Fantasy Football Sleepers - Wide Receivers

Fantasy Football Sleepers - Wide Receivers

By Brandon Anderson
8/9/07
A Sports Outlaw Exclusive

Perhaps no position in football has a bigger turnover in the top 20 than WR. Injuries take their toll every year and so too does age. A lot of other factors play in as well, and WR production is thus very difficult to predict accurately. If you need proof, look no further than the 3^rd and 4^th rounds. You’ll find a lot of tantalizing WRs there but while there are a few who may finish in the top 10, there’s probably also a handful who will disappoint and miss the top 30 or worse. And since most leagues start more than 2 WRs now, it’s vital to have your eye on a few middle or late WRs to boost your squad. Yesterday I promised you a pair of players with the same last name. Did you guess who they were? If you were hoping for Darrell and Vincent Jackson, you came to the wrong place. Try a familiar fantasy name (Moss) and a familiar America name (Jones) instead…

Randy Moss, NE
ADP: 4.03
We’ve already had a pretty candid discussion here at Sports Outlaw about Randy Moss this season. Like many years past (as a long time Vikings’ fan), I find myself on an island defending Moss’s value. I could write a whole article on Moss, but I’m going to keep this short and refer you to the discussion above. Both Tom Brady and Randy Moss have never played with a player as talented as one another before. Moss was terrible last year and bad the previous two years but he still finished in the top 20 in both years, which means even his downside is very high – and I don’t need to tell you that his upside is through the roof. Also, don’t overlook one important fact. Moss has always been a step faster and a far better player on turf than on grass. In Oakland, he would’ve played 15 of 16 games on grass this year. In New England, it will be 15 games on turf. Does Moss come with a big question mark? Absolutely. But all signs point to go, and this is a potential 4^th round steal that can make your draft. Do you have the balls to draft Terrell Owens in the 2^nd round? Moss is TO (head case, good but not great yardage, huge TDs) but two rounds later. Give him a shot. Oh, and for more on Mr. Randy, take a look here: http://www.sofantasyfootball.com/nfl/t12896/.

Marques Colston, NO
ADP: 4.04
I’m not quite certain why all of the sophomore QBs and RBs are being hyped through the roof while this sophomore WR continues to drop a little too far in every draft. Did you forget already that Colston was the #1 WR in the fantasy world for the first half of last season? During his first nine games, he put up 869 yards and 7 TDs, a pace of about 1575 yards and 12 TDs over a full season. That is over 14 fantasy points a game, well ahead of last year’s #1 WR Marvin Harrison. So why didn’t he hit those numbers? It’s a simple answer, really. Colston suffered a high ankle sprain in week 10 against Cincinnati, and the injury cost him three games. It also hampered him for the rest of the season as a high ankle sprain will do to any athlete – many professional athletes sit out weeks or months, and the injury never heals completely til the offseason. Well consider Colston healthy and ready to rock. Remember all those years when Joe Horn was a top 7 fantasy mainstay? Colston is better and in a more explosive offense. Don’t miss out on him in the 4^th round.

Santana Moss, WAS
ADP: 6.02
How’s your sixth grade math? Mini Moss finished 27^th last year among WRs but 3^rd the year before. The year before that (2004) he was just 33^rd, but 8^th the year before. Are you seeing a progression yet? Up, down, up, down last year… that must mean this is an up year for Santana. Moss struggled with a groin injury much of last year that took away his speed and cost him most of November, and it showed in his numbers. His YPC dropped from 18.6 and 17.7 the previous two years to 14.4 last season. Once Moss was mostly healthy and playing with new QB Jason Campbell near the end of the season, his numbers jumped to 326 yards and 3 TDs in those last five games. Mini Moss is a special WR who can spring for a huge game once or twice a season. He’ll be a good WR2 with a couple of those monster games that will win you a matchup on their own. That’s exactly what you should be looking for in a 6^th round WR.

Chris Chambers, MIA
ADP: 6.06
Chambers struggled mightily last year and drew the ire of many fantasy fans across the country, and this seems to be the reason that he is consistently dropping a full round too low in drafts this year. Was it a bad year? With career lows in yards and TDs, I should have to say so – he was a complete bust. But did it ever strike you that it might not have been totally his fault? It wasn’t the coaching staff’s fault. They tried hard to get the ball to Chambers, and he was the 4^th most targeted WR in the league behind only Torry Holt, Donald Driver, and Andre Johnson. The problem was the guy throwing the passes. Or guys, I should say. Daunte Culpepper, Joey Harrington, and Cleo Lemon averaged just 6 yards per pass, bottom three in the league, and completed less than 58% of their passes. Trent Green is no longer a star QB, but he should stabilize the position and, in turn, Chambers’ fantasy value. And don’t forget about new coach Cam Cameron who likes to feed the ball to his redzone targets. Chambers is no Antonio Gates by build, but he’s been just as good of a redzone target, and his TD number should spike again in a bounceback year.

Joey Galloway, TB
ADP: 7.02
Let’s talk about top 15 WRs. Here’s one who finished 11^th and 12^th in the WR rankings the last two years. It’s Plaxico Burress, a 4^th round pick this year. Here’s another who finished 9^th and 13^th, another 4^th round pick this year in Donald Driver. Throw in TJ Houshmandzadeh (14^th, 11^th) and Anquan Boldin (9^th, 17^th) as good but not great WRs who are likely 3^rd and 4^th round picks this year. So why does this all matter? Joey Galloway finished 5^th and 15^th the last two seasons, good WR2 numbers like each of the names above. And yet for some reason he is a 7^th round pick instead of going three or four rounds higher? What gives? I don’t know, but I’m not complaining. I guess Galloway isn’t a sexy pick. I guess people don’t like 2300 yards and 17 TDs the last two seasons. And Tampa was awful last year while Galloway still starred in the offense and finished in the top 15. He should be there yet again this year.

DJ Hackett, SEA
ADP: 8.10
I realize that Hackett is a pretty popular sleeper out there, but this is one that I think people have actually gotten right. Hackett was just the third WR on his team last season (if that) but quietly had a very nice second half of the year with 34 catches, 468 yards, and 3 TDs. Double that and it’s already a pretty nice looking season. But there’s a bigger reason to like Hackett this year. Darrell Jackson is finally out in Seattle, and he was the guy that always seemed to become Hasselbeck’s redzone security blanket. And if it wasn’t DJax, it was Joe Jurevicius for a season. Hasselbeck loves that tall redzone target. Hackett is 6’2 and may be the beneficiary this year, pushing for 7-10 TDs this season in a good Seattle offense. He’s worth a late pickup.

Brandon Jones, TEN
ADP: 11.03
Almost every year, some WR emerges from out of nowhere after missing the top 50 the previous season to become a top 10 guy at his position by year’s end. Drew Bennett, Anquan Boldin, and David Boston are some of the best examples in the past decade. Marques Colston should have been on the list last year too if not for a high ankle sprain (see above). So what do these players have in common? They were all very young and had not broken out yet. They each played on very poor overlooked teams heading into the season. And they each were their team’s only legitimate receiver, and opportunity struck. My gut says Brandon Jones is the guy this year. He’s on a team no one is expecting much from, and he’s not done a lot before. But with David Givens looking down and out for the year he’ll get his chances, and he’s finally recovered from an ACL tear as well. No promises here, but I for one will not be shocked if I see his name in the top 10 at year’s end.

Matt Jones, JAX
ADP: 11.11
Yeah I know, we’ve all seen Matt Jones on sleeper lists before, and I can’t promise this year will be any different but there are glimmers of hope. First of all, opportunity may be knocking at last. Ernest Wilford is struggling with a knee injury and Reggie Williams is so far in the doghouse that there are rumors of him being cut soon. And if you look at Jones carefully last year, you see that he did indeed progress since his rookie year. He had 144 yards in his first two games before straining his hamstring and going MIA for the next two and a half months. But when the hammy finally got healthy, Jones looked good again in his last six games with 328 yards and 4 TDs. He has the build to be a serious TD threat, and he does seem to be developing at a good pace for a young player who has only played WR for two years of his life. This is the same sleeper you had to use a 6^th or 7^th round pick on last year, and his situation looks improved this year. Give him a shot.

Steve Smith, NYG
ADP: 15.06
Imagine, Steve Smith on a WR sleepers list. I actually considered putting the other one on here just because he’s my far and away #1 guy, but that’s an article for another day. I believe that this one is good enough that by the end of the season if you are talking about “Steve Smith” as trade bait, someone will have to ask you which one. He was always a consistent threat at USC and is a much more NFL-ready polished WR coming out than were his running mates Dwayne Jarrett and Mike Williams. He has great hands and runs good routes, and reports out of Giants camp have been raving. And the situation looks ripe for a young WR to make an impact as well. Plaxico finds his way into the doghouse every season, and Amani Toomer looks to be near the end of his career as he struggles to return from injury. Smith may not explode, but he could sneak his way into the top 30 WRs and is worth the last round flier.

That’s it for today. Tomorrow you can find one final installment of 2007 sleepers with a handful of tight ends and a couple of kickers and defenses. See you then!