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The WESTern Perspective (Draft Special Part 2)
May 30, 2008
Version 2.2
Easily the most coveted position in fantasy football is the runningback. If you are fortunate to land the number one pick, you will not take a QB, WR, nor a TE, you’re sights are set on, in almost all cases, LT.
And why should this not be the case? LT is as close to a sure bet as you’re going to get in fantasy football, for his entire career not once has he rushed for less than 1200 yards, not once has he scored less than 10 rushing touchdowns, not once has he hauled in less than 50 receptions in a single season. Now sure, you’ll hear your basic wear and tear argument, a logical one, but do you really want to be the guy who passes on yet another year of Tomlinson’s run-game dominance?
However, this blog is not about LT but about the guys who are still on the board once he is gone, once we’re on the fourth, the fifth, the sixth pick. It is at these draft positions that you truly need the most bang for your buck, it is here where you will set the curve for your entire season.
The first back I want to discuss is a guy that was on no one’s board last season. This guy wasn’t a starter, he wasn’t even a backup, and he didn’t even receive significant playing time until the season was halfway over. Yet, Ryan Grant was still able to compile 956 yards rushing, 8 rushing TD’s, and 30 receptions. Game after game, last season, Grant displayed big play capability every time he touched the ball. Yet last season, Grant had two things going for him that he will not have this year. Firstly, Grant was an unknown, not a guy for defenses to be concerned with, or so they thought. This is no longer true. Everyone has now had a chance to study Grant and it is a guarantee that he will be something that opposing defenses keep a very close eye on. Grant’s success last season also has to be attributed to Brett Favre and the Packers’ aerial attack. With as big a threat as Favre posed, it would be a fool’s move to stack the box against the run. This year, however, one has to wonder if, with Aaron Rodgers under center, the mindset of the Packers hasn’t changed. Will they become a run first team? Will defenses be aware of this possibility? This may work, both for and against, Grant and while it is unlikely that we shall see another plethora of 30 plus yard runs, we also shouldn’t see games where Grant is receiving less than 15 touches again. Certainly it is difficult for me to fathom Grant being worthy of a first round pick, however, I do think as a late second, early third rounder, Grant would be a solid choice.
Brian Westbrook never seems to go as high as he should, good for the guy picking sixth, horrendous for the guy who landed third. Westbrook really fell into his groove during the 2006 season when he rushed for 1200 yards, seven touchdowns, and hauled in 77 receptions. Last season Westbrook only added to this with 1300 yards, seven touchdowns and 90 receptions. Really, I don’t know how to make this anymore clear, in a PPR league, BRIAN WESTBROOK IS A TOP THREE PICK, easily. Last season, in the ultra-competitive Sport’s Outlaw fantasy league, Hired Guns, Westbrook was the leading running back, knocking off LT by 10 points and 3rd place Adrian Peterson by 90. And I’ve been there, I’ve seen the faces, you’re drafting from a middle position, guys like LT, Steven Jackson, AP, they’re all gone. Addai is off the board, maybe someone reached on Tom Brady or Peyton Manning, this year maybe someone reaches on Randy Moss. You’re pick is coming up but you’re torn. Westbrook? Portis? FWP? You’re worried, even frustrated by your lack of luck to snag a higher draft position. Yet, I beg of you, pull the trigger! Not only will you have found yourself with one of the best backs in the league, but those that did pick before you will be kicking themselves all season long. BRIAN WESTBROOK IS A TOP THREE PICK!
Chester Taylor is a RB3 (RB2 if you’re really hurting) who I feel will often be overlooked. Despite playing second fiddle to Adrian Peterson, Taylor still managed 844 yards, 7 touchdowns, and 29 receptions. And while, when given the opportunity to prove himself as a feature back in 2006, he was able to rake in an impressive 1216 yards, Taylor once again finds himself as a change-of-pace runner, a role that he is more than used to, more than comfortable with. Don’t expect amazing numbers from Taylor this year either as the story in Minnesota is truly all about Peterson, yet I don’t think another 800 yard season is out of the question for this Rocket. And certainly, one might not be ill-advised to factor in the injury risk factor of Adrian Peterson, if not to back up your second year superstar then to add negotiating power against the guy who needs to.
I feel that this season Jamal Lewis, Michael Turner, Clinton Portis, Marion Barber and MJD all deserve special consideration towards the top ranks of your draft board, and, as each of these athletes are the focal points of active threads throughout the SO message boards, I invite you to join the discussions and formulate your own conclusion.
http://www.sofantasyfootball.com/nfl/f2/t17780/
http://www.sofantasyfootball.com/nfl/f2/t17700/
http://www.sofantasyfootball.com/nfl/f2/t17661/
http://www.sofantasyfootball.com/nfl/f2/t17646/
http://www.sofantasyfootball.com/nfl/f2/t17666/
Marshawn Lynch should be taken midway through the second round, no questions. With 1100 yards and 7 touchdowns in his rookie season, Lynch demonstrated that he is a force to be reckoned with and could easily give your fantasy team the boost it needs.
Perhaps one of the best sleeper picks this year will be Ronnie Brown, who, while only seeing less than half the season, still put up fantasy numbers that rivaled Willie Parker, Thomas Jones, and Brandon Jacobs. From a strictly fantasy point of view, last year’s injury to Brown may have been the best thing to happen to him since it is an almost guarantee that, for a lot of people, he will have fallen off the fantasy football map. Add on the fact that people are still going to be weary of the overall lack of ability that is the Miami Dolphins football team, and you should be able to get good points out of Brown for a cheap pick.
Guys who I am weary of would be Carnell Williams, Edgerrin James, Reggie Bush, and Fred Taylor. Williams has spent his career plagued by injuries and finally someone took advantage of that. Earnest Graham really stepped up last season and now Tampa, provided Williams stays healthy, is looking at a very solid RBBC situation. Good for the Bucs, bad for fantasy owners. James is on his way out, not only is it time that he faced that, its time that these fantasy owners who are still taking him in the second faced it. There are much better options out there, pass on James. I’ve not bought into the Reggie Bush hype and I’m not going to. In his two years of playing, he holds less yardage than what most backs are compiling within a year. Bush does, however, have great hands, 161 receptions in two years, which, in PPR leagues, does make him a decent option, but certainly not the first round that he has so often been taken in. My concern with Taylor stems from the fact that he finally did make his Pro Bowl. I think this year we will see much more of MJD and much less of Taylor, which is not to say that Taylor won’t be looking at respectable yardage, but I do feel that the Jaguars are going to start saying goodbye, so should fantasy owners.
Next week I shall put out the third installment of the WESTern Perspective’s Draft Special featuring your future receiving core. Until then, and as always, comments and feedback are not only welcomed but encouraged.
Version 2.2
Easily the most coveted position in fantasy football is the runningback. If you are fortunate to land the number one pick, you will not take a QB, WR, nor a TE, you’re sights are set on, in almost all cases, LT.
And why should this not be the case? LT is as close to a sure bet as you’re going to get in fantasy football, for his entire career not once has he rushed for less than 1200 yards, not once has he scored less than 10 rushing touchdowns, not once has he hauled in less than 50 receptions in a single season. Now sure, you’ll hear your basic wear and tear argument, a logical one, but do you really want to be the guy who passes on yet another year of Tomlinson’s run-game dominance?
However, this blog is not about LT but about the guys who are still on the board once he is gone, once we’re on the fourth, the fifth, the sixth pick. It is at these draft positions that you truly need the most bang for your buck, it is here where you will set the curve for your entire season.
The first back I want to discuss is a guy that was on no one’s board last season. This guy wasn’t a starter, he wasn’t even a backup, and he didn’t even receive significant playing time until the season was halfway over. Yet, Ryan Grant was still able to compile 956 yards rushing, 8 rushing TD’s, and 30 receptions. Game after game, last season, Grant displayed big play capability every time he touched the ball. Yet last season, Grant had two things going for him that he will not have this year. Firstly, Grant was an unknown, not a guy for defenses to be concerned with, or so they thought. This is no longer true. Everyone has now had a chance to study Grant and it is a guarantee that he will be something that opposing defenses keep a very close eye on. Grant’s success last season also has to be attributed to Brett Favre and the Packers’ aerial attack. With as big a threat as Favre posed, it would be a fool’s move to stack the box against the run. This year, however, one has to wonder if, with Aaron Rodgers under center, the mindset of the Packers hasn’t changed. Will they become a run first team? Will defenses be aware of this possibility? This may work, both for and against, Grant and while it is unlikely that we shall see another plethora of 30 plus yard runs, we also shouldn’t see games where Grant is receiving less than 15 touches again. Certainly it is difficult for me to fathom Grant being worthy of a first round pick, however, I do think as a late second, early third rounder, Grant would be a solid choice.
Brian Westbrook never seems to go as high as he should, good for the guy picking sixth, horrendous for the guy who landed third. Westbrook really fell into his groove during the 2006 season when he rushed for 1200 yards, seven touchdowns, and hauled in 77 receptions. Last season Westbrook only added to this with 1300 yards, seven touchdowns and 90 receptions. Really, I don’t know how to make this anymore clear, in a PPR league, BRIAN WESTBROOK IS A TOP THREE PICK, easily. Last season, in the ultra-competitive Sport’s Outlaw fantasy league, Hired Guns, Westbrook was the leading running back, knocking off LT by 10 points and 3rd place Adrian Peterson by 90. And I’ve been there, I’ve seen the faces, you’re drafting from a middle position, guys like LT, Steven Jackson, AP, they’re all gone. Addai is off the board, maybe someone reached on Tom Brady or Peyton Manning, this year maybe someone reaches on Randy Moss. You’re pick is coming up but you’re torn. Westbrook? Portis? FWP? You’re worried, even frustrated by your lack of luck to snag a higher draft position. Yet, I beg of you, pull the trigger! Not only will you have found yourself with one of the best backs in the league, but those that did pick before you will be kicking themselves all season long. BRIAN WESTBROOK IS A TOP THREE PICK!
Chester Taylor is a RB3 (RB2 if you’re really hurting) who I feel will often be overlooked. Despite playing second fiddle to Adrian Peterson, Taylor still managed 844 yards, 7 touchdowns, and 29 receptions. And while, when given the opportunity to prove himself as a feature back in 2006, he was able to rake in an impressive 1216 yards, Taylor once again finds himself as a change-of-pace runner, a role that he is more than used to, more than comfortable with. Don’t expect amazing numbers from Taylor this year either as the story in Minnesota is truly all about Peterson, yet I don’t think another 800 yard season is out of the question for this Rocket. And certainly, one might not be ill-advised to factor in the injury risk factor of Adrian Peterson, if not to back up your second year superstar then to add negotiating power against the guy who needs to.
I feel that this season Jamal Lewis, Michael Turner, Clinton Portis, Marion Barber and MJD all deserve special consideration towards the top ranks of your draft board, and, as each of these athletes are the focal points of active threads throughout the SO message boards, I invite you to join the discussions and formulate your own conclusion.
http://www.sofantasyfootball.com/nfl/f2/t17780/
http://www.sofantasyfootball.com/nfl/f2/t17700/
http://www.sofantasyfootball.com/nfl/f2/t17661/
http://www.sofantasyfootball.com/nfl/f2/t17646/
http://www.sofantasyfootball.com/nfl/f2/t17666/
Marshawn Lynch should be taken midway through the second round, no questions. With 1100 yards and 7 touchdowns in his rookie season, Lynch demonstrated that he is a force to be reckoned with and could easily give your fantasy team the boost it needs.
Perhaps one of the best sleeper picks this year will be Ronnie Brown, who, while only seeing less than half the season, still put up fantasy numbers that rivaled Willie Parker, Thomas Jones, and Brandon Jacobs. From a strictly fantasy point of view, last year’s injury to Brown may have been the best thing to happen to him since it is an almost guarantee that, for a lot of people, he will have fallen off the fantasy football map. Add on the fact that people are still going to be weary of the overall lack of ability that is the Miami Dolphins football team, and you should be able to get good points out of Brown for a cheap pick.
Guys who I am weary of would be Carnell Williams, Edgerrin James, Reggie Bush, and Fred Taylor. Williams has spent his career plagued by injuries and finally someone took advantage of that. Earnest Graham really stepped up last season and now Tampa, provided Williams stays healthy, is looking at a very solid RBBC situation. Good for the Bucs, bad for fantasy owners. James is on his way out, not only is it time that he faced that, its time that these fantasy owners who are still taking him in the second faced it. There are much better options out there, pass on James. I’ve not bought into the Reggie Bush hype and I’m not going to. In his two years of playing, he holds less yardage than what most backs are compiling within a year. Bush does, however, have great hands, 161 receptions in two years, which, in PPR leagues, does make him a decent option, but certainly not the first round that he has so often been taken in. My concern with Taylor stems from the fact that he finally did make his Pro Bowl. I think this year we will see much more of MJD and much less of Taylor, which is not to say that Taylor won’t be looking at respectable yardage, but I do feel that the Jaguars are going to start saying goodbye, so should fantasy owners.
Next week I shall put out the third installment of the WESTern Perspective’s Draft Special featuring your future receiving core. Until then, and as always, comments and feedback are not only welcomed but encouraged.
Total Comments 2
Comments
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Edge is hitting that scary age of 30 this year, and he has a ton of mileage on him. If you owned him last year, he got into the endzone twice for you during November and December, unless you are in a league where you play week 17, then he got you 3 scores.
He had his good weeks, followed by bad weeks, and clearly looked like a running back who was wearing down.Posted 06-02-2008 at 04:01 AM by MOJO
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Outstanding perspective on the bottom feeders, like Bush, James, and Williams. Westbrook has been the difference between a win and a loss several times for me.Posted 06-26-2008 at 02:19 PM by Hammered
