Looking ahead to 2008 redrafts....

Fumbleweed

Hey guys...I posted this over at FFToday....just thought I'd get some feedback from you guys as well. A lot of guys I really respect post here...anyway, any thoughts would be great.

"As of today (1/30), here's how I see value in a redraft for four rounds. 12-team, non-PPR. Assumes few major changes for these players between now and summer (which is unrealistic, but not presumptious). Always enjoy the discussion that goes along with this...

Round One:

1. LaDainian Tomlinson
2. Brian Westbrook
3. Steven Jackson
4. Adrian Peterson
5. Joseph Addai
6. Tom Brady
7. Marion Barber III
8. Frank Gore
9. Larry Johnson
10. Randy Moss
11. Clinton Portis
12. Willie Parker

Round Two:

13. Marshawn Lynch
14. Willis McGahee
15. Ryan Grant
16. Reggie Wayne
17. Terrell Owens
18. Peyton Manning
19. Ronnie Brown
20. Braylon Edwards
21. Chad Johnson
22. Brandon Jacobs
23. Laurence Maroney
24. Jamal Lewis

Round Three:

25. Larry Fitzgerald
26. Tony Romo
27. Steve Smith
28. Maurice Jones-Drew
29. Torry Holt
30. Reggie Bush
31. T.J. Houshmandzadeh
32. Andre Johnson
33. Drew Brees
34. Edgerrin James
35. Carson Palmer
36. Antonio Gates

Round Four:

37. Marques Colston
38. Earnest Graham
39. Brandon Marshall
40. Justin Fargas
41. LenDale White
42. Jason Witten
43. Plaxico Burress
44. Greg Jennings
45. Marvin Harrison
46. Kellen Winslow, Jr.
47. Thomas Jones
48. Anquan Boldin

This does not include rookies, so McFadden will probably plug in somewhere eventually. I may update this after the free agency stuff slows down in mid-March and then one last time after the draft. Again, just my personal take on value...feedback given on this helps me to sharpen my assessments and re-think some things, which is why it's fun to throw it out there."

Coachnorm

Hey Fumbleweed, great to hear from you. Right off the bat I can see we agree on treating Ronnie Brown with a good dose of caution.

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Miller_time

I not ready to anoint Westy as a top 3 RB. I know, he keeps putting up the numbers, I just could not bring myself to spending a top 3 pick on the guy.

Brady will no doubt go that high, but it won't be by me. He won't throw 50 TD's again (see Manning they year after his 49) and owners that spend the high pick on him will end up being disappointed when he does not separate himself from the other elite QB's that will be drafted a few rounds later.

Gore and Johnson will be interesting wildcards to watch. I can see people souring on them in some situation and them sliding even to high 2nd rounders (especially Gore), and I can see others still being high on them and taking them mid 1st.

I think the top group of WR's will go higher then you have them. Moss could go even higher if he's back in NE, and Owens, Wayne, Edwards, Cj and others will be in the mix early as well. Some of those guys could be corner targets and high 2nds.

Intersteing to see Gates still in the 3rd. Not sure he provided the separation from the rest that he once did. TE is a deep position now, just don't see the need to spend a 3rd on him, when you can spend a 5th or 6th on someone like Clark.

Brandon Marshall is a guy I expect to get a lot of hype this off season which will rise him to an early 3rd round choice.

Overall, I expect the RBBC syndrome to cause owners to look at WR's earlier then in years past as they RB position is beginning to get watered down. After the first group of elite runners, RBBC leaves you guessing on RB's when the top group of WR's seem to be safer picks.

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MOJO

This seems pretty close as for average consensus.

I think Steven Jackson and Adrian Peterson will in fact be that high, however, I won't touch them up there.

Marion Barber is about right, depending on whether Jerry breaks the bank for McFadden or not.

Looking at the quarterbacks, drafting Brady that high will be a mistake. I expect many of the Patriots to go too high in drafts in 2008 though.

I expect you won't be seeing Fargas going in the 4th round as Bush should be ready to go this off-season, and I think he most likely gets at least 50% of the carries. If Bush struggles though, then all bets are off on what happens with the Raiders running game.

Hawks Eye

I agree with you. People jump on the bandwagons quick and place too high a value on players... I mean, how early did Peyton get picked in YOUR drafts this year? It may be too early for such a QB pick, but I don't think you'd be disappointed with the results.

fantasyfool

Looks pretty close to what I was thinking. I wouldn't touch a lot of the RB that find themselves late first round. I got burned by Johnson this year, and I would hate to take another bad break with my first pick.

I'm curious to see how high WR and QBs will climb this offseason. RB is so deep with RBBC situations, I would think that QBs might make a move for more of the 2nd round spots. I am sure as camps start and RBBC get formed, the QB could be the position to take after the top RB are gone.

Agree on Antonio Gates not going so high. TE has a lot of stars/sleepers now. I am just waiting to see where Michael Bush and McFadden will fit in here once McFadden is drafted and Bush is back on the field.

Coachnorm

I have to like Westy up there this upcoming year. He has proven himself year in and year out and what were weaknesses are not nearly the factor they used to be.

MOJO

wide receivers climbed for me this year, as the last couple of years had me convinced to drop running back value a little do to the RBBC situations that are taking over the league.

MOJO

I got on the Westbrook bandwagon quite late, as a matter of fact, not until this past season.

Providing there isn't too much offseason chaos in Philly, and providing Philly upgrades that old offensive line, I think I feel safe with risking a high pick on Westbrook again in 2008, but even if he does great in 2008, I wont risk it again beyond that.

MOJO

With the Super Bowl behind us now, and the assumption that the Giants will be using a two-back system, where does Brandon Jacobs value go?

Ahmad Bradshaw is quickly emerging and demanding more and more carries. Is is possible that Bradshaw works his way into getting the majority of the carries at some point in 2008?

Remote Controller

What about Ward? He was the best back on the team by far last season!

fantasyfool

If they keep Ward, I think there is potential for Jacobs to move back to a short yardage goal line game with Bradshaw and Ward possibly taking carries on early downs.

I still think Jacobs is the back to take next year for the Giants. He will get the majority of TDs. Bradshaw and Ward could steal some of his value as the year goes on and if he battles with injuries again.

eaglechick

are they planning to keep ward?

Phicinfan

I was thinking the same thing. I thought Ward was a UFA and expected to walk:

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Remote Controller

I don't know about that but he was their best back by far this season. It was not even close.

fantasyfool

Ward is currently in talks with the Giants to re-sign, but nothing has been finalized.

MOJO

Ward was the standout guy early, but this was when the Giants were doing all they could to keep from putting Ahmad Bradshaw on the field.

Something to remember with this guy is his off the field problems which made him drop in value. The guy has done nothing but impress every time he has gotten a chance, but the Giants have made every effort to contain the guy this year. I think they fear what might happen if he gets too cocky, too soon.

I think you have to look very closely at this guy for 2008 though, as he is no longer an unknown factor. And if you paid attention here before the start of the season, he wouldn't have already been on the radar before he ever played a down in the NFL. The guy has great skills, and if he can keep his head in check, he has a very promising NFL career ahead of him.