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Fantasy Football Draft Strategy - Drafting From The BottomBy
Brandon Anderson [Drafting From The Top] [Drafting From The Middle] [Drafting From The Bottom] We’re rolling toward the end of August, and that can only mean one thing: the final round of fantasy drafts are about to get underway, and the first kickoff of the NFL season will follow shortly thereafter! I know a lot of folks out there hold out until Labor Day weekend or even opening weekend for their drafts. It’s a great way to build the excitement right before the season, and you avoid all those nasty preseason injury problems that so often plague leagues. You’ve been watching preseason, you’ve been reading Sports Outlaw, you’ve got your players mostly ranked, but now it’s time to put that plan into action. All the prep work in the world can’t help you if you don’t know what direction to head in come draft day. This article will take a look at a good draft strategy from the top – holding one of the picks #9-#12 in your 12 man league. Before I go any further, some background information is absolutely vital here. I am assuming a 12 team league with starting lineup requirements of 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, and 1 D/ST. As long as your league is pretty close to that, and most are, you should be able to follow this plan well. I am also using standard scoring with no points per reception (PPR) and no negatives, as follows:
Keep it as simple as that, and forget about defensive and kicker scoring because you’re crazy to even consider one in the first half of your draft, and that’s as far as I plan on setting you up today. Alright, it’s draft day. You reach into the hat, pull out a number, and you’ve got pick 9, 10, 11, or 12. Don’t despair – you may not get LaDaininan Tomlinson or Steven Jackson, but you can still build yourself an excellent team. So what should you do? Rounds 1 and 2 Since all of your picks are going to come in pairs that are pretty close to one another, we will be considering all of your selections in pairs. Tomlinson and Jackson are obviously gone. So too are surely the next group of guys that usually includes Larry Johnson, Frank Gore, Shaun Alexander, and Joseph Addai in some order. Good riddance to that group of four, only one of whom (Addai) is actually in my top ten picks. Brian Westbrook will probably be one of the picks at #7 or #8 as well, so we’ll assume he’s gone. You’re obviously going to want at least one RB here. And we’re going to go ahead and select a pair of them. I am extremely high on Steve Smith as my #1 WR, but I just don’t like what you’ll be looking at if you have to try to find a RB2 after passing on this pick. You’re going to have to reach for someone like Cadillac Williams or Marshawn Lynch in the 3rd, and then you’ll have to reach for a backup like Julius Jones in the 5th as well, and I just don’t like where it leaves your team. For the same reason – and because he just isn’t that much better than later options – we’re not even going to think about Peyton Manning. He has only finished #1 in this scoring once before (last season) and just isn’t a slam dunk choice this early. If anything, he is a copout choice for the fantasy player who isn’t willing to take a chance at RB and would rather settle on an average team with Manning. We will stick with two RBs here because there are some great ones available, and you can come away with top 10 guys. Here are the names you will be picking between: Reggie Bush, NO There are a couple things to do here. First of all, you need to eliminate the guys who are most likely to bust or miss a bunch of games due to injury. With that mindset, a couple of the names are eliminated very quickly. Parker is already banged up this preseason and is a smart choice to avoid. McGahee is a RB who just isn’t that good, a guy who has never had over 4.0 yards per carry (YPC) and now joins a team in Baltimore who ranked 30th in YPC last season. It is a bad situation, and add in his struggles to get receiving yards and his mediocre TD numbers, and we will cross him off the list as well. That leaves 6 names on our list, 2 of which will be anchoring the team. Every single one of those 6 is in my top 10 (along with SJax, Tomlinson, Addai, and Westbrook) so it’s going to be tough to go wrong here. Here is my order of ranking them and some quick thoughts on each: Edgerrin James, ARI – Improved OL means better YPC, top 5 in carries last year and gets good receiving numbers, good TD threat on an improving team, new coaching staff promises an heavy run game, extremely easy schedule Reggie Bush, NO – As high of upside as any player in the draft, gets a ton of receiving yards and came on as a huge TD threat at the end of last season, huge boom possibility here Maurice Jones-Drew, JAX – Will get a lot of touches in the running, receiving, and kick returning areas, a huge TD threat with 1 per game last year, plays on a running team with a low center of gravity and a tough guy to tackle Laurence Maroney, NE – Played for the first time this weekend and carried on 15 of the first 19 plays, plays on a great team who will be ahead much of the season, should get a lot of TD opportunities Travis Henry, DEN – A big banged up but should be ready, plays on a great run focused team who will be ahead much of the season, should get a lot of TD opportunities, plays for a top fantasy RB machine in Denver Rudi Johnson, CIN – As safe a pick as anyone not named LT2, offensive line should be improved from last year, good consistency at rushing yards and TDs, top ten three years in a row I think you can get two of those first three and come away with 2 of my top 6 RBs, and you will be in great shape. And it might not be a terrible idea to balance a high upside guy like Bush or MJD with a safer steadier selection like Rudi or Edge. But no matter what, you will have a good pair of RBs if you can get two of those names. Rounds 3 and 4 First things first. If Antonio Gates is still here, you ought to absolutely take him as soon as you can. He’s a great value and a huge asset to your team, and he’s definitely worth the pick, but we’re going to assume that he’s gone so that we don’t pigeonhole our draft effort here. You definitely need to get at least one WR here. You can’t leave the first four rounds without any WRs at all when you start three of them. In fact, it would be nice to leave with two since there are so many good ones available. An exception can be made if you would like to take a star QB. There’s a great chance that either or both of Tom Brady and Drew Brees will be available. Both of these guys play on explosive passing offenses with great weapons and, in my opinion, both are just as great at QB as Peyton Manning, and they come two full rounds later. If you want that stud QB and don’t want to have to find one later on, then you should take one of these two. If you don’t get one now, it’s not worth even sniffing QBs again until the 8th, so choose wisely. What WRs should you be looking at? You’ve got a really nice list of top 15 guys to be picking between: Anquan Boldin, ARI My favorite two in that list are definitely Johnson and Colston. AJ is a guy who was targeted a ton last year under new HC Gary Kubiak and finally has a competent QB to get him the ball. I expect him to explode this season into the top 5 WRs. Colston was the #1 fantasy WR for the first half of last season in new HC Sean Payton’s offense before a high ankle sprain hurt his second half numbers. Moss and Housh are also in my top 10, and the rest of those guys are still in my top 15. Find one you like, and make him your first WR. And if you’re willing to wait on QB, find a second WR you like as well. If I can leave with Colston and Johnson here, I’m walking away with two of my top 5 WRs! Rounds 5 and 6 At this point in your draft you should have two great RBs, a star WR, and either another great WR or a stud QB. You’ll remember that we said a QB wouldn’t be worth considering again until the 8th, so if you passed on Brady and Brees for a star WR, then you will pass again here. You should also avoid the temptation to grab a TE. You may like the idea of snagging Tony Gonzalez or Vernon Davis before everyone else gets one, but you have a very great chance of getting a less flashy pick like Chris Cooley or Alge Crumpler who will perform just as well or maybe better, but they’re available two rounds later for you. Most fantasy owners want to have a usable 3rd RB. If you’re picking in the 9-12 spot, you’re going to need to use one of these two picks to get one here, and it’s probably a good idea. Some ideas for you to consider are: Julius Jones, DAL My favorites in that group are Jackson and Jordan, and you can safely get either of them in the 6th. Both of them have looked good in the preseason and look to be the starters on teams who could be sneaky good this season. They both make excellent 3rd RBs behind your two great starters. In the 5th, you should look at another WR, either your second or third WR depending on how your previous picks played out. There are still some very solid WRs available possibly including: Laveranues Coles, NYJ I rest assured that your draft preparations have left you really liking at least one of those guys. Edwards is a good bet to break out some in Cleveland especially in the second half of the season once the QB issues get resolved a bit. But my favorite by far is Santana Moss who may have an excellent shot at finishing in the top 5 for a Washington team that should be much improved this year. He already finished in the top 10 two of the last four years and looks healthy and ready this season, and he always has potential for one of those huge 200 yard, 3 TD games. He would make an awesome pick for you here. Rounds 7 and 8 These two picks are pretty easy, based on how the rest of your draft has already played out. You still need a TE, and we are planning to take one in the 7th here, the perfect place to get one. You won’t get Shockey or Heap anyore, but you should be able to get one of the following: Kellen Winslow, CLE Keep Witten as a last option, but you should be able to get one of the others. I’m not high on Winslow as his injury scares me, but both Cooley and Crumpler are in my top five and are just as good as any other TE not named Gates. Your other pick here will depend on your 4th round selection. If you took Brady or Brees there, then you only have two WRs so far and you need to add your third starter here. You can pick your favorite sleeper from this group: Vincent Jackson, SD There are a lot of fun names there, and you surely like at least one or two of them a ton as a good third WR. If you have waited on QB, you may be just as fortunate since you are probably going to see a few of these names now available as the last starters on the table: Matt Leinart, ARI I am personally very high on both Leinart and Roethlisberger, and being very confident that I could get one here in round 8 would probably have left me inclined to wait until now to address the position. But I also like some of those WRs quite a bit too. You’re in great shape either way. Alright at this point you should have all of your main starters, and you’ll probably want to get that backup QB pretty soon. Here are a few examples of teams you may have at this point: Pick #9 Pick #10 Pick #11 Pick #12 None of those teams has a knock-‘em-dead superstar like SJax or LT2 on it, but they are all very good contending teams that will put you in position to go for the title. Each of the teams has a pair of star RBs along with a top WR. Add in either a stud QB or another top WR, plus a very good TE, and fill out the roster, and you’re going to score a lot of points and contend with any team in the league. And that’s how you salvage a draft after drawing one of those picks at the end of the first round! | |
