Fantasy Football Busts - Tight Ends, Kickers, and Defenses By
Brandon Anderson
8/19/07
A Sports Outlaw Exclusive Hope you’ve enjoyed this week of ADP
busts as much as I have. Today we wrap up the final segment with a look at a
few busts each at TE, K, and D. There’s honestly not a lot to see here that
can’t be summed up in two sentences. One, after Gates goes you should never
be the one to start the run of TEs in the next tier of about 5-7 guys. And
two, you should never be one of the first people in your draft to use
a draft pick on a kicker or a defense, no matter how good they were last
year. Follow those two thoughts as a rule of thumb, and take a look below to
see how it plays out… Todd Heap, BAL
ADP: 5.12
Todd Heap is a very good TE, both in real life and in fantasy football, and
he should get you 750 yards and 6 TDs this season. So what makes him a bust?
It’s all about value in a fantasy draft, and taking Heap in the fifth round
is not using your picks wisely. I will say that it is very vital for you to
get a good TE if you want to truly compete in your fantasy league. If you
miss on Gates, you’re going to want to get one of the next tier that
includes in no particular order Heap, Tony Gonzalez, Jeremy Shockey, Chris
Cooley, Vernon Davis, Kellen Winslow, Jason Witten, and Alge Crumpler. There
are a bunch of names there and no, they won’t all be equal, but they should
all get you around 6-700 yards and 5-7 TDs, and it’s tough to predict the
final order of the group. So why be the first guy to take a TE? Wait a round
or two and you’ll still get one of equal or potentially greater value. Don’t
wait too long and miss completely, but use your 5th round pick
for a more valuable QB, RB, or WR. Kellen Winslow, CLE
ADP: 6.08
I love Kellen Winslow’s talent, but I don’t love his knees or
his ankles or any of the other parts of his body that seem to stay
consistently banged up. Winslow somehow managed to play every snap last
season despite playing with a myriad of injuries, so I’m not going to sit
here and bash his will to stay on the field. But this offseason Winslow had
microfracture surgery to repair his knee from damage still afflicting him
from the motorcycle accident a few years back. And while I wish him all the
best on his recovery, I will not be watching him on my roster this year.
Microfracture surgery is notoriously difficult to recover from and pro
athletes in the NBA like Jason Kidd and Amare Stoudemire did return to top
form eventually, but it took several years. And even if Winslow does play
healthy, he has not proven to be a consistent TD threat. With as many good
playable TEs as there are this season (see above), Winslow just isn’t worth
the risk. Dallas Clark, IND
ADP: 12.05
Dallas Clark is something of an enigma in fantasy football. Every year a
handful of owners out there draft Clark in the latter rounds thinking
they’ve got a steal of a TE and end up instead with a guy who is injured for
half the year and spotty the other half. The reality is that Clark has never
had more than 40 catches or 500 yards or 5 TDs in a season – and a startable
fantasy TE needs to attain all of those numbers or better really. This
season Indianapolis has added another receiving threat in Anthony Gonzalez
and that may hurt Clark’s already mediocre numbers. There will probably be
two or three big games out of Clark this season but the rest of the time
you’ll be looking at just a couple of points if you’re lucky. This guy
should not be a starting fantasy TE. Adam Vinatieri, IND
ADP: 11.01
I expect the Colts to struggle a little this season. Long time LT Tarik
Glenn is gone, and you can’t overstate how much a stud left tackle means to
an offense. Plus they are the champs now, and everyone will be gunning for
them from day one. What does that all mean? Probably less TDs and more FG
attempts for Vinatieri. So why am I adding him to the bust list? Because he
is the #1 kicker taken in virtually every draft, and someone always
drafts him really high – too high. Do you know when the last time was that
Indy had a kicker in the top 5? It was 2001. If you are drafting a kicker
this early, this far ahead of his competition (most kickers get taken in the
14th-16th rounds at the end of the draft), you better
be dang sure he is going to be a stud. Vinatieri will probably be the best
kicker in the NFL this year, but who knows what that will mean in the
fantasy world? Nate Kaeding, SD
ADP: 12.11
Kaeding is on the bust list for two reasons. First, he is being drafted as
the #2 kicker behind Vinatieri, and still several rounds ahead of most
kickers. And this is bad strategy, as discussed above. But at least with
Kaeding there is precedence, right? After all, he was the #2 kicker in
fantasy football at the end of 2006, just a handful of points behind Robbie
Gould. But as it turns out, that’s actually a bad omen for Kaeding. A very
bad one. In the last six years, only once has a kicker (Jeff Wilkins)
repeated back to back top 5 fantasy years. That is 1 out of 25, an awful 4%
retention rate. Pro Football Prospectus has recently shown that there is
actually no statistically relevant correlation between number of field goal
attempts or field goal percentage from one season to the next. What does
that mean? That kickers are completely unpredictable. And that you are
foolish to draft one early thinking you’ve got a leg up on your competition. Chicago Bears defense
ADP: 6.10
Sure, maybe defenses are very valuable in your league. Maybe you remember
wishing you had taken the Bears defense while instead languishing as you
watched Devin Hester return TD after TD, and this season you’ve vowed to get
them. But, like kickers, dominant fantasy defenses very rarely carry over
from one year to the next. Case in point – do you remember who was the top
fantasy defense in 2005? It was the Carolina Panthers, the same team that
finished 26th last year. The year before, Buffalo dropped from #1
to #18. I don’t think Chicago will fall off as much because they play in
such a weak division and are so dominant defensively, but I also don’t think
they’ll be the sure thing they were last year, and I know they won’t be
worth a 6th round pick. I remember about 5-7 years ago when Tampa
was the dominant defense and they would get drafted early, too early every
year. I saw them go as early as the 4th round once. And the team
who drafted them always flopped badly. You are throwing away a starting RB
or WR pick for a defense that has a poor statistical chance of being worth
the pick. Boo.  Baltimore Ravens defense
ADP: 7.06
There’s not much more to say here for Baltimore that wasn’t said in the
Chicago paragraph just above. Baltimore is sure to get taken just a handful
of picks after Chicago; after all they were both the superstar Ds last year,
so why wouldn’t they be again? Well… they just won’t. The odds are against
you, at least. And I like the Ravens far worse than the Bears. They lost
their defensive playmaker Adalius Thomas to the rival Patriots. They also
face a much more difficult schedule this year, full of teams like
Indianapolis and San Diego and New England, not to mention a vastly improved
division with top offenses Cincinnati and Pittsburgh twice each. Just don’t
use such an early pick on a questionable pick. So there you have it, my 2007 busts
based on draft position. There were a lot of familiar names on today’s list
so remember to follow the rule of thumb talked about above: don’t start the
TE run, and don’t be the first one or two guys to take a kicker or defense.
Follow those tips and some of the others mentioned in the QB, RB, and WR
articles and you should be well on your way! | |
