Fantasy Football Busts - Running Backs

Fantasy Football Busts - Running Backs

By Brandon Anderson
8/19/07
A Sports Outlaw Exclusive

Last time we were here, we looked a few likely quarterback busts based on ADP. Today the gloves come off as we look at the most important position in fantasy football, the running back. A great RB in the first round or two can carry your team all season, all the way to the championship. But every RB taken that early is expected to be that great. The truth is that there are very few RBs even at the highest level who can give you a huge advantage on your competition – guys like LaDainian Tomlinson being the obvious exception – but there are always a lot of early RB picks who bust and crush their owners’ chances.

Don’t believe me? Think back to last year’s first round. Ronnie Brown, Cadillac Williams, and Lamont Jordan all filed in near the end of the round and none of them even finished in the top 24 to merit being a starting RB2. Edgerrin James was a huge disappointment at #20, and the injury bug hit Shaun Alexander and dropped him to #28. Ditto for Clinton Portis who never overcame that preseason injury and finished at #36. In fact, how many of last year’s first round RBs actually finished in the top 10? I would say five – Tomlinson, Larry Johnson, Steven Jackson, Tiki Barber, and Rudi Johnson. And before you say that last year was just a down year, a year of change, you are wrong. Last year was in fact a good year for RBs – normally so far this decade an average of only 4 RBs repeat top 10 performances from one season to the next.

Well Tiki Barber is obviously not going to be top 10 again, and Ladell Betts seems like a good bet (pardon the pun) to drop out as well. But that still means that history shows four of the other eight from last year’s studs to drop out of the top 10 this year. Can you picture a top 10 without four of Tomlinson, L Johnson, Jackson, R Johnson, Gore, Parker, Westbrook, and Jones-Drew?

Start imagining it. The first round busts will hit early and often. Let’s get to the nitty and gritty…

Larry Johnson, KC
ADP: 1.03
There are so many warning signs for Larry Johnson that I don’t even know where to start. Even if everything was in place with his contract and there were no injury concerns, there are other reasons to be worried. The offensive line continues to deteriorate. What used to be the very best in the league may not even be in the top half anymore, and the better players there continue to age. Long time starter Trent Green is gone and replaced by a likely “rookie” starter in Brodie Croyle. If teams stacked 8 in the box to stop LJ before, they may be stacking 9 or 10 this year. That is, if Johnson even plays. He is in the midst of a nasty holdout right now, hoping for an improvement over his meager contract. That part doesn’t worry me so much actually. Reports have the sides nearing agreement, and I think Johnson will want to play in the end.

But he might be better off holding out for that big payday. He had an NFL record 416 carries last season, and while that was nice for you last year, it definitely isn’t this year. Only five other RBs have ever had 390 or more carries in a season: James Wilder, Eric Dickerson, Jamal Anderson, Terrell Davis, and Eddie George. You may recognize guys on that list as players who seemed destined to the Hall of Fame before a mid-career injury derailed them. For all but George, that injury came the following season. For all of them, their TDs and rushing stats, particularly the yards per carry (YPC) were never the same. Maybe Johnson is different… but maybe 400 carries in a rough and tough league are just too much on a mortal human body. Ignore all the warning signs if you like. I’m guessing that Johnson will be signed soon, and that should solidify him as the #3 pick again in every draft. Hope you either don’t draw that pick or else have the balls to look elsewhere.

Frank Gore, SF
ADP: 1.04
Unlike Larry Johnson, the warning signs with Frank Gore are much more subtle – and to be fair, I expect Gore to “bust” a lot less too. Gore has only played one healthy season in his football career – and that was last year. Last year was also the first time ever really where he was the full time RB and carried the whole load. No one is complaining after what we saw last year, but you have to wonder which was the exception – last season as a workhorse and healthy all year, or all the other years where he struggled with injury and split carries.

There does not seem to be much of a threat of splitting carries with no other legitimate RBs on the roster, but the injury bug has already bitten Gore. He looks to miss much of the preseason with a broken hand. It doesn’t seem like too major of an injury, so many probably haven’t dropped him too much. But – as obvious as it seems, it has to be said – that broken hand is what he has to hold the ball with. He already had significant struggles with fumbling last season, and a broken hand can’t help that. That hand is going to get banged on every carry Gore logs. Last year there was a player who injured himself early in the preseason with something that didn’t seem too serious or lasting, a shoulder injury for top 5 pick Clinton Portis. As you know, it bothered him all season and he was never a very productive fantasy player. For a player with such an injury history as Gore, it just isn’t good to see him hurt before the year even begins. The TD numbers were already not great for a top 5 pick, and you have to believe his amazing 5.4 YPC will be affected with the injury and without offensive coordinator Norv Turner, who has the Midas touch for fantasy RBs. The guess here is that Gore still finishes in the top 20 and may even be a low RB1 when all is said and done, but he should not be a top 5 pick at this point.

Shaun Alexander, SEA
ADP: 1.06
Alexander was the last second addition to this list, so make it 1/2 of the top 6 RBs on the average draft board that I am calling a bust. I had been holding off on calling him a bust because of the unreal touchdown numbers he has posted in the five years before last. An incredible 98 TDs, just under 20 per season. It would be natural to assume that he will bounce right back for another 15-20 TDs this year, but I’m not so sure. Seattle’s offense is not what it used to be. Their best receiver Darrell Jackson is gone, and the OL struggled last year without Steve Hutchinson. Alexander did not find nearly as much running room last year. After increasing his YPC four seasons in a row, it plummeted last year to just 3.6, awful for a starting RB. In fact only twice all year did he have a YPC over 4 (average for a starter) in a game. Part of that may have been due to the injury but it could also be Alexander’s many carries taking a toll on his body. Alexander will be 30 by the end of this month, and RBs who were once studs and succumbed to injury do not often bounce back as we’d like them to.

Alexander has also seen his reception and receiving yard totals drop for five consecutive seasons to the point where he basically gets no fantasy points in that area anymore. On top of everything, no one is quite certain whether Alexander’s foot is really healthy after last year. So what do you get when you add it all up? You get a player who has to see everything fall in place to be worth a top 6 selection. If he gets 15-20 TDs again, the lack of receiving stats and the lower rushing yards totals won’t matter too much, but that’s putting a lot of eggs in one unpredictable TDs basket. What we have here is a glorified version of Marion Barber. And someone who should not be taken in the top half of the first round.

Willis McGahee, BAL
ADP: 2.03
I just don’t understand why people continue to pretend like this is the McGahee of old, the stud from college before he completely blew out his knee. It’s not that same Willis and it never will be again. The one that exists now is nothing more than an incredibly average starting NFL RB… and calling him average might be doing a favor. He has never had a YPC over 4.0 over a whole season, and his career YPC is a gross 3.9. He has 503 receiving yards in his entire NFL career with no TDs there. He actually doesn’t do much for TDs in general, just 11 total the last two years. But the move to a better offense in Baltimore should help, right? Um… when did we decide Baltimore was a good offense? The team averaged a paltry 3.44 YPC last year, good for second to last in the entire league (worse than the Bills). Jamal Lewis had a 3.5 YPC the last two seasons with 13 TDs and wasn’t much more than a very average RB2. Sounds like McGahee to me – a very average RB2. Certainly not someone you should waste a top 15 pick on. Let someone else buy into the ludicrous hype and be disappointed yet again.

Brandon Jacobs, NYG
ADP: 3.05
The math here is simple for many people. Jacobs’ TDs plus retired Barber’s yardage equals star fantasy RB. But is it that easy? Not quite. Tiki Barber was all-everything on this offense the last few years, a stunning run before prematurely ending what should definitely be a Hall of Fame career. He moved the team up and down the field. He opened up the passing game. He was the one who put Brandon Jacobs in position to score, and he was the one who the defenses were forced to respect, leaving bigger holes for Jacobs to run through. He was a top 3 MVP candidate each of the last few years in my opinion. The Giants are going to struggle mightily without Tiki. Brandon Jacobs is a nice big back but Tiki Barber he is not. It doesn’t look like he will get the workhorse load, and he’s not much of a receiver, so the yardage may be tough to come by. Sure he is going to be the redzone guy, but how often will the Giants get there? Looks like a team with a lot of red flags to me. I don’t want to rely on a part time RB from an average team as my RB2 in the third round. No thanks.

Marshawn Lynch, BUF
ADP: 4.03
This one is an easy bust pick for me. Let’s see… we didn’t like Willis McGahee for the Bills the last few seasons with a terrible YPC and a lack of TD opportunities. Now replace him with a less talented RB and why should we expect anything better? Add to it bruiser Anthony Thomas and the fact that coach Dick Jauron has already come right out publicly and declared a full running back by committee for the team this season. Combine everything and you get a RB who is not going to get as many opportunities to make a play as you would hope and a guy who is going to struggle to score TDs and produce many yards in a very poor offense. I understand the rookie hype but you are going to be very disappointed if you think this is the rookie to explode this season.

Kevin Jones, DET
ADP: 7.12
Look it would be a different story if Kevin Jones was healthy. He was actually a very underrated fantasy back last season in Mike Martz’s system, with particularly high totals in the receiving categories. But all of that was before Jones suffered the devastating Lisfranc injury that put him on the DL last year and, frankly, put his career in jeopardy. For such a tiny bone in your foot, the Lisfranc injury sure has some devastating lasting effects. It looks like Jones will miss all of the preseason and may start the season on the PUP list, meaning he will be out at least 6 games. If he ever is healthy enough to play, he will now share the backfield with new RBs Tatum Bell and TJ Duckett – on the team that runs the ball less than any other in the league. To me, Kevin Jones is undraftable at this point in a redraft league. And yet he continues to go in the top 7 rounds in most drafts, being drafted as a RB3 for some poor team out there. Folks are passing on a very good TE, a quality WR3, or a very solid starting QB to get a guy who probably won’t even play this season at the end of the 7^th… just don’t let yourself be in that ridiculous group of owners.

Kenny Irons, CIN
ADP: 13.09
Okay, sorry… bad joke…

That’s it for RBs. Be careful up top… it’s dangerous in those first couple rounds. Choose wisely, and avoid some of those nasty sand traps and water hazards…