Fantasy Football Sleepers - Tight Ends,
Kickers, and Defenses By
Brandon Anderson
8/10/07
A Sports Outlaw Exclusive We’ve reached the end of Sleeper week for 2007. Hope it’s
been as fun a ride for you as it has for me. Today we wrap things up with
the underbelly of the fantasy world – tight ends, kickers, and defenses.
Don’t just skip this one though. The best fantasy players out there know
that every point counts, whether it’s an advantage at RB or PK. You never
know when you just might need that last sack or extra point. Without further
ado, let’s get to today’s sleepers… Antonio Gates, SD
ADP: 3.10
Ah yes, you’ve heard of Mr. Gates I assume? Some sleeper, huh? Well
apparently so, because year after year people continue to let Gates slide
too far. He has been the #1 TE three years running, outscoring the #12 TE
(the worst starter in your league) by an average of 88 fantasy points over
that span. That difference of 88 is as many points as if you had replaced
the #30 RB Mike Bell with the #9 RB Rudi Johnson. It’s the same difference
as replacing the #28 WR Mark Clayton with the #1 WR Marvin Harrison. So go
ahead, keep passing on Gates. He is far and away the best at his position
right now and he outscores all of the other TEs by so much that he is worth
your 1st rounder, let alone an amazing value in the 3rd. Chris Cooley, WAS
ADP: 7.12
Cooley is being drafted as the 7th TE off the board, sort of a
last desperation attempt at a good TE at the end of the TE run that includes
Shockey, Gonzalez, Heap, Winslow, and Davis in some order. You would be wise
to let your league mates use up their picks on those TEs and go ahead with
Cooley a round or two later. He has quietly finished in the top 5 TEs two
years in a row and plays in a young improving offense with a coordinator who
has emphasized the TE position. And he’s already developed a good rapport
with Jason Campbell, going for 30 catches, 411 yards, and 3 TDs during
Campbell’s seven games as a starter. That projects to 70 catches for 950
yards and 7 TDs and explains why he’s in my top 3 TEs this year.  Alge Crumpler, ATL
ADP: 8.06
Like Cooley, Crumpler seems to be a desperation grab after a round or two of
TE run. And like Cooley, you would be wise to just wait and select one of
these two – one of the rare times it works to be the one “scrambling” at the
end of a position run. Crumpler has finished among the top 5 TEs in four
consecutive years, and he was #2 behind Gates last year. This year he has a
truer pocket quarterback so he may get even more looks, and he is still
Atlanta’s best receiver. As long as his injury status stays clear, he should
be a good TE value yet again. Why he isn’t included in the same group as
Gonzalez, Heap, and Shockey is beyond me. Owen Daniels, HOU
ADP: 13.08
I’m not really one to draft a backup TE usually. I get my stud and then pick
up a flier during his bye week. But if you’re someone who likes to get a
good backup, here is a great bet for you. Daniels started his rookie
campaign well with 183 yards and 5 TDs in his first two months before the
wheels fell off in Houston. He also dealt with injuries during the second
half of the season. This year he is healthy and should be a nice security
blanket for new QB Matt Schaub. The yardage isn’t enough to be a full timer
for you, but he should be a great backup and spot start guy. Jason Hanson, DET
ADP: 16.03
Kickers are never worth drafting early. There is so much turnover at the
position in fantasy football every year because there are far too many
variables to predict accurately. I always wait and draft a sleeper kicker in
the last round or two. And what do I look for? I want a kicker who plays on
a good but not great offense – one with the offensive firepower to move down
the field but not quite enough to finish it off. And I prefer kickers who
play in either domes or warm temperatures, so I’m not worried about my guy
kicking into a 35 mph gust of snow in December. Enter Hanson. The Lions have
a wide open offense that should get Hanson a lot of FG opportunities, and he
has the distance and accuracy to score plenty. Bonus for playing in a dome.
Should be a top 10 kicker. Josh Brown, SEA
ADP: 16.04
See the logic on Jason Hanson for this one. Brown is another one who fits
the bill. Seattle is no longer a great offense as the OL isn’t what it used
to be and neither are Shaun Alexander or the WR depth. Still the team should
move the ball and plays in a weak division, so they will score plenty. And
they play in a controllable stadium with a retractable roof so I don’t have
to worry about weather. Add in a bonus for distance if your league awards
for it – Brown had three FGs over 50 yards last year. Carolina Panthers D/ST
ADP: 14.02
The Panthers struggled last season, particularly on defense. The sack
numbers were still high at 6th best in the league, but they
forced just 21 turnovers, tied for 4th worst in the league. Since
most leagues award 2 points for a turnover and 1 for a sack, this meant that
the Carolina defense was relatively useless, ranking 26th in
standard scoring. But Carolina was the #1 fantasy defense just one year
prior, and they had finished in the top 12 among fantasy defense (meaning
worthy of a starting spot) every year this millennium until last year.
They’re only currently being drafted as the 11th highest defense,
but you can rest safely that they should bounce back and be a good to great
starter for you. Minnesota Vikings D/ST
ADP: 15.04
It’s tough to recommend defensive sleepers or give much advice or analysis
on defense at all because of the fact that just about every league seems to
score defense and special teams differently. I am assuming “standard”
scoring of 1 point per sack, 2 per turnover, and 6 per TD either on defense
or special teams. And in that scoring, the Minnesota Vikings are the #4
fantasy defense in back to back seasons entering 2007. Remember, a good
fantasy defense does not have to be a great defense in real life. Why do the
Vikings consistently finish so high? Easy, they are on the field a lot and
they gamble a lot. The Vikings have forced 36 and 35 turnovers the past two
seasons, second most in the league, and they’ve scored 8 defensive
touchdowns, also second most in the league. If your league does not penalize
for points allowed – and most don’t, it seems – the Vikings have actually
become a stud defense. Arizona Cardinals defense
ADP: undrafted
So what makes a good fantasy defense? Well, I want my defense to be on the
field a lot. Check. I want them to have guys with a nose for the ball, real
playmakers. Arizona has studs Adrian Wilson and Karlos Dansby, so check
there as well. I also love to see a bigtime kick returner, and Arizona has
just added returner extraordinaire Steve Breaston from Michigan so that
solves that problem. Add a tougher mentality with new coach Ken Whisenhunt
and Arizona’s defense should be improved and ready to go – and they were
already the #7 fantasy defense with standard scoring last year! So there you have it, my list of sleepers for 2007. These
are guys who should outperform their draft spot this year and get you the
best bang for your fantasy buck. If you find a way to load up your roster
with the guys on these lists, I have to like your chances for a big fantasy
season and a shot at the trophy by year’s end. Good luck! | |
