Their only chance to have won that game would have been to sneak Tom Brady in under center.

Just a random post.

As heard from an NFL assistant coach: Though Moss is plenty talented, he runs just about the worst routes in the league. Once his physical skills decline and wear and tear happens, he is going to have a harder time holding on to his stats because without running good routes, it is harder to get separation when you lose a step. Good route running helps keep defenses guessing.

So there ya go.

Harrison is gonna get his. Cuz he always does.

I will enjoy revisiting this one later in the season.

yeah, i will too. randy moss has had a better season than marvin harrison ONCE.

harrison is this generation's jerry rice. he will catch 90 balls, 1100+ yards, and 10+ TDs yet again.

imo you have about a 20% chance that moss outperforms that enough to make it worth taking him over harrison. 30% chance they come out with similar numbers. 50% chance harrison stonewalls moss.

but go ahead and keep predicting harrison's demise, just like many people have the last few years in a row, just like many people did when jerry rice was playing. he'll just keep putting up stats. and you can sit and marvel along with your boys randy and reggie.

Hopefully, you are not lumping into that group by default, because that would be extremely false.

And if I end up being wrong, not big deal. You win some, you lose some. However, I would much rather post my actual thoughts out here than go along with popular opinion on everything like I see on far too many sites.

Guaranteed - If Harrisons production does drop, and Moss bounces back to another great season, the message boards will be loaded with tons of people who "knew" this was going to happen.

i dont know if you have called for harrison to drop off some in recent years, but i know ive seen it for 3 or 4 years now already. i was in a league i think 4 years ago where i had harrison and had a buddy (helping me) trying to convince me i needed to trade for wayne, because wayne was going to become the guy that year and harrison was slowing down.

i just dont know why someone wouldnt LOVE to have harrison on their team. hes scored double digit TDs for seven consecutive seasons at WR. as far as i know, only jerry rice ever did that.

My biggest issue with this debate is that Harrison is now on a team thats changing its playing philosophy. Its relying on its defense more then in the past where it was considered primarily an offensive dominant team. Harrison isnt getting any younger but hes still Harrison. My concern with Harrison isnt about Harrison or Manning , its with the teams new philosophy. My dig on Moss is his discipline and it wasnt all about him last year. When Oakland started thier slide the whole team gave up. No one on that team dug deep and became the go to man including Moss. They just coasted to the end of a losing season. With Aaron Brooks at the helm (as I mentioned before) if this season they start to stumble, Brooks will become more concerned with pointing fingers then righting the boat which will cause Moss to suffer as well. Oh yeah and Bumo!!!

My edge goes to harrison by the slimmest margins. Marvin is definatly the safer option, ceiling may not be as high at his age, but Manning still looks his way forst in the red zone, and that is money. Moss is a freak, but man has he been frustrating to won the last 2 seasons. If he gets back on track, watch out, but if injuries and a bad attitude with bad work ethic continues to linger, his down side is far worse then Marvins. Due to this, Marvin gets the nod.

Check out this blog post from pro-football-reference.com

Pro-football-reference.com blog » Wide receivers, Quarterbacks, and consistency

It has some interesting math for what happens when receivers:

1. Change teams.
2. Change QBs but stay on the same team.
3. Keep the same team and QB.

Basically, the math seems to suggest that a WRs stats are more consistent if they stay on the same team with the same QB.

So, maybe Moss has a break out season, or maybe the worst ever. It's an interesting post even if it doesn't really answer the Close Call.

normal scoring system
1999 - moss 207, harrison 238
2000 - moss 233, harrison 225
2001 - moss 183, harrison 242
2002 - moss 177, harrison 238
2003 - moss 265, harrison 187
2004 - moss 155, harrison 201
2005 - moss 149, harrison 175
AVG - moss 196, harrison 215
AVG without 2003 - moss 184, harrison 220

PPR
1999 - moss 287, harrison 353
2000 - moss 310, harrison 327
2001 - moss 265, harrison 351
2002 - moss 283, harrison 381
2003 - moss 376, harrison 281
2004 - moss 204, harrison 287
2005 - moss 209, harrison 257
AVG - moss 276, harrison 320
AVG without 2003 - moss 260, harrison 326

verdict?

in 2003, moss was miles better than harrison. upon closer evaluation, you see that harrison had his worst year of the last seven seasons that year, with his lowest TD output (10). you also see that this is the year of the famous "randy ratio" when 40% of all passes thrown in the minnesota offense went randy's way. something that never happened or will happen again. it was a huge statistical outlier in moss's seasons.

in 2000, moss and harrison were very even. moss beat harrison by 0.5 ppg in a normal league, but harrison beat him by 1.0 ppg in PPR. call that one a draw.

in the other five seasons, harrison beat moss by anywhere from 1-4 ppg in a normal scoring league, and in PPR leagues, harrison beat moss by anywhere from 3-6 ppg. he wasnt just better, he was clearly better.

the averages over 7 years show that harrison averaged more than 1 ppg better under normal scoring leagues, and over 2 ppg better under PPR. and that is including moss's huge anomalous randy ratio season. if you take that out and look at just the other seasons, harrison beats moss by an average of 2+ ppg in normal scoring, or by over 4 ppg in PPR.

lets put it another way. suppose you want to consider statistically what your odds are of either of them having a better year, when youre choosing between the two.

odds that the two are just about equal, rendering the question moot - 14%
odds that moss is significantly better - 14%
odds that harrison is significantly better - 72%

so if you want to take moss for his "upside", statistically you have a 14% that your gamble will pay off and give you top stud WR. you also have a 28% chance that you'll have a WR at least as good as harrison.

if you prefer to play it safe and take the guy who has been consistently better in harrison, you have a 72% chance that harrison ends up with better numbers this season, and an amazing 86% chance that your boy will be at least as good as moss, at worst.

and all of those statistics ignore the little details too, like...
1) moss has brooks, harrison has manning
2) harrison has either been healthy or played through pain most of his career. moss has looked very hurt the last two seasons and often doesnt play through pain
3) age - it cannot be ignored. harrison is 33, moss is 29. however harrison has only played 2 more NFL seasons than moss, and moss has had one more big NFL year. statistically, by yardage and TDs, harrison has about one "season" of yardage and TDs more than moss. in addition...
4) moss has slowed down significantly the last two years, while harrison has shown absolutely no signs of slowing down
5) consistency - harrison's seven seasons have consistently been within +/- 2 ppg of his average. moss is within that range only four of seven years. one year was his career year, significantly above that average, and the other two years are the last two years, significantly below the average.

so the question comes down to a simple statistical problem. do you think the situation is just right this season to meet that 14% chance and win the lotto with moss? or are you going to take the ho-hum top 5 WR in harrison with an 86% chance to pay out?

Bomb, while I'm with ya on Harrison over Moss here, I do disagree with number 4 above. While Harrison's numbers as a whole do not show abvious signs of slowing down, a closer look at a part of his numbers do show a couple warning signs. They should at least be seen as red flags. I don't think they will necessarily materialize, but they do exist:
1) receptions decreased from 94 in 03' to 86 in 04' - 8.6% decrease. Decreased again in 05' to 82 - 4.7% (12.8% 2 year decrease). If he continues to decrease as he has the last 2 years, you will see his receptions dip under 80 this year which is a clear sign of slowing down for a guy who regularly posted 100+ receptions from 99'-02'.
2) Yards are another area that I would say it's obvious he's not what he once was. From 99'-02, Marvin averaged 1580 yds per season. The last 3 years, 03'-05' those numbers have dipped to an average of 1,177! In fact, he has not eclipsed 1,300 yards in those 3 years. Now he has been fairly consistent over the last 3 years, but that consitency is at 75% of what his normal yardage production 'used' to be. It's now 1200 yds that you can expect, not 1500. And the question remains, will he suddenly drop again from this area like he did the last 3 years? Or can he sustain this new consistent area?

Those are two areas that show significant decline over what Marvin once brought you. What has help to hide these declines are the fact that Marvin's TD's have not dropped off. His 99'-02' average per season for TD's was 13, compared to 12.3 for 03'-05'! He has been able to produce the same amount of TD's, with significantly less receptions and yards. If he can continue to produce these TD's, the consistency will remain, but if this starts to dip, and you start to see 8-9 TD's, instead of 12-13 TD's, well you have much less desirable WR at the cost of a late 2nd rd pick b/c the yards and receptions are simply not elite anymore.

Due to the Manning factor, I see Marvin continuing his streak of 7 stright double didgit seasons with 10 or more TD's. But the fact is, he has to to earn his draft slot now. Just something else to consider when thinking about Marvin Harrison this season.

miller, i can agree with those points. there are signs of the slightest of declines, due to age, but let me respond.

first, let me be clear that im not trying to argue harrison 06 = harrison 01. if i was, then i'd be saying harrison is the clear #1 WR, and i am not. what i am trying to argue is that harrison of any year is a better, safer bet than moss of any year.

therefore, that the yardage is not 1500+ anymore is not a huge deal to me. hes still in the 11-1200 range every single year, and hes still scoring 10-15 TDs every single year. if you look at the top WRs, most of the stud TD guys like harrison, moss, owens, etc arent the guys posting huge yardage numbers. and most of the guys with the larger # of yards like holt, boldin, CJ etc usually get a few less TDs. if there was any WR in his prime that would promise to get high TDs AND good yardage, they'd be very high on my list -- see CJ and Fitz in my top 4.

last, regarding harrison's receptions. i responded to this above but i think no one seemed to notice it. let me post it here again.

so the receptions thing isnt as big a deal as people make it. is he going to catch a ton of balls and lead the league again? probably not. but is he a good bet to set a pace for 90+? i would say so. hes been on such a pace (or better) for seven straight years.

also note that two of harrison's best three years (01 and 02) were years when edge was hurt, the running game wasnt top notch, and the colts had to pass more. expect such a trend again this season.

Moss himself is getting a touch older. He can't run routes like many others can, as he uses his physicality to develop leverage and make plays. I'm not saying he'll never match his previous career numbers ever again, but the older he gets the less likely he'll be able to beat people out for the ball. It may start this season, it may take another handful of seasons. I was sorta big on him earlier in the offseason, but now that I think about it, his lack of route running will come back to haunt him sooner than later.

Sure glad some of you are not leading our Country. If we all lived in the past we would still be riding on horse and buggy.

Seriously though, some good research. I just to buy into it having and effect on what will happen in 2006. From what I see on the Colts last season, it seemed to me that the torch was in the process of being passed to Reggie Wayne, and that it the thought I will be carrying into this season.

I am also of the belief that Moss will be bouncing back this year. Putting this though with the above thoughts is going to give me a solid feeling that Moss will be better this year.

This was an excellet selection. As I find these much, much closer than most here.

First, the key to Moss is not Moss. It is the coach, OC and more importantly the Qb. Now, I would never want to argue that Brooks is a better Qb than Kerry Collins. I do think though that his arm, and more importantly his legs and ability to dodge traffic ARE better. So they will be able to send the deep reciever, as Brooks will buy time. I also think the groin injury Moss had last year was more of an effect than most suspect.

As for Marvin, I agree with most here that Indy will be passing happy again, now that Edge is gone. It will take time to develop faith in Addai and Rhodes to carry the offense. So I see big years for Manning and the reciever crew. I am not ready to pass the torch to Wayne as some...so I expect high Tds for Marvin again this year.

To me the kicker is there is NO competition at wr for Oakland. You Porter fans can cry till you drop...he was a waste of money to re-sign. With Wayne, Marvin, and everyone else...the catches will be more spread around.

So believe it or not...I gotta go with Moss here.