Fantasy Football Sleepers - Running Backs By
Brandon Anderson
8/8/07
A Sports Outlaw Exclusive It’s running back day here in Sleeperville. And let me
start by being very specific with the scoring today. This is based on a
12-team league with normal scoring and no PPR – so 1 point for every 10
yards rushing or receiving, and 6 points per touchdown. With RBs more than
any other position, it is absolutely vital to be aware of your league’s
scoring. If this were a PPR (point per reception) league, the list would
change a good deal and more names would be added, such as Reggie Bush. Once again, be careful how you define a sleeper. I’m not
as interested in finding the late round sleeper who might contribute a few
weeks for me as I am in finding the 5th round “sleeper” RB who
performs like a good RB2 and lets me focus on other areas of my draft
earlier. Every draft has a huge rush of RBs at the top – I’ve played over a
decade and have yet to see a single exception. If you can correctly identify
a few later RBs to hang your hat on, you can get a huge leg up on your
league at the other positions. Off we go… Maurice Jones-Drew, JAX
ADP: 2.06
MJD is a very controversial player among fantasy gurus, one of the most
intriguing indeed. Almost no one is content to leave him as a 2nd
round RB and call it a day. Either he is being taken way too high or he’s an
absolute steal. Count me in the latter group. MJD finished in the top 8 RBs
last season despite only starting 1 game all season. In fact he had single
digit carries in over half of his games! But he was economical with his
touches, averaging a whopping 5.7 yards per carry (YPC), adding 46 catches,
and scoring a touchdown every 14 times he touched the ball! Only two players
scored more frequently per touch, and one of them was Tomlinson in his
record breaking year with a TD every 13 touches. And before you say MJD
doesn’t get enough carries to matter, note that he was getting the ball more
by the end of the season. He averaged 21 touches his last four games,
compared to Fred Taylor’s 6. This is a star on the rise, a top 5 RB
available at pick #18. Don’t miss out! Edgerrin James, ARI
ADP: 2.07
Edge had a terrible year last year by his standards with career lows in both
yards per carry and yards per catch. He also had his lowest receptions and
second lowest TDs over a full season in his career. So how can he be on this
list?? Ever heard of buy low? Even with all of that, James finished as the
#20 fantasy RB. He was certainly a disappointment as a 1st round
pick, but now he is being taken in the middle of the 2nd round as
the 16th RB off the board. How much would James have to improve
to be move up 4 spots in the rankings and be worth that 2.07 pick? A measly
0.1 YPC would have done the trick last season. So would just one more TD.
Expect the YPC and TDs to increase again this year. Arizona has a new
run-oriented smashmouth style coach in Ken Whisenhunt and they focused for
the first time in years on gelling and improving the offensive line. Edge
already gets the touches – he was #5 in carries last season and top 10 in
passing targets – so as the young offense improves around him, his
production will increase. Oh and the easiest schedule in the league helps
too. Edge is a no downside pick in the middle of the 2nd with
upside for a spot in the top 10 or higher. Marion Barber III, DAL
ADP: 5.11
My colleague Mike will beg to differ on this one, and we’ll just have to
agree to disagree. I’m a bit unsure of reports coming out of Dallas
regarding their RB situation and have dropped Barber from where I used to
have him, which was just barely outside the top 10. Even so he is easily in
the top 20 RBs and still makes a great bargain RB2 if you need one at the
end of the 5th round. MB3 is a TD monster. If you read closely
under MJD above you probably noticed that there were two players in the
league who scored more frequently per touch. Tomlinson was second with 1 TD
in just over 13 touches. Barber was first and it wasn’t close – a TD every
10.5 times he touched the rock. Historically RBs with this many TDs (he had
16 last year) do not see a huge dropoff very often. So even if MB3 continues
to split carries but gets the goal line touches, he’ll make a very good RB2
again. And if he starts carrying the full time load too, you just found
yourself a top 10 RB. Jerious Norwood, ATL
ADP: 5.12
I am a bit hesitant to put Norwood on this list because I’m not as high on
him as the others, but I still consider him a solid sleeper. Like Barber,
this is a guy you can feel decent about as a RB2 if you have managed to grab
two stud WRs and a stud QB already. Warrick Dunn is missing most of training
camp due to injury, so Norwood has a great opportunity to make an impression
under new head coach Bobby Petrino. Petrino was fond of backs with a bigger
frame and a pounding style, and Norwood fits that motif to perfection. He
pounded defenses last year for an amazing 6.4 YPC. Atlanta will probably
struggle this year, so you may take some lumps along the way, but Norwood
should be worth it in the end. Lamont Jordan, OAK
ADP: 6.12
If I had to guess, I’d say this ADP is roughly 5 rounds lower than this time
last year for exactly the same player. Jordan struggled with back issues all
last season and played on one of the worst offenses I’ve ever seen outside
of North Dakota high school football. He should be healthy again this year
and the Raiders as a whole can’t help but be better. New head coach Lane
Kiffin was an offensive wizard for USC and produced great fantasy RBs.
Jordan was a great fantasy RB himself just two years ago on a very average
Raiders team with 11 TDs and almost 1600 combined yards. I’m not suggesting
he’ll get even close to either of those, but the upside is there. Rookie
Michael Bush may not be healthy enough to play at all this year, and new
backfield mate Dominic Rhodes is suspended for the first four games, so
Jordan should be the starter from day one. Two of the first three games are
home against Detroit and Cleveland, so Jordan may start hot and not give
anyone else a chance to steal looks. Go ahead, take a risk – he’s a
fantastic RB3. Brandon Jackson, GB
ADP: 7.06
 This
one is all about opportunity being more important than talent sometimes.
Vernand Morency injured his knee on the first day of practice a week ago and
is out indefinitely. It’s not supposed to be serious, but it looks like it’s
enough of a window to let Jackson practice with the first team. Like Jordan
above, don’t be surprised if Jackson takes the reins and doesn’t look back.
Green Bay almost always seems to have a pretty good fantasy RB. Ahman Green
had a very tough year last year and finished 15th. Noah Herron
and Vernand Morency were also good plays a few games last year, and
undrafted rookie Samkon Gado became a fantasy star for the final two months
of 2005. Green Bay produces fantasy RBs who get regular catches and TDs.
This is all about opportunity for Jackson, who is not even top 50 in RB
talent but may end up top 20 in fantasy stats by season’s end. Michael Bennett, KC
ADP: 15.06
This is as much a vote against Larry Johnson as it is one for Michael
Bennett. Bennett has looked healthy and good in camp so far, and I’m
convinced that he is still the starter if – and by if, I mean when – LJ
misses time due to holdout or injury. I’m not going to get into my feelings
on Johnson this year, but let’s just say that he’s not in my top 25 RBs in
my rankings. I don’t expect much from Bennett even if he does start, but he
should be decent enough in the yardage department to be a usable substitute
RB for you. I am not buying the Priest Holmes comeback, and Kolby Smith does
nothing for me either. I think Bennett would be the benefactor, and I think
there’s a 75% chance he ends up starting a handful of games or more this
season. And let’s face it – you could do much worse than a probably starting
NFL RB in the 15th of any draft. So there are your RB sleepers – not your ordinary list
indeed. Tomorrow we will dig through some receivers. If you want a preview,
look for two pairs of guys who share the same last name… | |
