If you need a refresher on the rules for the series, here is the original thread:
http://www.sportsoutlaw.com/forum/showthread.php?t=5078

Remember, this is based on re-draft leagues.

Today's Match-up:

Larry Fitzgerald - WR - Ari *vs* Torry Holt - WR - St. L

Last Year's Stats:
Fitzgerald - 16 gms - 103 rec - 1409 yds - 10 TD's
Holt - 14 gms - 102 rec - 1331 yds - 9 TD's

For today's match-up we are going with one of the brightest young stars of the NFL in Larry Fitzgerald. In only his second year he blew up on DB's all year on his way to over 100 receptions and double didgit TD's!! At only 23 years old, the sky is the limit for this Elite WR. However, his competiton is a mainstay over the last couple years when you start talking about Elite WR's. Torry "Big Game" Holt is just that, for the Rams and fantasy owners alike. In only 14 games last year he still managed to topple the 100 rec mark. His consistency is at the top of the league for WR's. The big question here is will a shift to a more run focused offense take away from his numbers or just make him that much more dominant? And what about Fitzgerald, will a healthy Boldin all year and Edge detract for his amazing numbers? These are the questions you will have to answer in today's "Close Call"

Interesting matchup

Entering the 2005 season, Fitzgerald was a hard sell around here when talking about him being an elite receiver. Boldin was back, and Fitzgerald was simply going to be the #2 guy in Arizona. Well, evidently, Fitzgerald didn't want any part of that #2 role, finishing with one more catch, 7 more yards, and 3 more touchdowns than Boldin.

Enter 2006, here we are comparing him with Torry "Big Game" Holt, and for good reason.

Both of these guys are facing a change in offense this season.

For Holt, he will be seeing new coaching, which will be bringing in more emphasis on the running game. Holt also has some young receivers who will be getting a little more attention this season as they have matured into better receivers.
For Fitzgerald, while the coaching remains the same, he now has a new teammate in Edgerrin James, who will make sure that there in an increased emphasis on the run in Arizona. While I think Fitzgerald is the #1 in Arizona, and his skills will only be better in year three, you have to count for the plays that Edge will demand.

I can only assume that Holt will play all 16 games this year, with last year being the only time he has missed games due to injury. That said, I look for about the same final production as he seen in 2005, with may be an additional touchdown or two.
Holt - 95-100 receptions, 1350-1400 yards, 10 touchdowns

In Fitzgerald's case, I think he begins to seperate himself from Boldin, as the clear #1 go to receiver, and even with the addition of Edgerrin James, I see in increase in overall production for Fitzgerald. I love to watch this guy play, and in his third season, he will be getting alot of consideration as the best receiver in the National Football League, and his name will have to come up in 2006 MVP talk.
Fitzgerald - 110 receptions, 1500+ yards, 14+ Touchdowns

My vote clearly goes to Larry Fitzgerald. The presense of a running game will only make him that much more open in the passing game, and there is nothing that comes his way that he can't catch.

I could fully agree with this....except for one thing. Warner. If I knew Warner was going to stay healthy, I would just vote Fitz and say you are right. However, I don't think he will, and quite frankly if Leinart of Ferotte get in..its drops their value.
Now Holt is in a new situation, but I see him taking the Randy Moss roll and look what the passing game did in Miami as well. I think I will stick with Holt right now....until Leinart has a year under his belt.

Couple of things before I get into the actual question. Phicin, I think you are getting a little mixed up. Frerotte now backs up Bulger, not Warner. Warner has Navarre and Leinart behind him. So unless Leinart is truly ready now, if he gets hurt that will hurt Fitzgerald.

The other thing is why is everyone so down on Frerotte? Granted he is not a pro bowl QB, but he was very serviceable for Miami last year, especially when you consider he only had McMichael and Chambers to throw to. He had almost 3000 yards and had 18 touchdowns with a very week passing game. I think he is a very good backup to have on your team, and if Bulger is not ready or gets hurt again, I see Frerotte as a better backup than a lot of teams have, and it should not hurt Holt's number dramatically.

As much as I love Fitz, my vote has to go to Torry Holt given that it is a re-draft decision. Holt is simply money!! Imagine the numbers if he played all 16 games last year??!! Fitz is the bomb, and if it was a dynasty, the easy pick, but Edge, Warner's health issues, and a healthy Boldin, there is only so many balls to go around. I'll give a more detailed explanation later today.

Jeez...I must have been

As to answer your question.....
First if it is Nevarre and Leinart, I am still concerned for Fitz and boldin. In fact greater concern.

As for Ferotte...here is my issue.
He is not set up for a deep ball type QB. He also is not great at accuracy, and hitting key targets. So in St.Louis...I am concerned there. yes, he is a capable backup. But if he is going to be playing alot, he is easy to look very, very bad. However, I think he will play less in St. Louis than in Arizona...where I don't see Warner lasting more than 3-4 games.

You must not have been watching the same football I was. Dude has a cannon when he decides to use it.

EDIT: My vote goes to Fitz. The Aints are called teh Aints for a reason.

Maybe....but while he was in Cincinnati, he hit more DBs than wrs .....and had NO accuracy on deep balls.

Oh, what exactly does the saints have to do with this?

Lets start another trhread for frerrote talk.

Looking for some more opinions on Larry Fitzgerald vs. Torry Holt. Who is your pick if they are available and why?

D'oh, I was thinking this was another reciever. Oops, should have read the options better.

This is a good one. After the crap I gave MT about the earlier (mis)match, this one shines even though a lot of FF ranking sites have Fitzgerald ranked 10-15 places higher than Holt. He's really gonna make me think about this. Could go ultimate homer and pick the Pitt guy, Fitzgerald, or the pro's pro in Holt playing pitch and catch with another Pittsburgh guy, Central Catholic's, Marc Bulger. This isn't the first year with their projected stating QBs so you can't take the easy way out. While St. Louis has a new coaching staff, I think that may actually be an advantage for Holt. As OC in Miami, Linehan ran a balanced offense. In Minnesota he had one of the highest flying offenses ever. They hired Jim Haslett as DC and he has a pretty good record of coming in and improving that side of the ball right out of the gate. The hiring of Haslett is going to let Linehan go wide open with the offense if he wants too. He may also fall victim to not wanting to put too much pressure on that D early and run a balance attack costing Holt some touches. I not concerned with that too much because 50% of Holts catches went for first downs. He's gonna be their go to guy when they need to move the chains. Holt missed 2 games with a knee injury last year but the eight year, 3 time Pro Bowl receiver still had 102 catches for 1331 yards and nine TDs. Numbers that are very similar to Fitzgeralds 103 for 1409 and 10 TDs. They're per catch averages are close at 13.7 to 13 in favor of Fitzgerald. The one problem I see with Holt was his productivity against top 15 defenses was suspect. In 4 games post injury, vs. top 15s, his output dropped markedly. Against Sea., Philly, Wash. and Dallas he only caught 17 balls for a measly 10 yards a catch and 2 TDs. He did have 4 double digit catch games after the knee injury but again his per catch average was off almost 3 yards form earlier in the year and almost 5 off of his career averages. A trend? Bulger missing 8 games didn't help but Jamie Martin had a decent passer rating of 86 and a completion percentage of 72. The telling stat, in all this, is the 75 passing yards per game average from Martin. His 7.7 per attempt average was in line with Bulger's 8.0. Bulger's 154 passings yards per game means the Rams threw the ball half as much in the second half of the year but when they did it was to Holt. With Bulger healthy, expect Holt to be around the 90 catch mark and 10-15 tds.

Great insight Dave, that is what these threads are all about....I do think your underestimating where these guys will be drafted though.....I do ADP research on every match-up and in a 12 team league, Fitz's ADP is 2.7 while Holt's is 2.8......So if you think your getting Holt in the 4th, you just simple won't be getting Holt. You also may need to take Fitz a little higher then late 2nd, b/c if you wait till then, more times then not, he won't be there. For info purposes, Boldin is at 3.1 ADP.

OK to expand on this a little. Holt is money every year and as far as WR's go, he has been one of the most consistent WR's week in and week out the last 3 years. The offense may be changing a bit, but Holt's role as the go to guy will not. He will sontinue to put up 100 rec, 1400 yds and 12 TD's easy, with the possibility of putting up even greater numbers. Fitz is a STUD, period, but he's not the only game in town in Arizona. Boldin will take some numbers away and they simply will not be chucking the ball around as much with Edge there. With a 1500 yd back, and another WR capable of a 100 rec's I just don't see Fitz having as many receptions as last year, I think 85 sound more appropriate. That will cause his yds to dip some to about 1200-1300. I think he will continue to be a huge redzone guy and should get 10-12 TD's. I also expect him to be much more inconsistent then Holt will be. If they are capable of producing similar numbers at year end, give me the consistent production over the boom or bust.

However, in a dynasty setting, there may not be a better WR to have then Fitz.

Dave that was an thoughtfully amazing analysis, nice job right up until the end.

While I would pick Fitz before Holt right now, there is no way I would pick Boldin before Holt. Too much injury history there.

Otherwise great job. Tell me, why arent you writings artricles for us?