If you need a refresher on the rules for the series, here is the original thread:
http://www.sportsoutlaw.com/forum/showthread.php?t=5078

Remember, this is based on re-draft leagues.

Today's Match-up:

Rudi Johnson - RB - Cin *vs* Cadillac Williams - RB - TB

Last Year's Stats:
Rudi Johnson - 16 g - 1458 ru yds - 12 ru TD's - 23 rec - 90 rec yds - 0 TD
Cadillac Williams - 14 g - 1178 yds - 6 TD's - 20 rec - 81 yds - 0 TD

Today's match-up places consistency vs youthful potential. For the last 2 years Rudi Johnson has been the horse of the Bengals running game. He has posted 2 straight 1450 plus seasons with 12 TD's. With star QB Carson Plamer returning from knee surgery, they may be relying on Rudi and their powerful OLine even more early in the season which could be great for Rudi's fantasy owners. On the other side of the coin is an impressive sophmore who smoked his tires to a blazing start last year in his rookie season. An injury slowed him down a bit in the middle of the season but it appeared he started to re-emerge as the season wore on. Caddy is still getting used to being "the man" after sharing time with Ronnie Brown in college. Many expect him to take his game to the next level this season and join the RB elite, and will be the attention of much fantasy hype as the summer wears on. Will he live up to the high expectations, or are you better off taking the proven workhorse?? This is the question you must answer in Today's "Close Call".

Very good matchup here. Both of these guys are more than capable of being the #1 running back on a fantasy football roster. The average difference in point totals each week will most likely be only 2-3 points, but if your luck runs like mine you have had your fair share of 140 point games only to be beaten by the highest scoring team who just happened to finish with 142 points. My point here is these decisions are very important because you literally need every point you can get.

You cant take injuries away, but in this matchup you would probably be looking at slighly better numbers for Cadillac Williams over Rudi Johnson in 2005.

One place where Carnell "Cadillac" Williams should show a significant improvement over last year is in the receiving area. Simms will get the ball to his running backs on short passes, as evident with Williams getting most of his receptions in the 2nd half of the season. Tampa Bay also made moves in the draft to strengthen the offensive line which will not only provide better running lanes for Williams, it should also go a long way toward reducing the hard hits in the backfield

You know what you are getting with Rudi Johnson. 2 straight seasons of 1450 yards and 12 rushing touchdowns proves that this guy is for real. With Chris Perry behind him, he carried the ball a little less last year than in 2004, but he still had plenty touches. I would expect the Bengals to try to lower his load just a little more this year, getting him closer to 290-300 carries for the season, but it will be hard to convince him to come off the field. Quarterback Carson Palmer will most likely miss a few games early in the season, but I dont see this really having an effect on Rudi Johnson's overall numbers

I give the edge to Carnell Williams, but not by a lot. I think we once again see 1450 yards and 12 TD's for Johnson, and with a healthy season and improved offensive line, I see closer to 1600 yards and 14 td's for Cadillac Williams

Caddlilac, cause his QB situation is more settled. Which is kind of a contridiction. Johnson figures to get more carries and more touches if Palmer isn't ready to go. Caddilac figures to get more quality opportunities because of the balance in Tampa's attack. If Carson is ready to go, you can expect Johnson to have a similar numbers as last year. Cincy faces 6 of the top 10 rushing defenses in the first 8 weeks. Tampa's path is a might easier. Facing only two of the 10 in the first half of the season. I think caddlic is ready to step up to 1400 and 10-15 TDs. Then again Johnson could have a year like his other brother Larry in K.C. Go with Caddy....no go with Rudi...no, Larry...no, Rudi...eenie meeni miney mo...

Here's my take.... I voted for Rudi Johnson, and it was a pretty easy decision for me. One of the FF lessons I have learned over the year is "You can not win your league in the first round......but, you sure can loose it in the first round." In FF you have to take risks to win, the key is knowing when to take risks, the first round is not that time. Sure, Caddy looks all shined up and ready to put up monster numbers that could easily eclipse the 1400 & 12 that you can almost roll the bank with on Rudi. But we don't have to look back too far for examples of young backs that looked like can't miss backs, sure to take it to the next level, got drafted in the first round, and led their team to failures. See 2005 first round busts Willis McGahee & Kevin Jones. Both of these backs looked sensational at the end of 04 and got hyped up by all as the next two elite backs, they lost a lot of leagues for fantasy owners last year.

So for this match-up, it has less to do with Rudi vs Caddy then it has to do with Risk vs Reward. If Caddy hits and goes for 1600 and 16, he basically produces slightly above his draft position and keeps me on track for a title, if he misses, I'm in deep trouble. The possibility of him busting is far greater then Rudi, give me the 1400 and 12 and I'll use my later picks to beat you throughout the year.

I have to agree with Miller_Time here. If I am in a position late in first round, or for that matter, mid round, I want bang for my buck. I have no confindence that Cadillac can stay healthy as an everydown back. I have no confidence yet that Simms will continue to mature. Rudi is in an offense that will help him get lots of yards. Wright isn't a great fill in, but he is experienced enought to keep passing game a threat..and allow Rudi to get the yards to move the sticks.

As miller time says this pick is a choice between risk and reward. While I think Rudi is a good back that will be fairly consistent from year to year, I think Caddy has the chance to become an elite back in this league. Caddy had 2 more 100 yards games while playing 2 less games than Rudi. The thing you need to worry about with Caddy is his youthful inconsistency. While there will be games that he leads your fantasy team to victory, there will be games that he just flat out drags your team down, UNLESS you draft smart and pick up other backs that will pick you up during those weeks. No fantasy team can really rely on just one back anymore, so you need to have a plan in place if you pick Caddy.

I picked Caddy mainly because I love players that have great upside, and that is definitely the category that I see Caddy falling into.

I too am with Miller_time and Phicinfan.

Miller_ time has made some very good points. The one that makes the most impression for me is One of the FF lessons I have learned over the year is "You can not win your league in the first round......but, you sure can loose it in the first round."
I want to take a closer look at caddy's season as most of us FFer's tend to be stat freaks and I want to look a little beyond that. Caddy had some nice stats and missed two games, right?. But let us take a little closer look.

10/02 vs Detriot 11/13 injuried, not his fault but, FF owner Douched

10/09 vs Jets missed game/injured FF owner Douched

10/16 vs Miami missed game/injured FF owner Douched

Bye week can't use him but this doesn't count as every rb has a bye week.

He is where it gets interesting, only missed two games right, 3 games worth of douches, so far. (Now I watched these next 3 games and you could see that Caddy wasn't right very easily from the begining.)

10/30 vs SF 13 carries/20 yds FF owner Douched

11/06 vs Carolina 11 carries/29yds + fumble FF owner Douched

11/13 vs Washington 10/20 + fumble FF owner Douched

Hopefully you can see my point, the other part of the story. Caddy took off again and ran great the rest of the year except that NE game. When he was healthy he was amazing, very good ypc, nice production and shows that caddy has potential upside. But last year he was behind Rudi by 280 yards and 6tds we have seen the risk what would enough of an upside? ( 500 more yards? 8 more tds?).
If my pick came and both were available it would be Rudi, money in the bank for me. But this is a close call and if I was picking in the next few picks after I would grab Caddy and do a jig.

I to went with Rudi. Just because I`m not sure how the passing game is going to fair for the Bengals and they may have to rely on the run alot more this year. I like Cadilac but I hardly ever go out on a limb for guys in there second year. But if I get him in a draft I would use him until he got hurt or stoped performing.

It sounds as though some of you have already decided Carnell Williams career after his rookie season. football players are going to get hurt, there is no avoiding that. How a player bounces back from injury is something that needs to be watched. Williams, once healthy, was once again tearing the field up, in his rookie year. Williams ran like a seasoned veteran, and will only get better.

We all know what Rudi has brought to the table for the past two years. Problem is, you cannot just assume that will continue when there is a talented young running back on the team that may be capable of making your offense more complete when he is on the field. Chris Perry was given alot of opportunities in 2005, and in those opportunities, he made the most of them. on the ground, he averaged 4.6 per carry. Perry also had 56 receptions on the year. That is double the catches over Johnson, and a better ypc average. Perry did have his knee scoped last month, but is supposed to be 100% for training camp. Good chance the youngster comes in and takes quite a few carries away from Rudi Johnson this year. Hard to keep a guy that can run the ball that well off the field, especially when he is such a capable receiver out of the backfield as well.

As far as running backs go in the NFL it's gimme youth or gimme death. Most a these cats don't make the 5 year vesting for pensions. Cincy has the toughest schedule in the league right now. They face 10 ten rushing defenses 8 of the first 10 games this year and 11 of 16 for the year. They also face the top 10 passing attacks 12 times. If they are playing from behind Johnson ain't gonna get the carries. Williams is going to get the carries. He came back very strong from an early season injury to validate the great stat to his season. Blindly putting in Johnson against the Ds he will face this year is not great planning. I think there are a lot more quality carries in the Caddie's tank than in Johnson's. But we used to have a saying on the golf course in Philly, "ya can't win without a Johnson." Guess what? I think they're wrong this time.

I voted for Rudi. He has a more stable offense, A Wright withstanding, and is always a guy that can get you 1,100 and 10. C Williams scares me a bit. After his fast start he seemed to cool down and level out.Not sure they have anyone to keep people from "keying" on him....

Here is where we disagree. Perry, while quite talented, is not going to hurt Rudi's opportunities, on the contrary he gives Rudi more by keeping key drives alive with his knack to pick up the first on 3rd down. Rudi has never been a receiving threat, so your not loosing anything there, perry is the 3rd down back, and a dangerous one at that, but his role on the team is one that does not take away from Rudi. The Bengals has always had a very active 3rd down back, nothing is changing here, just the one we have is better. Perry proved himself last year, Rudi's carries never went down. No reason to think baring injury they will this year.

A few things on this as well:

1. Your assuming the top run D's of last year will be the top run D's of this year, never happens that way/ What may look like a brutal run D schedule may be a lot softer come the season. He has also faired very well vs those same D's in the past. See Baltimore last year, top 10 in Rush D, yet Rudi torched them die 211 yds & 3 TD's in 2 games last year. I agree it is important to note the tough schedule, but to dismiss Rudi due to it is premature and underestimating our top 5 Oline.

2. Not many teams are going to run away from the Bengals, their offensive weapons will keep them in the game, and ball in Rudi's hands.

For the purposes of close calls we assume redraft league. But if we were picking for a new keeper or dynasty league it would be Caddy a coupe of notches higher.

1. True the D's fluctuate year by year, good point. Ravens Had No O and might be a much tougher nut to crack this year if the Ravens ever get around to signing McNair

2. This is a good point, can't pick at it at all, the quick strike passing game sets Rudi up for massive carries in between.