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Sports Outlaw's Scott Henkel brings you a weekly look at the fantasy football stock exchange known as Ballin' or Fallin'.

Scott evaluates quarterbacks, runningbacks, wide receivers, tight ends, and defenses from across the NFL and lets you know if the player or team is on the rise or falling. If a player or team is Ballin' their stock is on the rise. If a player or team is Fallin' they are losing stock.

Are your players on his list? Find out each week in Ballin' or Fallin'!
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Ballin' or Fallin' - Week 7

Posted 10-13-2008 at 03:32 PM by The Ram
Updated 10-14-2008 at 05:45 PM by The Ram
Welcome to Sports Outlaw's Fantasy Football stock exchange known as Ballin' or Fallin'.


Simple concept: If a player is Ballin' his stock is on the rise. If a player is Fallin', he's not living up to the hype.


We'll take a weekly look at the players that matter in the realm of fantasy football.


Ballin'

Quarterbacks:

Matt Shaub – I started writing this during the Texans game and had Shaub going into the Fallin’ category. Then the fourth quarter changed my perspective. Shaub was very shaky early but again showed true grit by leading his team to a good win against a good Dolphins team. Rushing the winning score in the waning moments took some big ones (trying….hard…to fight….Kellen Winslow…joke…must….be….strong). Situational starter.

Matt Ryan– I admit I thought this was a wasted first round pick when the Falcons made Ryan their quarterback of the future. And this week’s performance reinforced why I write about the NFL after the fact and am not in player/personnel. Ryan was a gamer who showed the ability to make all the throws and showed some of what is to come for the Falcons franchise. The rookie has game. Must own in keeper leagues and is a situational back up in redrafts.

Donovan McNabb – While not the most spectacular scores fantasy football wise McNabb is showing doubters he’s all the way back and still capable of lighting up scoreboards. Curtis is due back as well as Westbrook after the bye week which will only increase his value. Top 5 QB1.

Peyton Manning – Peyton owns Baltimore. I’m not sure why but he just seems to dominate this defense every time he plays the former home of his franchise. Locals are speculating that Manning is playing his way back in shape from now two off season knee surgeries. I’ll buy it. Upgrade Peyton to QB1 with top 5 QB1 potential for the rest of the season.

Trent Edwards – So how does a bye week raise Edwards’ stock? He’s back from a concussion and has a sweet matchup against a Chargers team that gives up big yards and big plays through the air. Expect the “Edwards Special” of 250 yards and 1-2 scores. Solid QB2 and bye week fill-in.

MONDAY NIGHT AMENDMENT

Derek Anderson – I don’t know what happened to him over the past two weeks but DA was on Monday night in a game most billed to be the Giants Defense’s night. He made good decisions with the ball on most plays and got the ball to Braylon Edwards early and often, which is always a good idea. His hold on the starting gig is tenuous at best but putting a whipping on the Champs will earn him a few more weeks. Still should be on your bench until he can put together another good game but don’t sleep on him.


Runningbacks:

Maurice Jones-Drew – MJD got plenty of touches against a developing Denver defense and was able to score well. Fred Taylor went out early after taking a wicked shot and the Mighty Midget was able to take the full load of the Jags rush attack. While I don’t believe he will be able to match this kind of performance weekly he should be elevated from either the bench or a flex option to RB2 if Taylor misses time.

Frank Gore – Gore was able to keep the Eagles from teeing off on O’Sullivan by exploiting gaping holes…at least until the fourth quarter. It seems Martz is determined to get the ball in Gore’s hands despite the matchup making Gore a weekly good start for fantasy owners. Solid RB1 with elite upside.

Marion Barber –The same reason TO is Fallin’ (check the highly skilled segue technique) is why Barber is Ballin’. Brad “Checkdown” Johnson is under center for at least a month and Checkdown will be wise to continue the trend I pointed out in Week 3 by getting Barber involved in the passing game. Felix Jones is out at least 2 weeks with a bum hammy so Barber is poised to make major noise for the Cowboys. Elite RB1.

Stephen Jackson – Jackson is playing himself back into shape and is the only offensive weapon left for the Rams. His combined yards for the last few games make him a solid play. I see only better games ahead for the first round fantasy football selection. Weak RB1 to solid RB1 in ppr leagues.

Warrick Dunn – I had flashbacks to the days when Boys 2 Men were rocking the playgrounds when I saw Dunn playing against the Panthers. Graham owners have now something to be nervous about. Not that he volunteered to play fullback, but that Dunn was able to handle a 22 carry game. Gruden will continue to muddle the backfield but Dunn could prove a serviceable flex play as long as he stays upright.



Wide Receivers:

Andre Johnson – Beyond the stats, that was a heck of a performance on Sunday. I saw one of the most athletic catches I’ve seen since the days of Swann and Stallworth when AJ worked back to the ball and snatched the ball from behind a defender, spun around, and made his way up field for additional yards. AJ is a situational stud and will be a WR1 to elite WR1 in ppr leagues with continued health and the porous Texans secondary.

Roddy White – I downgraded White on my cheatsheet during the draft due to a rookie possibly starting at QB. Well I’ve eaten my words on Ryan and will take seconds on not going after White this season. He’s racking up yards and touchdowns most weeks and if Ryan can continue to make defenses pay for shutting down the Falcons rushing attack White could have a career year. Strong WR2 with WR1 upside with matchups.

Reggie Wayne & Marvin Harrison – Peyton is playing his way back to starting fantasy football status and taking Wayne and Harrison with him. I pretty much wrote off Harrison last week but am now forced to re-evaluate his status after seeing him get deep against the Ravens. Wayne is another guy that I previously downgraded and see his stock rising. Wayne should be considered a must start WR1 and Harrision might be this week’s best sell high candidate. Should you stick it out with him he’s going to be a serviceable WR2 and strong flex play.

Steve Breaston – Breaston is proving weekly he deserves to be in the Cards offense even when Q returns to the lineup. The scary duo of Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin are now a three headed monster with Steve Breaston lining up in the slot. Secondaries can’t double everybody which will only mean better production for all three. Solid Flex play when he’s #3 on the depth chart and a solid WR2 while #2.

Devin Hester – I thought this was a publicity stunt. The Bears put the most electrifying return man since Neon Deon in as their starting wr and I thought, “Ow, brother.” Hester is showing he can be very effective weekly in the shockingly good Bears passing game. He should be picked up off waivers if possible and used as a situational start either by matchup or bye week fill in.



Tight End:

Vernon Davis – Did I say drop him like a bad habit the other week? No, no, no I meant “bench him until he is able to make his way into the offense.” I’m amazed you misread me like that. While he showed up Sunday I don’t expect him to keep doubling his season total catches from here on out. He’s a TE2 at best until he proves the ability to stay relevant.

Owen Daniels – Daniels has fantastic hands and a very good understanding on how to find a hole in coverage and present Shaub with an open target. Daniels like most TE’s are inconsistent but he’s made a case to be considered a must start TE1.

Defenses:

Tampa Bay – The Bucs have scored on defense every week this season. If you were a dope like me and tried to play the matchups you also left 20 points on your bench. Note to self; Don’t do it again and keep the Bucs in the starting position.

New Orleans – I wrote about this in the forums and the Saints did it again this week. They shut down another run first team and looked good doing it. Now add in the amount of sacks they seem to be generating all of a sudden (13) and the fact they have Reggie Bush returning punts and the Saints are a heck of a value pick at DEF.

MONDAY NIGHT AMENDMENT

Cleveland – The Browns are another good scoring team that doesn’t come with the sexy resume. Yes they can give up points. But like New Orleans they are picking the ball off, getting sacks, and when healthy have a Pro Bowl return man in Josh Cribbs. Solid bye week starting DEF

Fallin'


Quarterbacks:

Joe Flacco – The rookie is starting to show his age. While there is still room for optimism take this for what its worth; the Baltimore media is now comparing him to much maligned Kyle Boller. My former hometown’s media is biased and fickle but this is something to take note of for keeper leagues.

JaMarcus Russell – The Saints forced the game into Russell’s hands and Russell didn’t deliver. Al Davis needs to be committed and not just to excellence; Committed to an old folks home. The money he spent upgrading at WR hasn’t helped and the run game now appears to be flawed. Russell may have value in the future but the future is not now. Released.

Jake Delhomme – I warned all two of my readers that Delhomme is the classic “hot-cold” fantasy football quarterback. He does this every season. One week he’s a world beater, the next week he throws 3 picks and no scores. For that reason he’s at best a situational starter for QB1 but better suited as a QB2.

Gus Frerotte – Playing the Lions should be the universal cure to what ails you but there was something amiss in the Vikings last second win. Frerotte was sacked 5 times by the Lions. What will happen when they play a good or even decent defense? If ever Gus should have had a great game it was this weekend. Woe be to those who start him. Backup QB at best.


Runningbacks:

Ernest Graham – Graham must be here even though he showed great class and team commitment by playing fullback and leading Dunn over the century mark. But what is scary is how effective that backfield arrangement made Dunn who you all know is Gruden’s favorite. This backfield just got more muddled unless Dunn is injured. Bench.

Ryan Grant – 33 carries and he didn’t crack the century mark against one of the worst defenses in the NFL. He needs to be benched until further notice. Also keep in mind Lumpkin is on IR and Deshaun Wynn was activated from the practice squad. Wynn has shown ability in the past and could make things worse for Grant owners clinging to the last shreds of hope. Bench.

Selvin Young – Last week I wrote that Pittman is the best back the Broncos have this season. And at 33 years old he showed the kind of running Shannahan hoped to get out of Young who is a decade younger than Pittman. Now the bye week is here and the return of much hyped Ryan Torrain makes this backfield the worst in years for fantasy football owners. None are good bets for weekly touches but drop Young from your radar. Bench.

Justin Fargas – Fargas is a former 1,000 yard back in a run first offense and managed only a 3.5 ypc average. Now the Saints have been 2 for 2 in shutting down one dimensional offenses but Fargas has shown ability in the past which makes this performance disheartening. He is no better than a flex play or situational RB2 at best.

Willis McGahee – I’m not sure if he’s saving himself for the last three weeks like he did last season but Willis owners need to be nervous with the poor play of Flacco and McGahee’s inability to take a team on his shoulders. He’s no better than a situational RB3 or flex play.



Wide Receivers:

Terrel Owens – Tony Romo is out 4-5 weeks with a broken finger and Brad Johnson will be starting for the next month. TO has been lacking in touches lately and you can see the thermonuclear bomb building within him when you see him on the sidelines. Consider Brad Johnson the “Big Red Button”. TO will continue to spiral downward in value. Still a must start as he will likely assume a more possession receiver position but no longer should he be in the same league as Fitzgerald and Marshall. WR1 but no longer elite.

Randy Moss – The Panic Button has a #81 on it. Unless a change is made you should keep Moss on the bench for better choices…..like Hank Baskett or Jordy Nelson. Ow, how the mighty have fallen. Bench.

Antonio Bryant– While there was hope he’d emerge this season he’s only been able to produce one week. He’s bench material as you’ll never know when he’ll produce for you again. Bench.

The Eagles WR’s not named Curtis – They are all a mixed bag of 30 yard catches and will continue to trade good games. But when Curtis comes back I believe the Eagles will use him much like the Patriots use The Slot Machine Wes Welker. That role will make Curtis’ value much more intriguing in regular leagues and coveted in ppr leagues. While I like Baskett better than Moss going forward I wouldn’t count on any of them to be in my lineup. Bench em’ all, let God sort em’ out.



Tight End:

Todd Heap – Put a fork in Heap this season. He’s going to have to stay back to pass protect for his shell shocked rookie quarterback. Heap can now be dropped in favor of better options.

Antonio Gates - Gates is breaking the hearts of millions of fantasy football owners this season. With the amount of times Rivers went deep Sunday it would stand to reason the phenom would get a few looks. Nope. I don’t think he’s all the way back from injury and until he puts together some solid games I’m downgrading him to TE2.



Defenses:

Carolina – This was a chance the Panthers had to let loose and score big. They played against holdovers from President Clinton’s first term in Garcia at quarterback and Dunn at runningback yet allowed both to have their way on the field. The Panthers are at best a fill in DEF.

New England – There was a ton of promise for this DEF this offseason and many made the Patriots their #1 DEF. The Pats seem to be lost without Brady at the helm and that appears to be trickling to the defense. Pennington looked great against them and now Rivers lit them up deep early and often. Something isn’t right and you should look elsewhere for options at DEF.



If you’ve read this far you’re looking for all the pieces of information and perspective that will push you over the top in your league. This article is only part of that total picture here at SO. To get the rest of the story you must check out Jeremy Miller’s Waiver Wire picks. If you see a familiar name from this blog that is your cue to head straight to your league waiver wire.

If there is someone we missed tell us about it in the comments section below.
Like the stock market the fantasy football value market will fluctuate so make sure you are in the know by subscribing to this blog. Thanks for stopping by and I'll see you in the forums!

Scott Henkel
"The Ram"

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Total Comments 4

Comments

  1. Old
    The Ram's Avatar
    FALLIN'

    Calvin Johnson - Not to be outdone by the Bengals, the Lions reclaimed the throne of worst franchise in Pro Football when they both traded Roy Williams and benched Jon Kitna in favor of....some MMA heavyweight fighter according to some defensive linemen. Johnson is now in the same class as Dwayne Bowe; talented and will score well but cannot be considered elite due to lack of supporting cast. Neither quarterback option will be as good as the ancient Kitna. Tough to find a winner in this other than the Lions who now have two picks to squander in the first, third, and sixth round next draft but the biggest loser this season is Johnson. Downgrade from Elite WR1 to Solid WR1.
    permalink
    Posted 10-14-2008 at 05:17 PM by The Ram The Ram is offline
    Updated 10-14-2008 at 05:27 PM by The Ram
  2. Old
    The Ram's Avatar
    BALLIN'

    Brad Johnson and Tony Romo - Mortgaging next season to win now is desperate for the Cowboys. But when Williams understands the playbook he could have a resurgent season like Chris Chambers did last season when he was traded from the horrible Dolphins to the Chargers. Now defenses have to cover TO (elite), Witten (elite), Barber (elite), F. Jones (gamebreaker), and Roy Williams (gamebreaker who has been elite in the recent past). Johnson should be a decent bye week fill-in and Romo should rebound to be a very solid and possible top 5 QB1.

    Roy Williams - As I mentioned above I see this as an identical situation that propelled Chris Chambers from wallowing in mediocrity to a must start WR2 last season. Most held off last season with Chambers thinking he'd take time to digest the playbook. Chambers scored in his first game as a Charger. Don't make the same mistake with Williams who was the best and only weapon Detroit had for the past few years. You may be able to pry him from skittish owners and he should rebuild his fantasy football career in Big D and become a solid WR2.
    permalink
    Posted 10-14-2008 at 05:25 PM by The Ram The Ram is offline
  3. Old
    Mr. Hack's Avatar
    Very nice piece.
    permalink
    Posted 10-16-2008 at 10:51 PM by Mr. Hack Mr. Hack is offline
  4. Old
    The Ram's Avatar
    Thanks Kempton and welcome back.
    permalink
    Posted 10-17-2008 at 09:59 AM by The Ram The Ram is offline
 



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