If you are holding the #1 pick in a rookie draft, need a running back, and you are not me, then you are most likely very anxious to pull the trigger on Adrian Peterson unless someone offers you a very nice trade.

With that said, forgetting your team loyalties, and looking at the teams that have a good shot at drafting him, where do you see the best place for him in terms of providing the fantasy impact that you are looking for?

Keep in mind this is a rookie, so be considering the potential impact for 2008-2009, not this year.

I think your most likely possibilities are..

Cleveland
Tampa Bay
Atlanta
Houston

I don't see any chance at all that he falls past Houston, but if you can make a good case for it, then by all means, roll with it.

There is the slight chance that he does go to another team in the top 10, but I think those chances are very slim, barring a potential trade.

My choice would be the Houston Texans

If he is what most think he will be, the field will be virtually all his by 2008, and "one cut and go" will fit his running style very well. It will fit him so well that the biggest problem Gary Kubiak would have is convincing him to actually take that first cut before he does go. Peterson wastes absolutely no time in the backfield, usually doesn't take enough time (no patience), so I feel his best chance to succeed is here.

I think I will have to agree that Houston, first, will want to take him pretty badly after passing on Bush and second, will be a good place for him to shine. Houston has a decent team and is in dire need of a star RB. They will do everything possible to make sure he succeeds.

I would like to add that I really do not see Tampa taking Peterson. Don;t count out Carnell yet. He had a poor supporting cast last year nad I expect him to do much better this year after his sophomore slum in '06.

Something I found really strange when I started this thread, and it was the realization of how so much has changed in the NFL.

Last year, very good running backs found themselves being taken late in the first round. When I started going through teams for this, I realized that, outside of Houston, it would be no shock at all if Peterson, whom just about everyone is convinced will be great, could easily slide to the middle of this draft.

Just a few years ago, I think that most teams at the top would take him simply for the fact that he is considered a top quality running back. Now, the importance of that seems to be slipping as more and more teams begin using multiple backs.

First I don't think cleveland walks away from Peterson. However, if he does, I see him going to Minnesota before Houston. I agree, Houston would be a great fit...but Minn. lost alot of production toward the end as Chester Taylor wore down. To add a solid Rb combo to support a young Qb...would be a great move for Minny.

"as more and more teams begin using multiple backs."

A huge impact on how I play Fantasy Football, right there.

Is that where you feel Peterson's fantasy value is the best?

Oh...should have read closer.

Still....

In cleveland, the O-line is still an issue, Qb play is learning but questionable, and potential of 2nd best reciever(TE actually) won't be playing. Not sure anyone can run well in that situation.

In Houston......hmm....looks pretty close to the same. Bad O-line although improving, shared carries with new FA signed rb, passing game questionable...young Qb learning....

in Minnesota....young Qb...but O-line is much better, and at least some hope of protecting the qb exists for a passing game.

Of the three, I would say his value is pretty high in this case.

Honestly, the best case scenario...for fantasy value would be Green Bay or Buffalo to trade up to get him. I just don't see that happening.

Atlanta Would be a great spot for him IMO

I get the feeling that most aren't expecting much from this guy....

For 2008 and beyond, it has to be Cleveland, and I don't think it's close. They will likely have LeCharles Bentley back on the line, which is slowly improving and traditionally that franchise takes a grind-it-out approach to offense. Plus he gets a 1 year internship under Jamal Lewis to watch and learn the playbook.

And lest we forget, if 2-yard Rueben Droughns can become a 1k yard RB there, I see many 1800+ yards-from-scrimmage seasons for Adrian.