2007 Fantasy Football Player Projections - LaDainian Tomlinson


Player: LaDainian Tomlinson
Position: Running Back
Team: San Diego Chargers
NFL Season: 7th

2006 Stats
Rushing Attempts: 348
Rushing Yards: 1815
Rushing Touchdowns: 28
Receptions: 56
Receiving Yards: 508
Receiving Touchdowns: 3
Passing Touchdowns: 2

3 Year Average
Rushing Attempts: 342
Rushing Yards: 1537
Rushing Touchdowns: 21
Receptions: 53
Receiving Yards: 440
Receiving Touchdowns: 2
Passing Touchdowns: 1.6

LaDainian Tomlinson is entering his 7th NFL season, and is currently on pace to destroy several NFL rushing. Tomlinson is still relatively young by NFL standards, turning 28 this off-season. There is the concern of an extremely heavy workload throughout the course of his first 6 years in the NFL, as Tomlinson has averaged 408 touches per season.

What is in store for Tomlinson in 2007? Give us your analyisis of LaDainian Tomlinson for 2007, including projected statistics. Above are the stats for 2006 as well as a 3 year average.

I expect LT to be a stud again this year and next year and...

Perhaps a bit less then last year, but around his 3 year average sounds right. A more experience Rivers can only help LT overall, but you might see a few less dump-off security blanket passes to him, so his reception might fall.

2007 Prediction
Rushing Yards: 1600
Rushing Touchdowns: 21
Receptions: 40
Receiving Yards: 330
Receiving Touchdowns: 2
Passing Touchdowns: 1

My prediction would be pretty close to Dominon's, but with a few more receptions (this guy had 100 in a season not so long ago and they still don't have any decent WR) and fewer rushing TD's.

1600 yds
Rush TD: 17
Rec: 65
Rec Yds: 520
Rec TD: 3
Pass TD: 2

theres no real question about the situation or the talent level here, but how do we factor in the workload that LT2 is garnering? hes got to fit that bill that NAn showed for RBs who are in serious trouble the next season. i know even with like a 12 game season, hes top 5 at RB, but it has to be taken into consideration. recently every time a RB has had a huge monster season and broke the record, theres pretty much always a dropoff the next year. look no further than alexander last year.

Is there another RB in the league at his level with his off-field and between season workouts? I don't think so. The guy never stops bettering himself and it is coming up Aces for him.

And lets look no further then the cover of a certain game Alexander was on to help explain his fall.

This is exactly the thing I am looking at with Tomlinson, and the reason I mentioned that he has averaged over 400 touches per season his entire NFL career. At some point, that has to have an effect on you, and for running backs, it is usually rather sudden and unexpected.

Could this be the year, or can he get it done yet again? The think with Tomlinson that I have always pointed out though, is while the carries are high, this guy has a strange ability avoid alot of hits.

This is a terribly unscientific thing to say, but It hink there is a big difference between touches and carries. Tomlinson hasn't been terribly worked in terms of carries, but he has caught alot of passes. I think the beating the body takes on pass catching is less, so I'm thinking the cumulative effect of all those touches won't be as bad as, say, Larry Johnson's 400+ carries last year.

Although we have to remember that Tomlinson does get dinged up at the end of every season and usually is a game time decision at least once or twice (he almost cost me that championship win over Da Bomb last year).

Read the study published on this site last year. The numbers in it are pretty clear, and stunning.

There is real reason for concern here......however, there are certain players that are simply exceptions to the rule, and I think LT without a soubt is one of those exceptions. Expect another tremendous year from him, not record breaking like last year, but 1600 and 20+ TD's on the ground and 400 & 2 in the air is realistic.

Assuming that one reception equals half a carry, then Tomlinson "only" had 376 carries, which is still less than almost all of the backs who broke down the season after their heavy work load. I agree, as well, that he is an exception to the rule too, kind of in a Walter Payton way, because of how hard he works and what good shape he keeps himself in.

I'd be more worried about LJ breaking down this year than Tomlinson.

Rushing
Att: 341
Yards: 1,529
Avg: 4.48
TD: 16
1st: 76

Receiving
Rec: 66
Yards: 483
Avg: 7.31
TD: 2
1st: 18

Passing
Att: 2
Comp: 1
Pct: 50%
Yards: 31
YPA: 15.5
TD: 1
Int: 0

wow, YPA, and all. Fancy Schmancy

Yeah, but stuff like that isn't hard with NFL.com having all the stats. Btw, the passing stats are average out over 4 years instead of six, since he didn't have any pass plays his first two years.