The WESTern Perspective
September 9, 2008
Version 2.8

During my years of fantasy football what I’ve come to dislike about leagues and, perhaps more importantly, owners is how much stock is put into the first game of the season. The reality of it is that no one purposely sets out to draft a losing team and yet, and I am willing to bet a rather large chunk of money on this, half of the teams in every single league across the country came away from week one with their dream of going undefeated a lost memory. But really, what does this mean?

It means you have one loss. It doesn’t mean that your entire season is shot. It doesn’t mean that you have no hope of making the playoffs. It means you lost, and that’s all. The same goes for those who won their matchup this opening week, you’re now 1-0, but so what? You are not guaranteed the championship, you’re not even guaranteed next week.

What’s important to remember is that knee-jerk reactions in fantasy football can often be fatal to your season. I’ve seen more than a few threads throughout the forums asking questions if whether they should drop Bulger or Garrard as neither performed particularly well. Almost every Willie Parker owner is shopping him around, and the offers are pouring in for Michael Turner. And yet, you can base nothing off of one performance.

The truth is that Parker is not likely to rush for another 3 touchdowns next week, Michael Turner may very well not break 200 yards in a single game again for the rest of his career, and the thought that Chad Pennington and Jon Kitna are going to continue to shine brighter than Marc Bulger or David Garrard is simply outrageous.

The point that I am trying to make here is not to freak out just yet. The top ten offensive performers this week (in a standard scoring PPR league) were: Donovan McNabb; Michael Turner; Willie Parker; Eddie Royal; Drew Brees; Phillip Rivers; Reggie Bush; Hines Ward; Reggie Wayne; and Marion Barber. And yet, honestly I can only see two of them finishing in the top ten by the season’s end, Drew Brees and Reggie Wayne. This, of course, is to not take anything away from these players, or even to advise you against playing them, although I would be cautious of Eddie Royal as Brandon Marshall is returning this week (don’t forget what happened to Andre Davis when Andre Johnson returned to the Texans lineup), but to simply state that the top ten performers are going to change from week to week.

What you have to do for this next week’s game, especially if you were among the losing half last week, is really break down matchups, look at situations that are either going to work for or against the player, and forget about those damned Yahoo! stat projections.

A couple guys that I would definitely consider plugging into your lineup this week that perhaps weren’t on your starting roster for your last game are Matt Forte, Thomas Jones, L.J. Smith, and Vincent Jackson.

Now I realize that many of you may be hesitant about starting any player who happens to be on Chicago’s offensive roster, but Forte is legit. Against a tough Colts D (and yes I know that their ability to stop the run has always been a bit of a question mark), Forte managed 123 yards on 23 attempts and crossed the goal line once. This week, Forte will see the Carolina defense, the same D that was allowing almost four yards per carry last week.

Thomas Jones is an incredibly capable runner, especially when he has a QB that prevents defenses from stacking the box against him. Brett Favre proved last week that he can still indeed compete (at least against the Dolphins) which should really open things up for Jones all season long. Jones ran for over 100 yards and a touchdown last week and while he and the Jets will face New England this weekend, I expect the focus of that team to be shutting down Favre and allowing Jones all the 4 and 5 yard gains he can manage.

Provided that Donovan McNabb continues to play the way he did this past weekend, L.J. Smith should rocket towards the top of the rankings for tight ends. Though not the greatest receiving threat at that position, Smith has shown good hands where it counts the most, in the end zone, and truth be told, with Westbrook as the Eagles workhorse and a depleted receiving squad, Smith may very well be McNabb’s best option within the redzone.

A great many people were high on Vincent Jackson last year and a great many people were burned for it, myself included. However, towards the latter parts of the 2007 season, Jackson showed glimpses of the receiver that many of us hoped him to be, he continued to unmask his true abilities this past weekend as he hauled in 3 receptions for 47 yards and that all important touchdown. This week the Chargers will visit the Broncos, and I have no doubt that Jackson’s catches and value to the Bolts will continue to rise.

And as for those that weren’t fortunate enough to win your opening game this past week, look on the bright side, you are a mere game away from being a .500 team. Don’t you just love football season?