I would take Jackson before I took Peterson.

He doesnt.

He failed to reach 100 total yards in 7 games last year. In those games, he failed to score a TD in 2 of them. He failed to reach 100 yards rushing in 10 games. He's a great RB, but he is not a guarenteed monster like he used to be.

Brian Westbrook rushed for almost as many yards as Tomlinson on less carries. Westbrook also caught more passes. Tomlinson did score 6 more TDs than Westbrook, but he also got 4 TDs in one game against a very bad Oakland Raiders team. Westbrook also missed a game where he probably would have blown up, and he did pass on that TD against Dallas. The scoring difference is there on paper, but in reality is much closer.

Adrian Peterson did miss a couple games. He also nearly outrushed Tomlinson on almost 100 less carries. He had to split time with Chester Taylor early on, which will probably not be a factor to the same degree in year two.

Peterson also got held under 100 total yards 7 times. He failed to score a TD in 5 of those games, the majority coming after the dreaded injury last season.

What do all these stats tell you? That each guy has his upside and downside. That if your in a PPR league, your not going to go wrong with Tomlinson or Westbrook. That if your looking to roll the dice, each guy is a safe roll. That there is a reason these guys are 1-2-3 in RB rankings.

On paper, with the body of work in front of you from last season, the easiest pick is going to be LT2. But fantasy football is as much about making smart picks as it is some times rolling the dice.

Like I said. Your not going to lose with any man you select here. They are all winners.

Would I get struck down if I exposed my gut feeling and confessed that I have a man crush on Joe Addai this year?
Seems like everyone is making this group of the top 4 recently LT AP Steven Jackson and Westy. I really believe that Addai fits into this group. I'm not saying he should go #1 by any means. I'm just saying that I secretly pray for the 5th pick in the draft so i can go with my gut and not get ridiculed for it. If I can't have Addai I'll take Steven Jackson.
If it's PPR though I'll take LT followed by Westy, S Jackson, Addai , and then AP.

No getting struck down, at least I hope not, because I went with my gut also. Like what was said above, I don't think you could lose with either of the top 4-5.

Not at all. I would take Addai before I took Peterson. I could see an argument for Addai as the #1, but I couldn't be convinced to not take Tomlinson this year.

Ok good. Thought maybe I had lost all touch with sensible things for a moment there. Think I could convince you that Thomas Jones is a top 10 RB this year???

Me too, and in a ppr, would have to think very hard about Addai as well.

Sarge brings up a good point that on paper, it doesn't appear that you can go wrong with any of the top group. However, history tells you that you in fact will go wrong with at least one of these top 5 picks, maybe more. Last year Jackson and Gore were top 5 mortal locks, and if you took them, it didn't turn out so well.

That is why in this case I'm leaning LT, and it's not close. Experience is the reason and the track record I have to go on. AP looked like a STUD!! And should be one this year, but in the end, I only have 14 games to make a judgment on him from, with LT I have so much more. The 2-4 spots in basic scoring are all very close with AP, SJax, and Addai....yes, I have Westy a notch below still. In a ppr, Westy replaces AP in that top 4.

And this isn't saying that I think AP will disappoint, but I'm just not ready to anoint him the King just yet. To be the best, you have to beat the best, something AP has not done yet.

No guarentee that Jackson isnt anything other than a flash in the pan either.

Another interesting note on Peterson's year last season. If you take his same exact fantasy stats, which made him the #3 RB last season, and put him against the results of 2006, he would not have been the #3 RB, he would have been #8!!!

In basic, decimal scoring, AP scored 235.9 in 2007.
In 2006, here was the top 10:
LT - 433.3
LJ - 331.9
SJax - 327.4
Gore - 266.0
Parker - 263.7
Westy - 255.6
Tiki - 241.7
07 Peterson - 235.9
MJD -226.7
Rudi - 213.2
Duece - 190.9

Just some more food for thought, everything is relative, and in a down RB year Peterson's numbers looked amazing, but he only scored about 10 pts more then MJD did his rookie season, and no one was ready to take him #1 last season.....

1521 rush yards, 16 TDs
65 rec, 482 yards, 2 TDs

what are those numbers? that is an AVERAGE tomlinson season over the course of his career. any of those other RBs would call that a career season. tomlinson is just on a level of his own. really, his worst season in the last six years is ONLY 1800 yards and 18 TDs.

you are absolutely crazy to take anyone other than him at #1. maybe someone will beat him. maybe he wont hold up all season. maybe.

lets put it this way. lets say there was a fantasy horse draft last week. maybe you had a hunch that some other horse was going to do well, or that big brown was due for a loss. do you take one of the long shots with your #1 pick? is there ANY way you dont take big brown?

maybe tomlinson finally hits the wall this year. that is a ship i am more than willing to sink with. until it happens, you get that #1 pick, it's a free ticket to a top 4 team if youre just not a moron.

Very well could be, I guess the deciding factor for me is his flash, was much bigger then AP's flash last year. Jackson broke out in 06 and then fell back with oline and injury problems last year. however, his fantasy production in 06 was almost 100 pts higher then AP's last year. That shows me a very high ceiling.

For me, it's a very close call between those 2, and I can't blame anyone for going in AP's direction at 2. But I'd feel a little more comfortable with jackson.

Very nice. Awesome post.

Yeah, I was speaking in hyperbole. And he didn't have the monster year he had before last, but in general you know what you get with Tomlinson compared to AD who can blow up big time and follow it with stretches of next to nothing. Its like that with all running backs and not a knock. Tomlinson's consistency on the field and off the injury report is freakish even if others have bigger Sundays than him.

Like I said, its a good idea and bump your depth up a round or two just in case, because he can't do this forever.

Of course lets not forget that AP shared with Taylor and had the injury biz...and of course was the only offensive threat on that team.

Jax and LT2 and are the undisputed heavyweight champions of their team. No one else carries the gold. This year, I think we see that with AP.

SJax had an awesome 06. 07 sucked. Ive taken Tomlinson and AP both at #1. I was happy with either team.

It just all depends on how much dice you want to roll, what your flavor is, and how big your sack is when the time comes to pull the trigger.