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ADP? Get The Players You Like, You Should.
Posted 08-18-2008 at 10:21 AM by Coachnorm
ADP? Get The Players You Like, You Should.
I have noticed that a lot of people have become obsessed with the idea of getting the best possible value for each one of their picks. This is a admirable goal but like any practice if done to the extreme it can really screw up your draft. Owners are drafting based entirely on the basis of their cheetsheet and a players Average Draft Position.
As owners we don’t want to appear foolish to our fellow drafters and so we are picking our players based entirely on what other owners are going to think of our picks. Again, we must feel the draft. Listen to our gut, we must.
Using ADP and Mocks are useful tools and I expressed that in another article but don’t become enslaved to an idea and let it drive your draft. If you don’t think outside the box some what you will hamstring your draft and you might as well let the computer pick your team. You want to get a good value but you don’t want players ADP’s picking your team for you.
We have had a good thread about Calvin Johnson going and when to grab him. The universal response has been grab him when you have to in order to get him. This is the mode you have to be in. Feel the draft, watch the players going before your pick and think of the players that will likely be gone for your next pick. The second part of this is the most important part of this equation. Anticipate all the players that will be gone before you next pick before you make this pick. These are all the players you should be considering for this pick before you make it.
Too many owners are making picks based on ADP alone, don’t fall into this trap. Look at the players you think may be gone by your next pick. Ten or twelve players may be gone by your next pick maybe more if you are on the corner. All of these players are who you should be looking at. Not just the couple of players whose ADP happens to come up just at this point. Of all those players who will be gone by your next pick is there a WR or a RB that you really like? You should be considering that player rather than “the best possible value for this spot”. Getting players you think will be good, you should.
The concept of “ not reaching” for pick is overblown. ADP is a useful tool. It gives you an idea of when players should go. But you should be using it so you don’t pick a player two rounds before he should go and not to make your immediate pick.
If you are picking 4.5 and you like Lions WR Calvin Johnson a lot grab him. Don’t look at an early fifth round ADP for CJ and say it is too soon, I won’t get a good value so I will wait. Good value???? Wait ???? Guess what, by time you pick again he will be gone and some other owner will be using him to kick your butt this year. Pretty, it will not be.
If a player you really like will not be around by your next pick it is not “reaching” to grab him now. In the end it matters not what a players ADP is, what matters is how many points that player gets for your team.
I have noticed that a lot of people have become obsessed with the idea of getting the best possible value for each one of their picks. This is a admirable goal but like any practice if done to the extreme it can really screw up your draft. Owners are drafting based entirely on the basis of their cheetsheet and a players Average Draft Position.
As owners we don’t want to appear foolish to our fellow drafters and so we are picking our players based entirely on what other owners are going to think of our picks. Again, we must feel the draft. Listen to our gut, we must.
Using ADP and Mocks are useful tools and I expressed that in another article but don’t become enslaved to an idea and let it drive your draft. If you don’t think outside the box some what you will hamstring your draft and you might as well let the computer pick your team. You want to get a good value but you don’t want players ADP’s picking your team for you.
We have had a good thread about Calvin Johnson going and when to grab him. The universal response has been grab him when you have to in order to get him. This is the mode you have to be in. Feel the draft, watch the players going before your pick and think of the players that will likely be gone for your next pick. The second part of this is the most important part of this equation. Anticipate all the players that will be gone before you next pick before you make this pick. These are all the players you should be considering for this pick before you make it.
Too many owners are making picks based on ADP alone, don’t fall into this trap. Look at the players you think may be gone by your next pick. Ten or twelve players may be gone by your next pick maybe more if you are on the corner. All of these players are who you should be looking at. Not just the couple of players whose ADP happens to come up just at this point. Of all those players who will be gone by your next pick is there a WR or a RB that you really like? You should be considering that player rather than “the best possible value for this spot”. Getting players you think will be good, you should.
The concept of “ not reaching” for pick is overblown. ADP is a useful tool. It gives you an idea of when players should go. But you should be using it so you don’t pick a player two rounds before he should go and not to make your immediate pick.
If you are picking 4.5 and you like Lions WR Calvin Johnson a lot grab him. Don’t look at an early fifth round ADP for CJ and say it is too soon, I won’t get a good value so I will wait. Good value???? Wait ???? Guess what, by time you pick again he will be gone and some other owner will be using him to kick your butt this year. Pretty, it will not be.
If a player you really like will not be around by your next pick it is not “reaching” to grab him now. In the end it matters not what a players ADP is, what matters is how many points that player gets for your team.
Total Comments 8
Comments
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very well said as always coach.
i think the biggest problem is when people lock onto one particular player. if you absoultely HAVE to have calvin, then youre going to have to take him. but if youre like me, maybe you are super high on 3 of the normal 4th round WRs, and then you can maximize draft value by moving down half a round and still getting one of the 3. if you convince yourself its calvin you have to have, that wont work.Posted 08-18-2008 at 10:48 AM by Da Bomb
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great post, coach! this is so true. i believe if you really want a player, you have to go for him. of course, i have been known to do some crazy trades for value's sake LOLPosted 08-18-2008 at 10:55 AM by eaglechick - I agree with that, Da_Bomb. Locking on to one player can be almost as bad as not going for a player you like. I tend to develop likes for certain players each year. As I go down a typical cheetsheet there usually are players I lean towards towards every 3rd or 4th player. I will try and gravitate towards those players in a draft if I can but you don't get to draft every 4th player. But usually one of these players does present itself as a pick nears. Each draft presents opportunities and takes some away. But if I don't pick for a dozen more picks I will look down that sheet and pick the best player I can find that won't make it to my next pick even if he isn't "supposed" to be the best guy right at this point in the draft.Posted 08-18-2008 at 11:53 AM by Coachnorm
- I like CJ as well as anybody, I think he will make a big leap in production this year. That is the type of player you are always looking for. But sometimes the way a draft unfolds a player you really like is going to be drafted on the opposite side of the draft. It's all about playing attention. I have drafted Tim Hightower in two drafts. Each time I was drafting from the corner and had 20-30 picks before going again. Each time there was a comment to the effect they thought he would last to the next round. I just smiled and thought yeah but I have him and you won't.
Posted 08-18-2008 at 12:06 PM by Coachnorm - I just felt the need to write something about this. The definition of "reaching" seems to have changed to never draft a player before his ADP. Too many owners are focusing on what is considered the best value at each spot and maybe overlooking the big picture of the type of team they are actually putting together. Maybe the best player at this spot is this one WR but maybe your team really needs a boost at the RB spot.Posted 08-18-2008 at 12:20 PM by Coachnorm
- i have to say too that calvin johnson is (not surprisingly) moving completely out of any possible sleeper status at this point. if you have to use that 4.1 to get him, you're probably taking him as the 10th-15th WR off the board. i see virtually no chance of him finishing much higher than that in the rankings this year, so there goes the potential sleeper value you thought you had. now he has to perform up to your expectations just to be a solid pick.Posted 08-18-2008 at 02:28 PM by Da Bomb
- It is true, CJ was a great find a few weeks ago (couple of drafts ago). All you had to do is watch the draft closely and hold your breath a little and you had him. His potential upside this year made him a great value then. Now after a couple of good preseason showings the book is out on him. You have to grab him in the draft at about where his production hopefully will be now. Not a bad thing mind you. No more than grabbing TO where TO is supposed to go. But CJ is no surprise now. He will probably perform up to his value for the pick at this point. A solid grab at WR but not sleeper like anymore.Posted 08-18-2008 at 04:17 PM by Coachnorm
- The problem with ADP is it has become overused at this point, and I have no problem jumping out of the perceived value to get someone I feel will outproduce his "ADP".
What used to be a great tool for those who actually researched several drafts has now become an automated way for people to draft their teams.
I don't even enjoy mock drafts as much now because 90% of the time it is simply a bunch of people checking current ADP value and drafting accordingly.
Also, there is something that people tend to really overlook. A player with an ADP of 7.01 is being drafted in legit mock drafts anywhere from round 5 to round 9. It is up to you to decide how much you want that player. Are you willing to go a little early for him? Do you think he might slip a little?
I think Norm hit this dead on. Use ADP as a tool, don't lock in on it like it is a fantasy football bible.Posted 08-20-2008 at 07:45 AM by Mike
