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Fantasy Football 101 - Part 2By
Brandon Anderson Welcome back. In the last edition of this series, we looked at five rules for beginning fantasy footballers. These aren’t rules that will win you a championship, but they will start you off on the right foot, and they’ll help you from doing anything too ridiculous that will embarrass you in front of you family and friends. And none of them are too hard or out of your reach. Let’s take a quick review of the five rules: 1. Don’t be “that guy” who takes a quarterback in the first round. 2. Recognize the value of running backs, but don’t overdo it. 3. Don’t even think about drafting a kicker or defense before the 8th round. 4. Don’t be the guy at the end of a long run at the same position – start a new run. 5. Watch those bye weeks. Today we will look at five more rules, this time getting to some of the more intermediate fantasy football strategy. Without any further ado, rule number 6… 6. Don’t reach on that player from your favorite team – you’d be better off avoiding them until the value is just far too good to pass up. Look, everyone is a fan of some team, and you may know far more about that team than the rest of the members in your league. You also expect greatness from the guys on your team and, no doubt, have them all ranked just a little higher than the rest of your league. Oh no, not you? Come on, don’t kid yourself. I like Deion Branch too, but do you really think he’s going to put up 1200 yards and 10 TDs this season? You need a dose of reality. No matter how much you’re sure Branch is the next big thing, you absolutely cannot under any circumstances draft him before the middle of the 4th round. My first fantasy football league was with a group of guys back home in North Dakota. The league was polarized there – half were diehard Viking fans, and half diehard Packer fans. Well guess what happened… there were about 5 guys from each squad in the first two or three rounds every year. I remember one year where Brett Favre, Dorsey Levens, Antonio Freeman, Robert Brooks, Mark Chmura, Randall Cunningham, Robert Smith, Cris Carter, Jake Reed, Randy Moss, and Gary Anderson all went in the first three rounds – seriously. In just about any local league, you’re probably going to have one or two NFL teams of choice. My advice is to let your buddies fight each other over the hometown heroes. Maybe a few of the guys really ought to go that high – I mean on the list above, you had some great fantasy players form Minnesota and Green Bay – but most of them will be overvalued. Take the value your friends are passing over instead and you’ll end up with a much better team. 7. Know your scoring system. This is such an important rule and yet one that so few fantasy footballers make an effort to follow each year. You have to realize that there is no standard set of scoring for fantasy football. Every league has its own special rules that make it unique. While this is fun and interesting, it also means you need to be careful with your preparation. For example, normal scoring in many leagues has a passing TD worth 4 points, whereas all other TDs are worth 6 points. But maybe your league awards 6 points for every TD. Well, it’s not too hard to figure out, but those QBs are going to be worth a little more now. One big week from a QB can get you a win almost by itself, and you need to adjust your rankings accordingly. Keep an eye out for negatives. Many leagues penalize a point or two for interceptions and fumbles lost. There can also be negatives for kicks missed and for points allowed on defense. These are not necessarily make-or-break statistics, but they can be good tiebreaker stats to keep track of. A really important stat is points per receptions, often abbreviated PPR. More and more leagues are moving to PPR and you’ll see that acronym all around fantasy sites. It is what it looks like – your backs and receivers get a half a point or often even a full point for each catch. This changes a lot of things for you. Receivers are suddenly worth a lot more, and the average level WR outscores the average RB. Also your RB rankings will change dramatically. Guys like Brian Westbrook and Reggie Bush go from borderline #1 starters to top 5 superstars. This is a big rule. There may be other rule variations too. Part of this also has to do with your roster requirements. Some leagues require you to start 2 QBs, so they will obviously be worth a bit more. Some leagues have a few flex spots. In my PPR leagues, knowing that the average WR outscores the average RB makes it easy to fill those flex spots while my buddies are busy scooping up mediocre RBs. I can’t prepare you for every scoring or rule glitch. Just take a few minutes and read them, and adjust your cheatsheets and plans accordingly. 8. Remember that your goal isn’t necessarily to draft the highest points available – it is to outscore your opponent. I am obviously assuming head to head here, which is the direction most leagues are going these days. This rule can be a confusing one, but let me use some names to help you understand. A classic example here is Antonio Gates, an always controversial third round selection. Many people have a huge problem with drafting a TE so high, especially since he will score around 150 points compared to any number of 200+ point performers at RB and WR and a few 250+ point guys at QB. So let’s say you take Gates instead of that WR you were eyeing, Roy Williams. Then in the fifth round, instead of taking Todd Heap as planned, you end up grabbing Mark Clayton because you need a WR now. Now it just so happens that week one of the season, you’re playing the guy with Roy and Heap, and you don’t like your chances… your WRs look weak after all. Clayton has a decent week with 70 yards, but Roy has 100 yards and a TD. As for your TEs, Heap has an average 40 yard performance while Gates puts up a nifty 90 yards and a TD. Let’s do the math. You got 7 points from Clayton, to 16 for his Roy Williams. But he got 4 points for Heap to your 15 from Gates. Add it up – he gained 9 at WR, you gained 11 at TE, and you win that battle. Maybe that helps you understand the point here. Just because Roy Williams looked like he would score the most points in the third round – and he will surely have more points than Gates at year’s end – that didn’t necessarily make him the best pick. The better pick is the player who outscores the others at his own position by the most. Draft accordingly. 9. Take a look at a few mock drafts, or real ones if you have access, before your own draft. You may think this is a waste of time, but it may be very valuable in the long run. The idea here is to develop a better idea of where you can expect particular players to be drafted. Every pick you have – heck, every single spot in a draft – is a valuable commodity that you dare not waste. Marshawn Lynch is a sleeper on many lists this year at RB. Maybe you like him a lot, and you want to make him your second RB, so you’re all set to take him in the 2nd round. But hold on just a minute. If you had done your homework and perused a few other drafts first, you probably would have noticed that Lynch is consistently dropping to the 4th round, sometimes even the 5th. Maybe Lynch really is as valuable as you think he is, but he’s still much more valuable to you as a 4th round pick than as a 2nd rounder. Why? The answer is obvious if you think about it. You take Lynch two rounds later and now you have an extra 2nd round pick instead of a 4th. So instead of reaching for Marc Bulger, you have Peyton Manning, or instead of gambling on Plaxico Burress you are sitting pretty with Torry Holt or Terrell Owens. One of the cardinal sins in building a good team is failing to maximize the value of your draft picks. If you reach a round or two early for a guy you particularly want, you are hurting the rest of your team – even if you are right about the guy. Come prepared, and know where you need to draft your favorite sleepers. 10. Come to the draft with a plan, but don’t stick to it to a fault. It’s always good to have an idea of what you plan on doing as you begin a draft. Maybe you decide you will take a RB right away and then grab another star RB and great WR in the 2nd and 3rd rounds in whatever order makes sense. Then you plan to take a QB in the 4th, another WR in the 5th, and figure things out from there. Hey, I’ve got no problem with that plan at all. You gave yourself some flexibility, you valued the positions well, and you’re set up in good shape. The draft starts and your plan is working out great. So far you have Joseph Addai, Maurice Jones-Drew, and Roy Williams and you absolutely love your team. Now it’s the 4th round and it’s time for you to draft your QB. But since your last pick there’s been a myriad of QBs taken including Carson Palmer, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Donovan McNabb, and Marc Bulger and now the highest quarterback left on your list is Vince Young. DON’T take him. Just step back for a minute and look. With all of these QBs surprising you and going so early, someone value must have fallen, right? Someone other than a QB? You take a look at the draft board and notice that somehow both Anquan Boldin and Antonio Gates have slipped through the cracks. Now what makes more sense… desperately reaching for your next QB and staying on plan, or making a switch on the fly and taking the far more valuable WR or TE? It’s great to come into draft day with a plan, but you just never know how things are going to shake out. The sleeper you’re sure no one’s ever heard of might get stolen out from under your nose, and it could disrupt your entire draft plan. Stay calm. Adjust your rankings and plan. Move forward. You have to be ready, but you also have to be flexible. Alright, ten rules down, and five to go. Check back soon for the final installment… | |
