just 836 yards and 4 TDs in the remaining 11 games (and 160/3 of that was in one other huge game). Enough with the numbers. Moss can get hot for stretches, and you just lucked upon the 3rd such hot stretch in his career. You would be crazy to trade for him now at his current ticket price, and you should be selling him for an underachieving stud like Wayne or Owens or a top RB and you’ll be very glad you turned fool’s gold into treasure later. – Brandon Anderson

• The Buffalo Bills are this year Cinderella’s story in the NFL, and it’s not midnight yet.
  Have you looked at the Bills schedule? The Bills may not be flashy, but they sure are effective. With their 4-0 start, they are headed for at least 12 wins this season and will be the surprise team enjoying a first round bye in the playoffs. Their defense will punch you in the mouth, Marshawn Lynch makes their ball control offense go, and Trent Edwards does enough to allow the defense and running game to win the game.

• No one should be happier about the firing of Scott Linehan than Steven Jackson owners.
  Don’t get me wrong, the Rams are still a poor football team, but Linehan went away from his one true weapon way too often and I don’t think Jim Haslett will make that same mistake. Look for Jackson to become the focal point of this offense once agan and put up the type of numbers that many have expected from him. Week 4 was a good sign, the rest will look very similar. At the end of the year, Steven Jackson will be among the top 5 back in your fantasy league.

• The time to sell DeSean Jackson is now.
  Jackson has been a big part of the Philadelphia passing game so far and his production has been a nice bonus for the fantasy owners who grabbed him. Well I hope you enjoyed while it lasted, the other Philly receivers are getting healthy and when Curtis comes back expect Jackson to end up in the slot. He will still be dangerous from there, but his production overall will take a hit and he will become very inconsistent. Many owners will buy this guy right now, trade him away now while you can get good value for him.

From Brandon Anderson:

• LaDainian Tomlinson is not “back,” and he is not going to finish as the #1 back in fantasy football either.
  Something just doesn’t seem right still. Yes Tomlinson has scored 2 TDs in back to back weeks, and I suppose as long as he keeps that up, nothing else really matters too much. But this is not the Tomlinson of old, and it’s not even close. This last week a late 41 yard TD made his stats look solid when he was really having a pretty mediocre 60 yards and a TD game before that. Before that it was 2 TDs and 67 yards against the Jets, about the same thing Edgerrin James did on Sunday. And before that it was a measly 26 yards and no TDs against the same defense Larry Johnson just gashed for a pair of TDs and almost 200 yards. Even with the long run, Tomlinson is still averaging 3.8 ypc and he’s on pace for only about 200 receiving yards, almost half as much as his career low. If I had this guy, I would be trying to find a buyer and get the gold mine while I still could.

  • Bounced Check - Tomlinson has not looked like he has in the past, yet he still finds a way to get it done and that is why you’ll regret getting rid of him. LT is still the best back in fantasy the rest of the way and while I’m not going to lock him down as the clear #1, he will finish among the top three backs in the league when it’s all said and done. One of the main reasons is that there are simply not the dominant RB performances as we have seen in the past. Despite his mediocre start to the season, LT is only around 14 points behind the top RB in the league. He will get healthier and this offense will get rolling. This will lead to several traditional LT games and his dominance will continue for at least one more year. – Jeremy Miller

• This is the time to go out and get Darren McFadden and ride him all the way through the fantasy playoffs.
  It is a fickle world, and McFadden has not got many looks so far. In fact the one good game probably only raised your opponents’ expectations and made them even more disappointed since then with D-Mac has done very little. Lest you forget, though, McFadden has been banged up all but one half this season, and he finally has a bye week to get healthy. Upon his return, he’ll see the Saints, Jets, and Falcons within the next month and then he gets the juicy fantasy playoff slate of the Raiders, Patriots, and Texans. You can bet the Raiders will find a way to let McFadden play some of that Ronnie Brown style single wing back offense as well… should be fun!

• I would not sell high on Brett Favre or any of my Jets.
  No, you shouldn’t expect 6 TDs from Favre every week, or even 3 from Coles or 2 from Cotchery for that matter. Even so, you should expect that this offense is on track now and will be even more so after this bye week to get 100% in sync. There’s no way I’d trade one of my Jets right now, not with the upcoming schedule of Bengals, Raiders, Chiefs, Bills, and Rams between now and about Thanksgiving time. Sure if someone offered me Tony Romo for Brett Favre, I’d absolutely take it. No player is truly untradable. But I think I’d stick with my Jets unless I got overwhelmed like that.

• Sell Randy Moss while you can still get something, anything for him.
  We’ve all seen bad Moss before, and we’re about to see him again. Moss has approximately one good drive the entire season, and by approximately I mean exactly. Matt Cassel simply isn’t talented enough to get the ball to Moss consistently, and the last few games are a sign of things to come. Now Moss gets to face Nate Clements, Antonio Cromartie, and Champ Bailey the next three weeks. Combine a good corner with a bad QB and Moss should be quiet again and again. By the time he gets past that stretch, he’ll have quit on the team if he hasn’t faked an injury or been cut already. If someone is still willing to buy, you should go ahead and sell. Maybe you can get Chad Johnson or something for him.

• The game of the week this weekend will be the unlikely match-up of Buffalo at Arizona.
  The Cardinals are reeling after a hot 2-0 start as they have lost two games in a row and were down 31-0 to the Jets this past weekend. The Bills could hardly have dreamt up a better start to their season, still perfect, and this should be a good early season test for this team. It’s a road game and a trip out West, and it should be a good chance for both teams to see where they’re really at. If the Bills win, they head to the bye week 5-0 and in great position to win the wide open AFC East while the Cards waste a good start and fall right back to where they are every year. The Cardinals need this one badly, and Kurt Warner could be playing for his job. Look for the Cards to win a surprisingly fun shootout that most of the nation will not get on their TVs anyway.