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Fantasy Football Draft Strategy - Drafting From The TopBy
Brandon Anderson [Drafting From The Top] [Drafting From The Middle] [Drafting From The Bottom] We’re rolling toward the end of August, and that can only mean one thing: the final round of fantasy drafts are about to get underway, and the first kickoff of the NFL season will follow shortly thereafter! I know a lot of folks out there hold out until Labor Day weekend or even opening weekend for their drafts. It’s a great way to build the excitement right before the season, and you avoid all those nasty preseason injury problems that so often plague leagues. You’ve been watching preseason, you’ve been reading Sports Outlaw, you’ve got your players mostly ranked, but now it’s time to put that plan into action. All the prep work in the world can’t help you if you don’t know what direction to head in come draft day. This article will take a look at a good draft strategy from the top – holding one of the picks #1-#4 in your 12 man league. Before I go any further, some background information is absolutely vital here. I am assuming a 12 team league with starting lineup requirements of 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, and 1 D/ST. As long as your league is pretty close to that, and most are, you should be able to follow this plan well. I am also using standard scoring with no points per reception (PPR) and no negatives, as follows:
Keep it as simple as that, and forget about defensive and kicker scoring because you’re crazy to even consider one in the first half of your draft, and that’s as far as I plan on setting you up today. Alright, it’s draft day. You reach into the hat, pull out a number, and you’ve got pick 1, 2, 3, or 4. What should you do? Round 1 If you’ve got pick 1 or 2, there are no real major decisions to be made. Congratulations – you’re looking at LaDainian Tomlinson or Steven Jackson as a goldmine cornerstone to your fantasy squad this year. I personally prefer SJax to LT2 and would urge you to consider going against the grain to select him at #1 overall, but you can hardly go wrong with either. It gets really tricky at #3 or #4 though. There are a lot of explosive runners and a lot of huge upsides, but there are landmines all over the place. You are probably looking to choose a name between the following guys and their question marks: Frank Gore, SF – Plays on a mediocre team, out all preseason (and further?) with a broken hand, lost OC Norv Turner in the offseason Larry Johnson, KC – Just signed and reported to camp and may not be ready for the first week of the season, plays on a rapidly declining team, reached the 400+ carry mark last year which has been an awful omen in NFL history Shaun Alexander, SEA – Still recovering from last year’s injuries and reported not to be 100%, huge drop in yards per carry (YPC) last season, turns 30 this week Joseph Addai, IND – Never carried a full load before, lost star OT Tarik Glenn to retirement, plays on a team that may be passing a lot with a porous defense There are certainly a lot of question marks there, but the truth is that you’re probably not going to consider anyone outside of this group that high. (Disclaimer: If you’re in a PPR league, you may consider Bush, and I would strongly encourage you to take him as high as #2 or #3, but we are not talking PPR here or the rest of the way.) Your goal has to be to minimize the risk here. All of these guys have plenty of potential, so you don’t need to worry about picking great upside. But which risks are legit, and which are just gnawing worries? Well you can’t change the fact that Frank Gore is dealing with a serious injury to his carrying hand and has had fumbling problems in the past. You also can’t change Alexander’s age or make him recover any faster. And you certainly can’t get LJ ready for game one any sooner or change the fact that his body is probably trashed from his NFL record number of carries last season. But Addai’s question marks can be answered, at least in part. No he’s never really carried the full load before, but everyone has to start sometime. If you passed on Larry Johnson for the same reason two years ago, you sure felt stupid watching him run up 2000 yards and 21 TDs. And yes, he plays on a Colts team that may be passing a lot, but let’s be realistic here. This is the defending NFL champ, so the defense isn’t that bad, and having Manning and those awesome receivers may just end up spreading the field for Addai to run through huge holes like Edgerrin James always used to. Take Addai at #3 or #4. He is the safest and best pick. Rounds 2 and 3 From here on out, we will always consider this pair of close picks (2 and 3, 4 and 5, etc) together since they are so near to one another. You’ve got a lot of options with this pick. Most likely Peyton Manning will be gone with the other QBs still available, and you’re probably looking at a pretty thin RB cupboard with 16-18 already off the board. Will you reach and grab one of the last good RBs before they disappear completely? Will you try for value at QB or TE? Will you grab a star WR, maybe even two, and worry about the other positions later? Let’s take a look at the likely options: QB RBs WRs TE First I am going to rule out Palmer and Gates. It is way to high for Palmer, who could struggle this year as the Bengals continue to struggle with their offensive line and depth at RB and WR – you can get a comparable QB later, and it is just too early here. As for Gates, I am a huge fan of him and he’s not a bad high third round target at all, but it throws off the rest of this plan. If you want him, take him as high as the early 3rd, but you’re on your own as you carefully balance the rest of your picks. Now let’s make one decision easy for you – you need to take at least one WR here. The second pick ought to be either a RB or a WR, and it depends on what you like here. Look at that list of RBs – are there any that truly stick out to you as a potential top 10 back, or are you just reaching for a RB so you can have one? If you answered yes to the first question, then you should go ahead and take the RB. If that group is who I’m looking at, though, I’m not going to be too excited. I can see Benson and Portis as possibilities, but I would not be enamored with either. If that is the case for you as well, then taking 2 WRs here is your best strategy. Go with Harrison or TO in the 2nd round, and then shoot for Fitzgerald on the way back. I won’t explain why I don’t like Wayne and Williams here, but you can read about it in the Busts article for more info if you’d like. Take the pair of WRs, hopefully ending up with two of Harrison, Owens, and Fitzgerald. You’ve now got two of the top 5 WRs on my board plus a top 5 RB – an awesome start. And a much better than a top 5 RB, a top 5 WR, then a #15 RB and a #15 WR at your next spot. Rounds 4 and 5 Alright so at this point we are assuming you started with a stud RB and a stud WR and then also have either a second RB or WR. At this point of the draft, there are usually a couple panicked QB picks as a bit of a run begins. If Tom Brady or Drew Brees somehow slip this far, then they are fantastic options here, but I’m guessing they will be gone. You might also see Bulger and McNabb, maybe even Kitna, sneaking into this area. I urge you not to be the one taking them. After you’ve missed on the top set of QBs – and you have – the next batch is just too broad to blow a high pick there. There are also no TEs worth taking this high, since I’m assuming Gates is long gone by now. So we are back to RBs and WRs then. If you started with 2 RBs and a WR, then you should go with a pair of WRs here. It is not advised to spend one of these picks on a backup RB here. If you are that worried about your #2 RB, then you shouldn’t have picked him when you could’ve gotten a stud WR instead. Pick the players who will start for you, and that is a pair of WRs here who will fill out your starting RB and WR requirements. If any of the following WRs are still there, thank your QB- and RB-heavy leaguemates and scoop them up immediately: Marques Colston, Randy Moss, Andre Johnson, Donald Driver, and Lee Evans. Let’s assume you probably don’t get so lucky since you already used up your luck getting that high pick. If so, you’re looking at two of these guys here: Plaxico Burress, NYG Do you see a theme here? A whole bunch of supposed #1 WRs in average teams, and guys you will feel decent but not great about. Personally, I’m very high on Santana Moss (in my top 5) and don’t mind reaching for him here, and I also like Reggie Brown a good deal. Find two of those WRs you like. And if you are looking at that group and just thinking to yourself “Blech” the you probably should have taken the stud WR in the third when you had a chance. That’s why you’re thinking this through beforehand. If you started with 1 RB and 2 WRs, then the scenario is slightly different here. It is a great place for you to grab a pair of RBs, and since you’ve waited this long on your second RB, it is a good idea to get two to balance here and play off of one another. So how do we find a good balancing act? They key may be to get a pair of guys opposite one another. Find one steady veteran who lacks upside but provides dependable points each game, and pair him with a flashy young guy with upside to make you sleep well at night. You’re probably choosing between: Adrian Peterson, MIN Well, there are really only two veteran dependable sort of guys on there, Green and Lewis. Make one of them your 5th round pick to give you someone who can ground your team. With the 4th, go ahead and go all or nothing on that flashy upside guy. I am cooling down a bit on Barber as I see Dallas turning to Julius Jones more and more. If you have a strong feeling on one of the Dallas RBs, you could take him here or maybe even pair both. Otherwise taking Peterson’s huge upside or Norwood’s sneaky high YPC are good options. Try to stay away from DeAngelo, who is talented but can’t even seem to win the job over DeShaun Foster. Rounds 6 and 7 At this point, some of your possible roster options may look like this: #1 pick – LaDainian Tomlinson, Cedric Benson, Reggie
Wayne, Hines Ward, Deion Branch You should feel pretty good about any of those combos. Personally I absolutely love option #2 and option #4, and I definitely would have taken one of those routes. At this point, you are feeling very good about your top 2 RBs and your top 2 WRs. Depending on what you’ve done so far, you are either missing a third RB or a third WR. One of those players should be your pick here. I have no idea what will be available, but here are some names I would strongly encourage you to pick between: RBs WRs So what to do with your other pick? Your strong inclination is going to be QB I’m sure. But look at who you are almost certainly picking between at this point: Matt Hasselbeck, SEA You’re probably thinking to yourself, “Hey, that’s not so bad, I like most of those guys” – and that’s exactly it. Manning, Brady, Palmer, Brees, Bulger, McNabb, and Kitna are all off the board already in some order and that means that only 5 owners still need a starting QB. If you are patient, you will almost certainly get one of those names above in the 8th round, and you might even be able to get a pair of them. And even if you don’t, you still can get one of these very capable players: Ben Roethlisberger, PIT As long as you walk away with two of these QBs, you will be in just as good of shape as if you had burned your 4th on Bulger, your 5th on Kitna, or your 7th here on Hasselbeck. You can have two good top 12-15 QBs and play their matchups off of each other, and I promise you, you’ll do just fine. Personally I am super high on Leinart and Roethlisberger and would be very happy to get either of them as a starter. What you should be doing instead is taking a TE with your pick here. It’s all about supply and demand. Right now there is a vast supply of similar QBs and the demand is low. On the contrary, you’ve probably already seen some guys like Tony Gonzalez and Jeremy Shockey go off the board, maybe even Vernon Davis already, so the star TE pool is shrinking while demand is still high. If you don’t get one now, you’re going to miss out completely and be losing points a TE every week. So take one now, whether that be Todd Heap, Vernon Davis, Chris Cooley, Alge Crumpler, or Kellen Winslow. My favorite of that bunch is Cooley. But get whoever you like. Rounds 8 and 9 If you’ve followed along so far, you probably still don’t have a QB. Don’t panic; you’re still in good shape. You can still get a good pair of QBs here who will not lose you much ground, and you are probably better than most of your competition at TE and either RB or WR or maybe even both, so it will be okay. Take a look at that list of QBs just above. I encourage you to pair up their schedules and find a nice pair together, and like you might have done with RBs in rounds 4 and 5, it might be a good time to take one steady veteran and one upside guy. You may think Favre is done, but he’s finish in the top 10 in this scoring system for 15 straight years. And Big Ben Roethlisberger is my top QB sleeper (see my Sleepers article), a guy who had absolutely everything go wrong last year and still finished safely in the top 10. Find a pair of QBs that you like and go for them. And now you’re on your own for the rest of your draft. You should have all your main starters, and you can fill out your roster as you like. Here are a few examples of what your team might look like: #1 pick #2 pick #3 pick #4 pick Personally, I like team #2 by far the best. In fact that would be pretty close to a dream draft for me with a high pick. I’d have two of my top 10 QBs, a top 3 TE, three top 15 WRs, my #1 RB by far, and two good competent RBs. I would go into the season feeling absolutely great about my team. Follow this strategy and you will be too! | |
