Fantasy Football Busts - Wide Receivers By
Brandon Anderson
8/19/07
A Sports Outlaw Exclusive Well have you recovered from the shock of yesterday’s
busts article yet? Hopefully you have because you’re going to see some more
big names today. The fact is that not every pick in the first few rounds is
that safe. Most of these early picks really can’t win your league on their
own, but a lot of them can really severely hurt your chances at doing so.
The key is to minimize risk by passing on the guys with the most likelihood
of not fulfilling their ADP draft status. An average of only 3 or 4 WRs carry over from one season’s
top 10 to the next. In fact, the last time more than four WRs repeated
back-to-back top 10 seasons in fantasy football was 2000 and 2001. Last
year’s repeaters were Torry Holt, Steve Smith, Chad Johnson, and Marvin
Harrison. It was Smith’s first time repeating while CJ and Holt have been
top 10 since 2003 and Harrison has been there about since Calvin Johnson was
born. In fact, since 2003 there have been no other WRs who repeated
back-to-back top 10 years other than those players just mentioned. So what does all of that mean? Well, it means big neon
warning signs against the other 6 members of last year’s top 10: Terrell
Owens, Reggie Wayne, Lee Evans, Javon Walker, Donald Driver, and Roy
Williams. Some of those names are on my busts lists. A couple others would
be if they were being drafted in the early third like a defending top 10 WR
normally is. The bottom line is that there is a lot of turnover atop the WR
charts each year – and maybe that’s why guys like Marvin Harrison are truly
so valuable in the end. But enough about who will be in that top 10
at year’s end… what about this year’s busts? Torry Holt, STL
ADP: 2.07
 Yep, taking the gloves off right away again. Holt has finished 6th,
5th, 6th, and 2nd the last four years. Over
that span, he is the #1 WR in fantasy football cumulatively. Outside of
Marvin Harrison, he has been the model of consistency at WR and a guy I’ve
touted years in a row as one of the safest picks in the draft. So what is
different this year? Something just… feels different. First of all,
the Rams are no longer Holt’s offense but Steven Jackson’s. That means a few
less opportunities right there. He’s also starting to lose that consistency
factor. Last year he scored single digit fantasy points in 10 of the 16
games, which made him either a decent or poor start. In fact outside of one
huge game against Seattle, Holt had 1000 yards and 7 TDs the rest of the
year. Still quite solid, but not top 3 WR numbers. But what really bothers me is the knee injury. Holt’s knee
has bothered him on and off the last two seasons, and now he had surgery
that is bothering him as he prepares for this season. The knee has already
cost him a couple games and hampered his production. His YPC has been at a
steady drop from 20 YPC in 2000 to around 14.5 YPC in 2002-2004 to just 13
the last two seasons. Even so all of this is pretty speculative. I have to
admit that it’s betting against recent history to list Torry Holt as a
fantasy bust. But there are enough question marks here that he’s not a 2nd
rounder in my books. The WRs who go as high as they do are because they are
the safest bets, and I no longer believe Holt is a safe bet. He is not in my
top 10 WR this season and I would not touch him in the top 30 picks. Reggie Wayne, IND
ADP: 2.10
Let me guess – you’re on the Reggie Wayne bandwagon. So this is the
year he finally surpasses Marvin Harrison, right? Um… get real. Harrison
will show his age at some point but you’re crazy to keep betting on it year
after year. The truth about Reggie Wayne is that he’s a very good WR, but
he’s not a great one, and he would not be a great one without Marvin
Harrison playing opposite either. Over the past four seasons as a full time
starter, Wayne has averaged 1100 yards and 8 TDs. Those are excellent
numbers for a second WR on a team, but they are not necessarily excellent
top 5 fantasy WR material. For comparison sake, Harrison has averaged 1225
yards and 12 TDs over that span. The problem with Wayne is that he just
isn’t consistent enough yet. He has been a top 10 fantasy WR twice in the
last four years, but the other two seasons he missed the top 20 altogether.
In both of those top 10 years, Wayne had one huge game worth 30+ fantasy
points. Take that game away and Wayne was nothing more – or nothing less –
than a solid top 15 WR, a great WR2 for your squad. You are in trouble if
you’re expecting Wayne to carry your team as a 2nd round WR. He
is not built for that yet. Until we actually see Wayne take the torch from
Harrison as the #1 here – and have the massive TD numbers to prove it – he
just isn’t worth this high of a pick. Roy Williams, DET
ADP: 3.02
I absolutely love Roy Williams. I absolutely love Calvin Johnson too from a
talent perspective, and don’t even get me started on how much it kills me to
see both of them on my division rival as a Vikings fan. I’m just not sure
that either of them ought to be going as high as they’re showing in drafts.
Let’s deal with Roy here. Going into week 16 last year, Roy had just 1125
yards and 4 TDs. It was nice to end the last two games with 183 yards and 3
TDs against two teams resting for the playoffs, but it didn’t help your
fantasy squad since you were watching the Super Bowl from the sidelines
because your #1 WR didn’t produce all season. Roy is a supremely talented WR,
and he is going to explode for some big games in Mike Martz’s system this
year. But he is also going to have to deal with losing looks to Calvin
Johnson and Mike Furrey, and that’s a problem. It’s also a problem that the
Lions just don’t score that often, meaning there are probably only about
20-22 receiving TDs to go around. The receiving yards will pile up to 1200+
again but with only 6-8 TDs in all likelihood, those are not the stats of a
#1 WR on your fantasy team. I don’t see a huge bust year, but I think you
will be very disappointed if you take him in the top 30 picks. He looks like
a guy who should finish in the 10-15 range for WRs. Like Wayne, he is good
but not great. Like Wayne, he is being drafted too high and should not be
counted on as your #1 WR. Hines Ward, PIT
ADP: 4.12
What does Hines Ward have in common with Santana Moss, Chris Chambers,
Darrell Jackson, and Joey Galloway? The answer is that all of them have been
fantasy stars at some point but are playing on the wrong side of their
careers to expect it anymore. So what is the point? Well, for some reason
Ward is being taken a full round or two before all of those players. Looks
like people are living in the past on this one. Hines Ward has averaged 7
TDs and just under 1000 yards a season the last three years. Those numbers
are nothing to scoff at, sure, but they are also nothing to jump on in the
fourth round. Plus Ward’s physical style of play is slowly catching up to
him, and he continues to miss a couple games each season and play injured in
the rest. The bottom line is that there’s really not a lot of true “bust”
potential here, but it’s also hard to see much upside. He’s not really going
to do better than his usual 1000 yards, so he’ll have to get at least 8-10
TDs to merit your pick. It’s a gamble not worth making. Calvin Johnson, DET
ADP: 5.08
Look, I love the kid too. He’s a freak of nature. He’s a stud waiting to
happen. And if you’re in a keeper or dynasty league, you better lock him up
and you better do it quickly. I just don’t know if he’s a star from day one.
In Detroit this season he may not even be anything more than a third target
behind surefire stud Roy Williams and 100-catch slot receiver Mike Furrey. I
think he is too talented to be a real bust – the numbers will come this
season at some point. But will they make him the 21st best WR as
he is being drafted? Is he a viable WR2 for your squad, worth drafting a
round ahead of surer veterans like Moss, Chambers, and Galloway? I say no. I
think you’re looking at a guy who will end up getting around 800/7, and
those stats may come in streaks. He’s not someone you should count on right
off the bat. Let someone else buy the hype in a redraft. Darrell Jackson, SF
ADP: 6.03
Apparently DJax’s ADP is slipping because I’ve seen him consistently going
in the late 4th in most drafts, but I still wouldn’t touch him at
the top of the sixth. There are just huge flashing red warning lights all
over the place. First of all, he plays for San Francisco. Alex Smith is
improving, sure, but this offense will be centered around Frank Gore first
and Vernon Davis second. Will there be enough passing game to go around?
Last year the 49ers’ top WR had just 733 yards and 3 TDs. Sure Jackson is
better, but is he that much better? And there is also the problem
historically for WRs on a new team – very few turn out well their first
year. In a new system and with a new QB, it could take DJax awhile to fit
in. Last and certainly not least, there are injury questions everywhere.
They were apparently bad enough that Seattle unloaded their #1 WR – to a
division rival no less – for a day two draft pick. Jackson has played just
19 games the last two seasons. His career average is about 700 yards and 7
TDs a season. Trust me, you can do better. Vincent Jackson, SD
ADP: 7.06
Do I dare to bash the most popular WR sleeper out there? Yes, I dare to.
Sorry folks, Vincent just isn’t the next great thing. You say VJax had 6 TDs
last season. I say sure, but he only had 27 catches for 453 yards and didn’t
even finish in the top 50 fantasy WRs. You say Jackson is a physical
specimen and a special redzone talent. I say he is at best a distant third
redzone option behind superstars LaDainian Tomlinson and Antonio Gates. You
say he is ready to finally be the team’s #1 WR especially with Eric Parker
done for the year. I say that the team already has two #1 WRs named LT2 and
Gates and that the leftover scraps will be split up between Malcolm Floyd,
Craig Davis, and Jackson. In the end, what we have here is a player who
doesn’t have the opportunity to be a major fantasy asset. What we have here
is an overhyped sleeper who has risen from an appropriate 9th
round selection to a poor 7th and potentially awful 5th
or 6th. What we have here is Matt Jones 2007. Consider yourself
warned. Alright that’s it for today. One final installment of
busts will address the ever-likeable positions of tight end, place kicker,
and defensive teams. Check back soon for the last piece! | |
