Fantasy Football Sleepers - Quarterbacks By
Brandon Anderson
8/7/07
A Sports Outlaw Exclusive Yes, this is yet another sleepers article, but this one
will be a little different than you're used to. Anyone can throw a bunch of
late draftee names into an article, see a couple of them stick, and call it
a day. I intend to look for sleepers throughout the draft, not just in the
last few rounds. After all, draft picks are valuable. If you want to be
successful in your draft, you’ve got to maximize the value of every single
draft pick, not just get lucky in the last couple rounds. A 10th round sleeper that hits probably
performs like a 5th or 6th rounder and gets you a good
role player. A 4th round sleeper that hits might end up
performing like a top 15 or 20 player and give you a great shot at winning a
championship. Both sorts of sleepers are important. It’s just a matter of
finding guys whose real value outweighs their average draft position (ADP).
The players below are valuable in reference to their draft slot in a 12-team
league with normal scoring. If you can get a bunch of these guys, I like
your chances in your draft. Let’s get started with some QB sleepers today… Tom Brady, NE
ADP: 4.01
Tom Brady, sleeper? What is this, 2002? No, it’s 2007, and
Tom Brady is my #1 QB going into the season. That’s right, above Peyton
Manning. He has been a top ten QB his whole career, and this year ought to
be his best ever. He’s never had a WR as good as his new deep threat… and
that’s Donte Stallworth. Randy Moss is a one of a kind talent and will
elevate Brady’s game too. The yardage was down last season, and the reason
was easy to see: his yards per attempt (YPA) dropped from 7.8 in 2004 and
2005 down a whole yard to 6.8 last year. Expect it to increase this year
with WRs who can actually run patterns and catch the ball, probably to a
career high 8 or higher. Add in 26-30 TDs and you’ve got the #1 QB in the
league at the top of the fourth round. Ben Roethlisberger, PIT
ADP 9.05
 Roethlisberger had a whale of a year last season. He had a
motorcycle accident in June that left him alive but with a handful of broken
bones and a lot of mental problems. Somehow he was ready for week 1 before
his appendix burst and cost him a game. Later in the year he had a
concussion and struggled with accuracy all season, throwing 5 more picks
than TDs. Rough year for the big fella. Oh yeah, one more thing – he
still finished #9 in your QB rankings. Fast forward a year.
Roethlisberger has had a quiet offseason and is learning a new offense that
promises to be more wide open and let him chuck it more often. He has more
weapons now than ever in his career. Parker is already banged up going into
the year, so that could mean more passes too. Add in a likely bounceback
year with Big Ben’s YPA (like Brady) and throw in a few TDs, and you get my
#6 QB and my #1 QB sleeper. Brett Favre, GB
ADP: 9.11
It’s 2007, Brett Favre has played Hall of Fame football
for the better part of two decades, and yet he still slips between the
cracks to sleeper status. Last year was a tough year for Favre, with career
lows in TDs and completion percentage while playing most of the season with
one legitimate receiver. But there he was, #8 among QBs at the end of the
season – in your top 10 fantasy QBs just like he has every single season
in his 14 year career as a starter. Don’t bet against history. Favre will
find a way into your top 10 again. And sure, he’s unstartable for some
matchups now, but doesn’t that just make the other ones that much more
valuable since he’s going to end up in the top 10? Think about it. If half
his games put him at the #20 QB, the other half will have to be top 5 QB
starts to get him backup to the top 10 where he finishes every single year. Jason Campbell, WAS
ADP: 14.04 
My next sleeper is a QB entering his second year as a
starter, his first full one. He did not start until the latter part of the
2006 season but got into a groove, throwing 10 TDs over the last 7 games of
the season with at least one in each game. Well the surprise is spoiled a
bit now, but I bet if you were told those things in a vacuum, you would have
tried to guess Vince Young, Matt Leinart, and Jay Cutler before even
considering Campbell… and yet Campbell slips to near undrafted status while
the other three are trendy 7th round “sleepers.” Campbell also
has a trump card in his pocket – offensive coordinator Al Saunders. In
Saunders’ three final years in Kansas City, he turned an average Trent Green
into a 4000 yard passing machine, a top 10 fantasy QB each year. Campbell
will continue to be overlooked in your league, but he will finish in the top
15 QBs by season’s end. Tarvaris Jackson, MIN
ADP: Undrafted
Alright, I admit it – I’m a Vikings homer. But let me
explain here. This is a vote for the value of QBs with rushing ability, of
which Jackson is one of the few remaining. With McNabb and Culpepper banged
up, their rushing stats have fallen off and are not a big factor anymore.
Michael Vick is off fighting legal issues. The only other QB with rushing
stats as a real asset is Vince Young, and we all know he will succumb to the
Madden Curse at some point. The fact is that Jackson should lead all QBs in
rushing this year. He averaged about 25 yards a game as a starter, which
comes to 400 in a season. You know there will be a few rushing TDs as well.
And sure, the passing stats promise to be pretty abysmal. But even if he
ends up with only 2500 yards and 15 TDs in the air – among the worst in the
league, no doubt – that’s 220 fantasy points and that puts him at #20 in
last year’s fantasy rankings. I’m not expecting an explosion here, but that
#15-20 range is where you should expect to find Tarvaris at the end of the
season if he stays healthy. If you draft Brady or Manning early, Jackson’s a
great chance for you to pass on backup QB completely until the last round of
your draft and still be just fine. Check back tomorrow for some RB sleepers… | |
