Fantasy Football Busts - Quarterbacks By
Brandon Anderson
8/18/07
A Sports Outlaw Exclusive Last week we talked about sleepers at each fantasy
position. And it wasn’t your ordinary sleepers article with a bunch of late
round third stringers who may come through, but rather a look at “sleepers”
to be found throughout your draft relative to their Average Draft Position
(ADP) – a look at what players give you the most bang for your buck. If you
haven’t yet, you should definitely check it out. This week is the counter series… it’s a look at ADP busts.
Get ready because you’re going to see a lot of familiar names on these
lists. The biggest ADP busts are the ones who bust your team early. You can
probably handle your 7th round sleeper WR not working out for you
because he may be easily replaceable, but a bust in one of your first few
picks can crush your entire draft. Some people just aren’t worth drafting at
their pick. Let’s start with QBs today. Be reminded that we are using
standard scoring here, a simple 1 point per 25 yards passing with 4 points
per passing TD, and we are assuming a 12 team league that starts just 1 QB.
Let’s get to it… Peyton Manning, IND
ADP: 1.12
 Well
this one should certainly get the masses riled up right off the bat. Peyton
Manning, fantasy bust? Manning has been a lot of things in his career, by
fantasy bust has not often been one of them, right? You’ve got to look a
little more carefully at the numbers to find this answer. I’m not saying
that Manning is an outright bust. He’s in my top 3 QBs and I will be very
surprised if he’s not up there by the end of the season. But this is about
ADP, and Peyton Manning simply isn’t worth a first round pick. He did finish
1st among fantasy QBs last year but – are you ready for this? –
it was the first time in his entire career that he did so. Oh sure he’s been
#2 twice, #3 three times, and #4 twice. His consistency is remarkable and it
will put him on a first ballot Hall of Fame roster someday. But he is far
from being a runaway #1 stud QB in standard leagues. In 2005, he was beat
out by Carson Palmer and Tom Brady. In 2003, Matt Hasselbeck and Trent Green
were within 1 ppg. In 2002 it was Rich Gannon, Michael Vick, and Drew
Bledsoe. Almost every year Manning has company at the top. And you can get
one of those guys in good company a few rounds later. Carson Palmer might
not make it to the end of the third, but Tom Brady and Drew Brees should,
and one of them will probably slip into the fourth round too. And Jon Kitna
may not be a star but he is available a full five rounds later and may end
up close to the top too. QB is a deep position and there are a lot of very
good ones in fantasy football. Your 1.12 pick (or your 2nd
rounder for that matter) is far too valuable to be using on a QB. Pick the
valuable RB or the superstar WR and get your QB later. Marc Bulger, STL
ADP: 4.09
One of the cardinal rules in fantasy football is to never be caught at the
end of a run. Enter Marc Bulger. You’re sitting in the bottom half of the 4th
round. You already have a superstar RB and a great second, and you’ve got a
stud WR to go with them. It’s pick 4.02 and only two QBs have been taken.
You can just smell Brady or Brees on your roster. But your heart breaks as
they go just a couple picks before you. But hey, Bulger is almost as good
right? Lots of weapons, good upside, let’s go for it – and you pick him
before all the stud QBs are gone. Guess what… all the stud QBs already
were gone. Bulger has made it through a whole season healthy just once,
and that was last year. And during that Pro Bowl campaign, he still
had only 24 TDs (a career high) and still finished just sixth among
fantasy QBs. This is a guy who fired on all cylinders last year and hit his
ceiling, and the ceiling made him an average starting fantasy QB. He’s not
worth your 4th round pick even if he does match last year’s
number, let alone if he drops after a career year. Vince Young, TEN
ADP: 7.02
Let’s say one thing first. Vince Young was the best QB in fantasy
football over the final six weeks of last season – ahead of Peyton, ahead of
everyone else. So take this one with a grain of salt. I could look really
silly at the end of the year, and VY could actually end up being the late
stud QB who carries your team. But I’m not buying the hype. This is not last
season anymore. The best player on Tennesee’s offense, defense, and special
teams are gone (Travis Henry for the first, Pacman Jones for the other two).
Gone too are Young’s top three receivers from last season, Drew Bennett and
Bobby Wade to free agency and David Givens to injury. Look I know the guy is
Superman but you can only do so much with no field position, no run game,
and no one to throw to. Teams have had a whole offseason to get ready for
Young now and they won’t let him run wild on them anymore. And running QBs
have an extremely difficult time staying healthy and producing consistent
fantasy points. Young does not have a good passing component to his game
yet, and he is not ready to be a consistent fantasy star. Yes, he’ll
probably have a couple eye-popping games, but he’s not someone you want to
count on just yet. Not to mention that one other reason not to like VY this
year…  Philip Rivers, SD
ADP: 7.11
Yes, Rivers was a top 10 fantasy QB last season in his first year as a
starter. But he was #10 and had the lowest fantasy point total of any top 10
QB in a decade, so take that ranking with a grain of salt. This is not the
same Chargers team as last year. The team members are the same, but
literally the entire coaching staff has been overhauled – not just the head
coach but both coordinators and several assistants as well. This was the
best offense in the league last year and they are due for a letdown with a
tougher schedule, a new system, and everyone keying in on them. Rivers still
doesn’t have any good WRs (no, Vincent Jackson doesn’t count yet). And I
don’t buy the argument that Tomlinson’s TDs will surely drop this year and
that means more points for Rivers. Yes, Tomlinson will get fewer TDs, but
did you ever think that maybe the offense simply won’t score as much? Rivers
is not worth the 7.11 pick because he is flat out boring and has very little
upside. He is a panic pick, the 11th or 12th starter
taken by someone at the end of the second QB run. Why use your 7th
round pick on a guy whose ceiling is about what he did last year – around
3400 passing yards, somewhere between 20-25 TDs, and no rushing points? Yeah
that will put him consistently in the 10-20 range of fantasy QBs, but who
cares? Wait another round or two. You can still get Ben Roethlisberger,
Brett Favre, Jake Delhomme, Eli Manning, or a handful of others who should
end up with just as good of numbers and at a cheaper price. I’m not saying
Rivers will bust outright, but like Peyton above, he just isn’t worth the
pick invested. Steve McNair, BAL
ADP: 13.10
Okay, so it’s probably a little week to list Steve McNair as a bust – after
all, what are people really expecting from the guy? Well he is being taken
as the 24th QB off the board, the last backup probably to the
team who drafted Manning or Palmer. So what is there to lose here? We’re
talking about a guy who will start one game all season. Exactly. If
you are only counting on someone for one game, why waste your time on a
vanilla no-upside oft-injured backup? McNair hasn’t been relevant in fantasy
football for three years, and he’s only played a 16 game season in three of
the last eight years. Why not go ahead and take a flier on a guy with upside
here? What about Tarvaris Jackson for his rushing stats? What about taking a
risk with Daunte Culpepper, a guy who will probably completely bust but
could also turn into a top 10, even top 5 fantasy QB and awesome trade bait?
There are others too. What is the downside here? If Manning or Palmer goes
down, McNair isn’t going to save your season. You are worried about losing a
couple of points the one week you would play him. Live on the wildside. Go
get some upside. Don’t waste a roster spot on McNair. Alright, that’s it for QBs. If you thought there were some
surprising names today, wait until you see the RB bust list. You’re going to
see four of the top 15 picks there. Don’t miss it… | |
