Welcome
Sports Outlaw's Scott Henkel brings you a weekly look at the fantasy football stock exchange known as Ballin' or Fallin'.
Scott evaluates quarterbacks, runningbacks, wide receivers, tight ends, and defenses from across the NFL and lets you know if the player or team is on the rise or falling. If a player or team is Ballin' their stock is on the rise. If a player or team is Fallin' they are losing stock.
Are your players on his list? Find out each week in Ballin' or Fallin'!
Ballin' or Fallin' - Week 5
Welcome to Sports Outlaw's Fantasy Football stock exchange known as Ballin' or Fallin'.
Simple concept: If a player is Ballin' he's making defenders cry and is someone whose stock is on the rise. If a player is Fallin', he's not living up to the hype.
We'll take a weekly look at the players that matter in the realm of fantasy football.
Ballin'
Quarterbacks:
Matt Schaub – Way to answer the bell. Pulling off a very solid performance against a Jags defense was the way to make owners feel better about him at a QB2.
Brett Favre– Not every quarterback sets career bests in their late 30’s. While this isn’t the norm going forward it is a sign he’s developing chemistry with his team. Solid QB1.
Jason Campbell – Beating the Boys in their own back yard is a nice way to announce an arrival. Solid QB2 and QB1 situational play.
David Garrard – This week’s performance was what owners drafted Garrard expecting: solid pace passing and the added rushing yards. Monitor closely another week to see if this is just a tease but upgrade his status to situational QB1 and solid QB2.
Brady Quinn – I’m keeping him here because Anderson stunk against the laughable Bengals. The Browns have a bye week and might get Donte Stallworth back following the break. Timing couldn’t be better for a change.
Jake Delhomme – Owners need to be careful with Delhomme. He’s a classic “hot/cold” QB1 who will tear it up one week as you saw this past weekend and break your heart the next week. Still a guy owners could look at for a weak QB1 due to reliability.
Runningbacks:
LaDainian Tomlinson – Week 4 was the Return of The King. Those that were able to wrangle him from impatient owners now have a marquee runningback for the better part of the season. Elite RB1
Larry Johnson – Who? JL emerges from the depths to run through and around a sorry Bronco rush defense. With Huard as the starter elevate LJ’s status from the bench to a solid RB2.
Stephen Jackson –Jackson is finding his old form. Another huge “buy low” opportunity. Elevate from bench to solid RB2 with upside if Bulger plays with a chip on his shoulder.
Leon Washington – Thomas Jones is doing nothing and on paper has lost his starting job to Washington. That only means Washington will get more looks outside 3rd down and in the hurry-up offense. He’s prime waiver wire bait and could play his way into a situational RB2 or flex play in point per reception (PPR) leagues.
Steve Slaton – I wanted to see how he did this week after posting solid numbers week 3. He delivered through receiving yards and his stock is rising. Solid RB2 in PPR leagues.
Wide Receivers
Greg Jennings – He’s played his way into another level. Elite WR1.
Laveranues Coles – It was only a matter of time before he and Favre got going. Coles is a monster wr when a qb looks his way and has the arm or time to get him the ball. Solid WR2 with WR1 upside.
Matt Jones – Jones has been labeled a bust but is recently making the best of an injury depleted wr corps and making a case himself to be the #1 option when Porter returns. He should be considered a WR3 with situational WR2 upside.
Dwayne Bowe – Bowe would be an elite talent IF he had talent around him. He made Champ Bailey look old on several plays. His stock is certainly rising and must be looked at as a solid WR2 with situational WR1 upside.
Steve Smith – Last week I wrote, “His stock is rising only because he’s now off his team enforced two game timeout.” After seeing him in action he’s left no room for doubt that he’s back. Solid WR1.
Justin Gage – His career has revived in Nashville. Gage has been the best and only option for Kerry Collins so far and has not disappointed weekly. Solid WR1.
Tight End:
Zach Miller – This should be amended to state “any te with talent playing the Chargers” as was pointed out to me by an esteemed colleague Sunday morning. Miller has the talent but has a quarterback who can throw a ball through masonry but doesn’t always know where to point the cannon. Miller is a fine ww pickup and could be a decent situational start
Owen Daniels – Daniels will be as good as Schaub decides to play. Lots of upside to him in keeper leagues and borderline TE1.
Defenses:
Carolina – This is a defensive team on the rise. They are currently 18th against the pass and 20th against the run. They showed the ability to shut down the run on most plays but still give up a big play a game. That is the kind of team to gamble on if in a pinch.
New York Jets – This team is one that will score points for you despite not having a very solid defense. They have racked up 13 sacks, 5 picks, scored twice, and recovered 4 fumbles. They would be a good bye week alternative if your main defense is not an option.
Fallin'
Quarterbacks:
Ryan Fitzpatrick – The Bengal hopeful are hoping for a speedy return to action for Carson Palmer if this guy is the back-up. If you started him, shame on you.
Jay Cutler – Looking past the again solid numbers, Cutler didn’t look good against a Chiefs team that was supposed to make him look like a first ballot Hall of Famer. I’m not stating he sucks in any way, shape, or form. I do see his value being slightly lower than a guy like Brees. Still an elite QB1, just not THE elite QB1.
Trent Green – Thanks for your one week of service, Trent. Here’s your clipboard. He didn’t look terrible but the Rams are Bulger’s team and he should be reinstated now that management made the change at head coach.
Aaron Rodgers – Here come the alarm sirens. Injury was the one tag Rodgers couldn’t shed as Brett Favre’s backup and now the spectre of injury is rearing it’s ugly head once more. The injury is a “sprain” for now but keep your eyes glued to the NFL News Forum for the latest on Rodger’s condition. If he should be scratched none of his replacements are worth a roster spot. Rodgers is still a solid QB1 but make sure you have a good replacement.
Runningbacks:
Chris Perry – Perry had the best chance to shine against the Browns. Even with Fitzpatrick at quarterback he should have been better making him no better than a situational flex play.
Lendale White – He’s no longer the first or second option until the Titans need him to fall forward for 2 yards. He’s not even a situational RB2 unless Johnson isn’t playing.
Michael Turner – The pattern owners are seeing is Turner is lights out against terrible teams but struggles when teams force Matt Ryan to win the game through the air and stuff the run. Despite his huge season totals he is still an average RB1 to solid situational RB1.
Selvin Young – His status continues to fall as he sees less and less opportunity to back up his goal of rushing for 2,000 yards. At this point if he rushes for 800 yards he’s overachieving. Situational RB2-3 or flex play at best.
Ryan Grant - As fast as he rose last season he is falling with equal momentum this season. The Pack are quickly becoming a pass first offense even without Rodgers behind center. Bench him until things change.
Wide Receivers:
Andre Johnson – Schaub goes for 300 yards and 3 tds and AJ accounted for 38 yards and no scores. After a solid week one start his value is tanking. He should be on your radar for a “buy low” candidate this week but should also be relegated to WR2.
Chad Ocho Cinco – He did pull in a td and had a horrible quarterback throwing him the ball but a talent like Chad should make Joe the beer truck delivery guy a decent fantasy football start behind center. He’s another guy to try an pry loose from disgruntled owners but should also be downgraded to a WR3 or flex play.
Lee Evans – The numbers at the end of the game look good. But he’s averaging one big play per game and then he disappears. He’s a situational WR2 at best.
Tight End:
Vernon Davis – Mike Martz once stated how he envisioned using Davis much more in the passing game but has yet to back up those words. Davis has talent and is healthy but isn’t getting plays. He can be dropped in most formats until proven otherwise. Backup tightends aren’t worth a roster spot.
Dante Rosario - This one week wonder will be dead weight on your roster. Dump him in favor of the best match-up weekly at TE.
Defenses:
Dallas – These guys are the best defense on paper. That talent just isn’t registering on the field and the Cowboys defense isn’t scoring more than some better options off of your waiver wire…..like Cleveland
Minnesota – This is another team that looks good on paper but isn’t playing up to that high billing. While there are better options out there I believe these guys will turn it around.
If you’ve read this far you’re looking for all the pieces of information and perspective that will push you over the top in your league. This article is only part of that total picture here at SO. To get the rest of the story you must check out Jeremy Miller’s Waiver Wire picks. If you see a familiar name from this blog that is your cue to head straight to your league waiver wire.
If there is someone we missed tell us about it in the comments section below.
Like the stock market the fantasy football value market will fluctuate so make sure you are in the know by subscribing to this blog. Thanks for stopping by and I'll see you in the forums!
Scott Henkel
"The Ram"
Simple concept: If a player is Ballin' he's making defenders cry and is someone whose stock is on the rise. If a player is Fallin', he's not living up to the hype.
We'll take a weekly look at the players that matter in the realm of fantasy football.
Ballin'
Quarterbacks:
Matt Schaub – Way to answer the bell. Pulling off a very solid performance against a Jags defense was the way to make owners feel better about him at a QB2.
Brett Favre– Not every quarterback sets career bests in their late 30’s. While this isn’t the norm going forward it is a sign he’s developing chemistry with his team. Solid QB1.
Jason Campbell – Beating the Boys in their own back yard is a nice way to announce an arrival. Solid QB2 and QB1 situational play.
David Garrard – This week’s performance was what owners drafted Garrard expecting: solid pace passing and the added rushing yards. Monitor closely another week to see if this is just a tease but upgrade his status to situational QB1 and solid QB2.
Brady Quinn – I’m keeping him here because Anderson stunk against the laughable Bengals. The Browns have a bye week and might get Donte Stallworth back following the break. Timing couldn’t be better for a change.
Jake Delhomme – Owners need to be careful with Delhomme. He’s a classic “hot/cold” QB1 who will tear it up one week as you saw this past weekend and break your heart the next week. Still a guy owners could look at for a weak QB1 due to reliability.
Runningbacks:
LaDainian Tomlinson – Week 4 was the Return of The King. Those that were able to wrangle him from impatient owners now have a marquee runningback for the better part of the season. Elite RB1
Larry Johnson – Who? JL emerges from the depths to run through and around a sorry Bronco rush defense. With Huard as the starter elevate LJ’s status from the bench to a solid RB2.
Stephen Jackson –Jackson is finding his old form. Another huge “buy low” opportunity. Elevate from bench to solid RB2 with upside if Bulger plays with a chip on his shoulder.
Leon Washington – Thomas Jones is doing nothing and on paper has lost his starting job to Washington. That only means Washington will get more looks outside 3rd down and in the hurry-up offense. He’s prime waiver wire bait and could play his way into a situational RB2 or flex play in point per reception (PPR) leagues.
Steve Slaton – I wanted to see how he did this week after posting solid numbers week 3. He delivered through receiving yards and his stock is rising. Solid RB2 in PPR leagues.
Wide Receivers
Greg Jennings – He’s played his way into another level. Elite WR1.
Laveranues Coles – It was only a matter of time before he and Favre got going. Coles is a monster wr when a qb looks his way and has the arm or time to get him the ball. Solid WR2 with WR1 upside.
Matt Jones – Jones has been labeled a bust but is recently making the best of an injury depleted wr corps and making a case himself to be the #1 option when Porter returns. He should be considered a WR3 with situational WR2 upside.
Dwayne Bowe – Bowe would be an elite talent IF he had talent around him. He made Champ Bailey look old on several plays. His stock is certainly rising and must be looked at as a solid WR2 with situational WR1 upside.
Steve Smith – Last week I wrote, “His stock is rising only because he’s now off his team enforced two game timeout.” After seeing him in action he’s left no room for doubt that he’s back. Solid WR1.
Justin Gage – His career has revived in Nashville. Gage has been the best and only option for Kerry Collins so far and has not disappointed weekly. Solid WR1.
Tight End:
Zach Miller – This should be amended to state “any te with talent playing the Chargers” as was pointed out to me by an esteemed colleague Sunday morning. Miller has the talent but has a quarterback who can throw a ball through masonry but doesn’t always know where to point the cannon. Miller is a fine ww pickup and could be a decent situational start
Owen Daniels – Daniels will be as good as Schaub decides to play. Lots of upside to him in keeper leagues and borderline TE1.
Defenses:
Carolina – This is a defensive team on the rise. They are currently 18th against the pass and 20th against the run. They showed the ability to shut down the run on most plays but still give up a big play a game. That is the kind of team to gamble on if in a pinch.
New York Jets – This team is one that will score points for you despite not having a very solid defense. They have racked up 13 sacks, 5 picks, scored twice, and recovered 4 fumbles. They would be a good bye week alternative if your main defense is not an option.
Fallin'
Quarterbacks:
Ryan Fitzpatrick – The Bengal hopeful are hoping for a speedy return to action for Carson Palmer if this guy is the back-up. If you started him, shame on you.
Jay Cutler – Looking past the again solid numbers, Cutler didn’t look good against a Chiefs team that was supposed to make him look like a first ballot Hall of Famer. I’m not stating he sucks in any way, shape, or form. I do see his value being slightly lower than a guy like Brees. Still an elite QB1, just not THE elite QB1.
Trent Green – Thanks for your one week of service, Trent. Here’s your clipboard. He didn’t look terrible but the Rams are Bulger’s team and he should be reinstated now that management made the change at head coach.
Aaron Rodgers – Here come the alarm sirens. Injury was the one tag Rodgers couldn’t shed as Brett Favre’s backup and now the spectre of injury is rearing it’s ugly head once more. The injury is a “sprain” for now but keep your eyes glued to the NFL News Forum for the latest on Rodger’s condition. If he should be scratched none of his replacements are worth a roster spot. Rodgers is still a solid QB1 but make sure you have a good replacement.
Runningbacks:
Chris Perry – Perry had the best chance to shine against the Browns. Even with Fitzpatrick at quarterback he should have been better making him no better than a situational flex play.
Lendale White – He’s no longer the first or second option until the Titans need him to fall forward for 2 yards. He’s not even a situational RB2 unless Johnson isn’t playing.
Michael Turner – The pattern owners are seeing is Turner is lights out against terrible teams but struggles when teams force Matt Ryan to win the game through the air and stuff the run. Despite his huge season totals he is still an average RB1 to solid situational RB1.
Selvin Young – His status continues to fall as he sees less and less opportunity to back up his goal of rushing for 2,000 yards. At this point if he rushes for 800 yards he’s overachieving. Situational RB2-3 or flex play at best.
Ryan Grant - As fast as he rose last season he is falling with equal momentum this season. The Pack are quickly becoming a pass first offense even without Rodgers behind center. Bench him until things change.
Wide Receivers:
Andre Johnson – Schaub goes for 300 yards and 3 tds and AJ accounted for 38 yards and no scores. After a solid week one start his value is tanking. He should be on your radar for a “buy low” candidate this week but should also be relegated to WR2.
Chad Ocho Cinco – He did pull in a td and had a horrible quarterback throwing him the ball but a talent like Chad should make Joe the beer truck delivery guy a decent fantasy football start behind center. He’s another guy to try an pry loose from disgruntled owners but should also be downgraded to a WR3 or flex play.
Lee Evans – The numbers at the end of the game look good. But he’s averaging one big play per game and then he disappears. He’s a situational WR2 at best.
Tight End:
Vernon Davis – Mike Martz once stated how he envisioned using Davis much more in the passing game but has yet to back up those words. Davis has talent and is healthy but isn’t getting plays. He can be dropped in most formats until proven otherwise. Backup tightends aren’t worth a roster spot.
Dante Rosario - This one week wonder will be dead weight on your roster. Dump him in favor of the best match-up weekly at TE.
Defenses:
Dallas – These guys are the best defense on paper. That talent just isn’t registering on the field and the Cowboys defense isn’t scoring more than some better options off of your waiver wire…..like Cleveland
Minnesota – This is another team that looks good on paper but isn’t playing up to that high billing. While there are better options out there I believe these guys will turn it around.
If you’ve read this far you’re looking for all the pieces of information and perspective that will push you over the top in your league. This article is only part of that total picture here at SO. To get the rest of the story you must check out Jeremy Miller’s Waiver Wire picks. If you see a familiar name from this blog that is your cue to head straight to your league waiver wire.
If there is someone we missed tell us about it in the comments section below.
Like the stock market the fantasy football value market will fluctuate so make sure you are in the know by subscribing to this blog. Thanks for stopping by and I'll see you in the forums!
Scott Henkel
"The Ram"
Total Comments 4
Comments
-
Late Ballin' Entry:
QB:
Joe Flacco - He took every shot the Steelers threw at him and damn near beat them at home. His passes got better throughout the game and now I understand why Ozzie "reached" for him in the first round. This guy could be the real deal. Not starter material but a must pick up in keeper or dynasty leagues.Posted 10-02-2008 at 12:14 PM by The Ram
-
ram, i heart this blog
Posted 10-02-2008 at 02:59 PM by eaglechick 
- Another late entry:
Ballin'
Marc Bulger - Imagine getting canned for a guy who hasn't been good in almost 5 years at what you do. Imagine how pissed you'd be. Now, imagine how you'd feel if your former boss got the boot and you were reinstated along side of very talented peers. You'd tear it up at the office, wouldn't you? If for nothing else but to show how much of a clown your former boss was. Don't sleep on Bulger despite his craptastic numbers. I'd start him this week.Posted 10-02-2008 at 05:20 PM by The Ram
Updated 10-06-2008 at 11:45 AM by The Ram - I'm IMPRESSED!!!!! Given your predjudice against us "old guys," you rated Brett highly. Way to go.Posted 10-02-2008 at 09:23 PM by dad_olderthandirt
