Doh!

Wow, dime a dozen? Not in truth: 4.2 and 4.5 yds per carry average and 7.1 and 6.1 yds per catch average for the 05/04 seasons respectively). Take that consistant production and project them for a full season as a starter and I'm sure you'd see more than a dime a dozen rb:

1080 rushing, 568 yds receiving

That's some good production for a starter IMO.

But that's only if he's the starter all year. There are just too many names in the Minny RB game to be sure. I just don't see the high ceiling with Taylor. He could easily hit the solid numbers you tsted, but even then he's just that solid. There's also Moore and Fason in Minny. Moore has proven to be just as successful in Minny as Taylor was in Balt, maybe more so. You brought up Taylor's 4.5 & 4.2 ypc, well over those same 2 years, Moore has 5.8 & 4.3. Taylor has also had 30 rec for 6.1 ypc & 41 rec for 7.1 ypc while in the same 2 years moore has put up 27 rec for 8.8 ypc & 37 rec for 9.2 ypc. Moore's biggest obstical has been himself and staying healthy, if he does, I think he has just as good of a shot to win this job as Taylor, and at the least will split some time with him.

Bush, your right, there are alot of reason's to be pessimistic, but the high ceiling is there. I'm not wild about him, and won't be drafting him in a redraft due to where he's going, but if it came down to one of these 2, I'm starting to lean towards Bush more and more. Bottom line is he's more talented, and both situations are njot ideal. So when the situations are equally murkey, I'll lean towards the talent.

I personally think everyone is stuck with the mentallity of RBBC in Minn. Personally I think we will see Minn. start to work away from this RB approach. Two reasons, one is that it just didnt work there. number two, it wasnt, in my opinion, a traditional rbbc set up. They didnt have RB's that played a specific role. It seemed to me that they just kept plugging in RB's in a desperate search for any production at all. I think Taylor has a good chance to get the starting position and produce. Moore may spell him from time to time but I dont think hell take that big a bite.

You say Taylor has a good chance to get the starting job, but wouldn't that mean Moore has at least a fair chance given he has posted superior numbers to taylor when given the shot? By your thinking (which may be right on, I wouldn't be shocked to see a main back in Minny) your spending a 3rd-4th rd pick on a guy with a 60-70% shot of winning the starting job, if he doesn't win the starting job, you believe it will be primarily a 1 back show, so he would be worthless from a fantasy perspective. That seems like a lot of risk to me.

at least taylor has a "chance" at the starting job. what chance does reggie bush have? any?

look, i like mewelde. ive drafted him the last few years in my leagues and had a heyday when michael bennett went down, moore came in and had a few good games, and i traded him yet again. but theres a reason i traded the guy. the negatives to moore:

1) he NEVER scores TDs. he didnt even have a single TD in his NFL career until halfway through last season. seriously. hes not awful around the goal line, but hes not good either. theres a reason minnesota tried to use a different goal line back last year.

2) hes a terrible blocker. every now and then he'll get a good block, and they'll show the replay like 4 times in a row, but all that really does is underscore the fact that he normally doesnt make that block. hes a good receiver, but brad johnson is not mobile, and moore is a liability on pass blocking.

3) hes had at least three separate chances in the last two years, due to circumstances, where he was basically handed the starting RB job and it was his to lose. and he lost it all three times.

4) hes not durable at all. he is consistently injured, or nursing some previous injury, and he got a very bad rep and was in the team's dog house most of the last two years because of how much of a pansy he was on coming back from injuries, often taking way too long.

5) hes not a workhorse type. last year, mewelde started 8 games for the vikings at RB. he had 15 or more carries in only 3 of those games. the vikings know he cant pound out 20 or 25 carries, because hes just not durable enough.

look, i love mewelde moore, honestly. i love having him on the roster because hes a good change of pace guy and a good receiver out of the backfield. hes also an excellent stand-in position for 2 or 3 games a year if the main guy gets hurt. but hes not the main guy. hes had his chances, and hes not it.

minnesota made one of the first free agency moves of anyone with chester taylor. they signed him to 4 years, 14 million dollars. they had every chance to draft a guy they reportedly loved, deangelo williams, or the hometown favorite, laurence maroney, and passed on both. thats because they already picked taylor and gave him starting RB money. chester taylor has started 5 games in the last two years. hes had 15+ carries every time. and he was top 10 in receptions in the league last year as jamal's backup with kyle boller throwing it to him.

chester taylor will be given every opportunity to take the job and run with it. his only "competition" will be mewelde moore, and that competition will likely only take place if taylor falters. and look, if youre that worried about moore, then why not just use your 10th rounder on him, same with half of the other high RBs youre drafting. you want bush's "backup" (read: starter), you have to take him in the 5th.

I will make things easy on myself and not draft either where they are being drafted. But having to pick one, I think there is alot less risk in Chester Taylor.

Response in Bold:

Good post though, learned somethings about the situation I was unaware of.

jamal lewis, the year after his ACL tear, had 1800 combined yards and 7 TDs. for the top backs out there, which deuce is when healthy, they can make a recovery. deuce, by the time the season starts, will have had almost a full year to recover. i had surgery on my ACL on march 31st. the doctors have said that by october, everything will be healed and i can do anything i want. it wont be 100% yet, but it wont be a problem of risking further injury. thats the 6 month mark. by 1 year, its probably 90-95%, and by 2 years 100% (or probably better). with a professional athlete, deuce is aleady past that 6 month mark and should just be getting stronger by the day now. he wont be a stud this year, but he wont just roll over and play dead while bush gets 25 touches a game either.

the point of my above post wasnt necessarily what chester taylor is. honestly, i havent seen enough of taylor to be sure what he is. but ive seen enough of mewelde to know what he isnt -- a full time nfl starter. hes an awesome backup RB, a good 3rd down guy, someone who can come in and be effective for a few games a year if needed.

regarding some of the point/counterpoints... its not that moore hasnt had chances to score TDs or has had bad luck, hes just not a guy who can pick up that big yard when you need it. minnesota had so many 3rd and 2s last year where we had to pass, or where we ran for -1 yard and punted. hes not that guy. he also has a very shoddy work ethic. he doesnt try hard in practice, and he doesnt work hard to get back after an injury. it was that that got him in the doghouse and lost him playing time, over and over again. that and the fact that hes not a complete back, because he cant run for much if any power, and he is a brutally bad blocker in pass situations. tice was a moron, but mewelde clearly had chances. there were times when there just werent other backs healthy and mewelde was all we had. he had his shot, and he never grabbed that job and didnt look back, like a star player would/should.

the receptions thing... sure, its close, but taylor had 1 start last year to mewelde's 8, and yet still more catches. hard to compare that. he was probably on the field half as much as mewelde all season.

bottom line with mewelde... i like him, but hes not an nfl starter. if you remember, last year in IBL i told everyone to draft mewelde. i said i would draft him and trade him for a stud WR by week 6. as a viking fan, i knew that mewelde was going to have his shot, and that he was the best RB on the roster and would look good for a game or two. i also knew that non-viking fans would jump all over him once he got that chance without foresight to the future. in week 7, i traded mewlede for torry holt and never looked back. hes not a guy i wanted to have to score me points. i waited until he looked falsely valuable, and sold while i could. this year, hes no more than that same thing. if he gets to start for a game or two, he'll perform well and make good trade bait. but hes not a long term answer. our run game this year will either be chester taylor, or it will be nothing.

Taylor has the nod at this point, 11-8. Will be interesting to see how this evolves over the summer.

I now expect an extended hold out by Bush....so it will be a no brainer come draft and playing time...sigh....

yeah, if Bush holds out, this becomes pretty easy.