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Fantasy Football Draft Strategy - Drafting From The MiddleBy
Brandon Anderson [Drafting From The Top] [Drafting From The Middle] [Drafting From The Bottom] We’re rolling toward the end of August, and that can only mean one thing: the final round of fantasy drafts are about to get underway, and the first kickoff of the NFL season will follow shortly thereafter! I know a lot of folks out there hold out until Labor Day weekend or even opening weekend for their drafts. It’s a great way to build the excitement right before the season, and you avoid all those nasty preseason injury problems that so often plague leagues. You’ve been watching preseason, you’ve been reading Sports Outlaw, you’ve got your players mostly ranked, but now it’s time to put that plan into action. All the prep work in the world can’t help you if you don’t know what direction to head in come draft day. This article will take a look at a good draft strategy from the top – holding one of the picks #5-#8 in your 12 man league. Before I go any further, some background information is absolutely vital here. I am assuming a 12 team league with starting lineup requirements of 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, and 1 D/ST. As long as your league is pretty close to that, and most are, you should be able to follow this plan well. I am also using standard scoring with no points per reception (PPR) and no negatives, as follows:
Keep it as simple as that, and forget about defensive and kicker scoring because you’re crazy to even consider one in the first half of your draft, and that’s as far as I plan on setting you up today. Alright, it’s draft day. You reach into the hat, pull out a number, and you’ve got pick 5, 6, 7, or 8. What should you do? Round 1 It’s obviously going to be a RB here, but which one will it be? LaDainian Tomlinson and Steven Jackson will be long gone obviously. And it seems that after that, there is a tier of about four guys who are being drafted in slots 3-6. They do not, however, come without question marks: Frank Gore, SF – Plays on a mediocre team, out all preseason (and further?) with a broken hand, lost OC Norv Turner in the offseason Larry Johnson, KC – Just signed and reported to camp and may not be ready for the first week of the season, plays on a rapidly declining team, reached the 400+ carry mark last year which has been an awful omen in NFL history Shaun Alexander, SEA – Still recovering from last year’s injuries and reported not to be 100%, huge drop in yards per carry (YPC) last season, turns 30 this week Joseph Addai, IND – Never carried a full load before, lost star OT Tarik Glenn to retirement, plays on a team that may be passing a lot with a porous defense For more on this, see the article on Drafting from the Top, and also take a look at my Busts work. You’re going to find three of those four names on the bust list, and the only one that isn’t there is Joseph Addai. If you are slotted at #5 or #6, maybe even #7 or #8, and you are fortunate enough to see Addai’s name still there, consider yourself fortunate and scoop him up. I will strongly advise you to pass on the other names, none of whom are in my top 10 or, really, even close. So what if Addai is gone and you’re set on passing on those players above? You’re probably looking at one of the following RBs: Reggie Bush, NO The key here is to pick a good player who will be the most sure thing, the one least likely to bust or miss a bunch of games due to injury. If we go in with that mindset, then the list whittles itself very quickly. Parker is already banged up this preseason and may be a smart choice to avoid. Westbrook misses 2-4 games just about every year and, while he’ll be very good in the others, that’s not the sound of someone you want to build your team around. That leaves four players, all of whom are good considerations for your pick. If you are looking for the flashy super upside or just the best all around RB pick here (in my opinion), then Reggie Bush is the pick for you – even more so if you’re in a points per reception (PPR) league. If you are looking for the safest selection who can’t kill your team, then Rudi Johnson is your choice, a guy who slides into the bottom part of the top 10 every year. If you’re looking to mix in some safety with some upside, then both Maroney and Henry are solid picks – both guys who will get a lot of carries on great teams and a lot of TD opportunities. I would rank your options here at #5-#8 as follows: Addai, Bush, Maroney, Henry, R Johnson. And no, I would not consider any of the others, including Larry Johnson if he fell this far. Round 2 There’s an outside shot that Peyton Manning may still be here at this pick. Let him keep sliding. He is very good but he has only finished #1 in this scoring once (last year) and he just isn’t that much better than a few of the others anymore. You are better off with a very valuable RB or stud WR here. I am generally a proponent of taking that stud WR in the second round, especially if you can snag Steve Smith here, my far and away #1 guy this year. But with the pick you are looking at, I am going to strongly urge you to consider going RB because of the caliber of guys you are probably looking at here: Ronnie Brown, MIA I’m not going to try to sell you on Brown, who I go back and forth on, but the other two guys are each in my top 6 RBs overall. In fact, I’m actually higher on MJD and Edge than I am on several of the RBs I told you to consider in the first round. To save on some space here, take a look at the Sleepers article here at Sports Outlaw and let it make my case for me. I am super high on both of these guys and I believe you have lucked into a goldmine here drafting from the middle because of how it availed you to these two high potential players. One or both will be there. Consider yourself lucky and snatch up that second star RB to load yourself up at the position. Round 3 There’s probably a 50/50 shot that Antonio Gates is still on the board at this point, and while I am totally sold on his value at this point, I am not going to recommend him here simply because it so changes the rest of your draft strategy and really pigeonholes us. If you are interested in him, I encourage you to scoop him up, but you’re probably on your own from here on out. If it’s not Gates, then the smart pick here is absolutely a WR. Your league starts 3 WRs, and you can’t leave the top three picks without one, or you will be extremely weak there. Lucky for you, you’ve still got a really good selection to choose from: Roy Williams, DET You can’t go too wrong with any of these selections. My favorite is Andre Johnson, a guy who was targeted a ton last year under new HC Gary Kubiak and finally has a competent QB to get him the ball. I expect him to explode this season into the top 5 WRs. Housh is also in my top 10, and the rest of those guys are still in my top 15. Find one you like, and make him your first WR. Round 4 You definitely don’t need any more RBs, and with Gates surely off the board, there are no TEs worth considering either. Your instinct may be to consider a QB here, but it all depends on who is available. If Tom Brady or Drew Brees has slipped this far after a big WR run, then they are definitely good options to consider. Those are my #1 and #2 QBs, respectively, this season and they will do you just as well as Manning would have up in the 2nd round. If those two QBs are gone, do not be a victim of a QB run and go too early for Marc Bulger or Donovan McNabb, or you will probably regret it. If Brady and Brees are gone, or if you prefer to pick up another WR here, you are still in luck. The group of WRs we mentioned in the 3rd round are probably gone, but there’s a very good chance that you can still get one of these guys as a fantastic WR2: Marques Colston, NO These guys are all top 15-20 WRs with top 10 WR potential. There’s a really great chance that at least one of them ends up in the top 10, and my pick would be Colston and then Moss (both are in mine). Driver and Evans were there last year. If you go WR here, you’ve landed in the right spot to get a great one still, just before a big dropoff. Round 5 At this point you should have a pair of star RBs, a great WR, and either a second great WR or a stud QB. First things first – if you don’t have a second WR yet, you absolutely have to grab one here. You’re probably looking at the following names: Plaxico Burress, NYG Do you see a theme here? A whole bunch of supposed #1 WRs in average teams, and guys you will feel decent but not great about. And it’s pretty likely that a handful of those guys won’t be there for you to pick from. Personally, I’m very high on Santana Moss (in my top 5) and don’t mind reaching for him here, and I also like Reggie Brown a good deal. Find one of those WRs you like. If you started with 2 RBs and then 2 WRs, you might have some more options here. I don’t recommend being the first one to take a TE after Gates because there just isn’t that much separation between the guy you could get here and the one you will take in the 7th. Since you’re targeting a TE in the 7th, that means you have your 5th, 6th, and 8th round picks to get a starting QB, a third starting WR, and a backup RB. You’ll need to take a look at your options and plan accordingly. Here are some names that may be there: QBs RBs WRs You ought to be looking for the best value on the board here, whoever that might be. If you decide to take a backup RB already, make sure you are looking for a big risk big reward guy like Peterson if he is there. If McNabb has made it this far, he’s a very solid pick as he has looked great this preseason and was the #1 QB in PPG last season before the injury, but you’ll need to make sure you get yourself a good backup in the 8th round as well. Otherwise, the safe bet may be to stick with a WR pick here, again my favorites being Moss and Brown. Round 6 Okay, what sort of team are you looking at so far? Here are some possibilities: #5 pick – Joseph Addai, Ronnie Brown, Roy Williams, Donald
Driver, Donovan McNabb Each of those teams has something great about it. Team #5 has excellent balance with very good players across the board. Team #6 is similar with great balance and a stud QB to boot. Team #7 is the RB lovers team with three huge upside RBs for you to play off of one another. And team #8 starts you off with a pair of stud RB and three WRs in my top 10. Great starts all around. So what are you looking at in round 6? It depends on what you have so far, but it’s probably a safe bet that you’re going to want to get a backup RB if you don’t have one yet (every team other than #7 above). Some good sleepers to consider here should include: Brandon Jackson, GB All three of these guys have looked like starters in the preseason, and they ought to give you fine production at your RB3 spot especially since you have two very good starters already. If you do have that third RB already then you can probably pick either a QB or a TE here. I’m not sure exactly what you may want at QB unless Kitna slips and you’re high on him, so you’re probably better off waiting for someone just as good in a few rounds. Take the WR instead, aiming for one of these good top 20 WRs that should be available: Joey Galloway, TB One other option worth mentioning is that you could take a TE here in this round to beat the rush a bit if there’s someone you are super high on, and that probably means Vernon Davis or Kellen Winslow. I advise you to wait, because you can get someone just as good but not as flashy next round. Round 7 We’ve talked about this a few times now, but this is your turn to take a stud TE. It’s still early enough that you’re going to get one that’s really just as good as any other TE not named Gates. Gonzalez, Shockey, and Heap will surely be gone by now but you will likely see some of these names still there: Vernon Davis, SF All of these guys can be good TE options. I personally am very high on both of those last two, especially Cooley, and I’m cautious on the risks of the first two. But it’s up to you here. Find a TE you like and go for it. Round 8 We talked before about thinking of your 5th, 6th, and 8th all together since you needed to find a starting QB, a third RB, and a third starting WR. You should have that RB already, and you’ve either got a WR3 or a QB. It’s time to take the other one here to round out your starting lineup. You are looking at the following: QBs WRs Notice a theme among every singe one of those players? They’re all pretty young, all relatively unproven. And if you’ve prepared for your draft at all, there’s a pretty good chance you’ve seen a bunch of these guys on sleeper lists and you’re probably pretty high on at least a few of them. Well, now is your chance. I am personally very high on both Leinart and Roethlisberger, and being very confident that I could get one here in round 8 would probably have left me inclined to wait until now to address the position. But I also like some of those WRs quite a bit too. You’re in good shape either way. Alright at this point you should have all of your main starters, and you’ll probably want to get that backup QB pretty soon. Here are a few examples of teams you may have at this point: #5 pick #6 pick #7 pick #8 pick I see a lot of great teams right there. You’ve got a great pair of RBs and WRs on each team, a really good TE, and either a very good third WR or a star QB. The middle of the draft is not an easy place to navigate by any means, but if you will follow a strategy similar to the ones mentioned here, you can build yourself an excellent contender and be in great position for a fantasy title! | |
