Average Draft Position - 2.06

2006 Stats (16 games played, 1 start)

• Rushing - 166 Carries, 941 Yards, 13 Touchdowns
• Receiving - 46 Receptions, 436 Yards, 2 Touchdowns

Fire - Da Bomb
Ice - Maverick824

Da Bomb provides our "Fire" for Jacksonville Jaguars Running Back, Maurice Jones-Drew

Maurice Jones-Drew - Fire

Before we get too knee deep in numbers, let me start by saying that the value of Maurice Jones-Drew, as much as any player on the draft board, depends heavily on your league's scoring and format. In my dynasty league, for instance, we get points for both receptions and yardage, and MJD ranks #4 on my board -- this year. In a "normal" league without counting those points, his value will be less but still within my top 10. But do be sure to watch the scoring. He should be in your top 15 in any system, but bump him even further if your scoring system merits it.

Ok, time to face the facts. Fact: MJD scored 16 TDs last year. For the math-challenged out there, that's an averaged of 1 TD in every game. He scored at least 1 TD in his final 8 games last season; not even the immortal LaDainian Tomlinson matched that feat. That's a whole lot of TDs. And he's likely to stay high. If you look at RBs with at least 12 TDs since 2003, 13 of the 15 of them who played healthy on the same team next year had double digit TDs again. If you look at RBs since '03 with at least 16 TDs, 6 of the 9 had at least that many again the next year, and two of the misses (Alexander and Priest) were well on pace if not for injuries. So the TDs will be there.

But the touches won't be, right? I know your argument. "He only had 166 carries last year, and Fred Taylor's still there, and I hate RBBC!" Get this though. Those 166 carries were the least of any RB in the top 10 since 2000, yet he was safely there. And do you really think he's only going to get 166 again? During the last four games of last season when it was all on the line for the Jags, do you know who got the ball? Give ya one guess. MJD had 95 carries all season but saw 15, 25, 19, and 12 those last four games while Taylor had 18... combined. So really, tell me again he's not going to see an increase on those 166 carries.

Plus he's going to get the ball in other situations too. He already had 46 catches last year as a rookie and was explosive on screens, so he's likely to add you around 500 bonus yards there. And if you're lucky, he might even score you a special teams TD.

Take a final look at those final 8 games last season. MJD had 96 carries for 621 yards along with 25 catches for 238 yards and a combined 10 TDs. Even if he doesn't increase touches, those numbers over a full season leave him at 1250 yards rushing, close to 500 receiving, and 20 TDs. In case you're wondering, that would put him 4th in last year's RB rankings.

So you're sitting there at the bottom of the first. You already have a superstud RB. You might even pass on MJD once for a stud WR. But now it's time for your second RB, and you're staring those "workhorse" guys like Benson and Thomas Jones and Deuce right between the eyes. Don't blink. MJD had 1400 combined yards last year despite only one game as a real "workhorse." Take the receiving yards and the TDs. Take the youth and the upside. Take the RB who should be going in the bottom of the first round. Take Maurice Jones-Drew.

"Maverick824" provides our "Ice" for Jacksonville Jaguars Running Back, Maurice Jones-Drew

Maurice Jones-Drew - Ice

So, you're sitting in your war room. You didn't get the great fortune of a top 5 pick, which means lock stud backs like LT, SJax, LJ, and Alexander have skimmed your draft board and fell to other teams. Assuming you have done your homework correctly so far, you've still got a solid value at RB in a 12 team league with your first pick. Backs have flown off the board in the first, and chances are you are sitting there looking down the draft list trying to find a complement to whatever workhorse you chose in the first. Looking at last year's stats, you come across Maurice Jones-Drew. "Wow! This guy had 16 TD's last year! He's young, and in a system with a guy who constantly gets injured, not to mention the fact that he's very old." Before you snap this young guy up without thinking twice, let's take a closer look at the back that will break more fantasy hearts than any other this year.

First and foremost, (and I can NOT stress this enough), HE IS NOT THE PRIMARY BALLCARRIER IN HIS OWN BACKFIELD! Fred Taylor is old, but more than anything, Jones-Drew is extending his career, not ending it, this season. While Taylor's yardage was cut into, and obviously his goalline looks, he played a full season without injury. How many times have we been able to say that about Fragile Freddy over the years? Jones-Drew is NOT going to top 200 carries, he might not even get to what he had last season. What's worse, Greg Jones is healthy again this season, and from what we hear out of the Jag's camp, he's going to be battling Drew for the goalline pops this season.

Beyond all the competition in the backfield, let's not forget that the Jaguars don't exactly have the most consistent offense in football. They have no true playmaker WR, have been embattled with two QB's fighting for the same spot for two years now. The need for a playmaker in the receiving corps wasn't addressed in the offseason, and since they return the same young guys back this season, there's no reason to think that teams won't be keying on the run against Jacksonville this season. Face it, Leftwich to Wilford isn't scaring too many teams right now. Add into that the fact that teams know what to expect when Drew hits the field, and I'm sure a whole season to game plan for what the Jags plan to do with him will help defenses tone him down a bit.

Lastly, and I preach this to just about anyone who plays fantasy football with any seriousness, when you're drafting in the middle rounds, it's very very important to take a look at a simple spectrum: "need vs. value." At this stage in the draft, mid second, about where Jones-Drew will usually be taken, chances are that a top flight WR has fallen down to you. Odds are, someone like a Larry Fitzgerald, Torry Holt, Terrell Owens, or maybe, just maybe, a Marvin Harrison or Chad Johnson if teams are slurping up all the backs. Look at the production that one of these receivers are going to get you versus a very hit or miss Jones-Drew. If you take Jones-Drew now, when you get back around in the 3rd, most, if not all of these fellas are now off the board, and your #1 WR is going to end up being in the third tier. Which, ironically enough, is going to produce as many points in most scoring systems as Jones-Drew will. If he busts on you, your season is in the toilet.

In conclusion, it comes down to a basic concept. You take the sure things early, and save the gambles and reaches for the late rounds when you're filling out your depth chart. Gamble on Jones-Drew at 2.6, and you could be derailing your season before it ever starts!

Put me in the camp that just doesn't believe that Jones-Drew will continue his production from last season. As Maverick stated, Drew is extending the career of Fred Taylor, not ending it.

I do like the guy, and think he is going to evolve eventually into a change of pace type running back. Actually, in this era of two and three back systems, his value will be more than a typical "change of pace back", but I just don't see taking the risk of drafting him this early.

If he is there in the 3rd round, I have no problem taking him as my 2nd running back.

I'm with Mike on this... I think they'll be other options that I'd go with in this spot

Damn,

A Redskins fan agrees with me, now I must consider changing my stance on this...........

As probably one of my only posts this season.... mark me down as a believer that MJD will finish top-5 in scoring among RBs, and that he will do it without breaking the top-15 in touches.

Three words:

Center of Gravity

Sorry to drop a bomb on Jones-Drew, but Leftwich will go before him. A crowded back field, unsure QBs, and low tier WRs. This is a fantasy nightmare!!!

It was great going through Bomb's thinking process on MJD since early June. He lambasted me for taking him in a draft then. After running his #'s, and listening to ME , he did a 180. this is not a slam against Bomb at all, on the contrary, this is a window into his thinking, and reinforces my high regard for MJD this season. This is a run first, run often team, with a great Defense, who plan to shorten games with the run. MJD will defintly receive more touches this season. I won't simply hand him 16 td's again, but i will peg him with 1300 combined yards, and 11 Td's.

On Fire at 2.06, and likely available as deep as 2.09 ot 2.10.

Editted to include that GBP doesn't figure into the discussion. (Greg Buckhalter Perry)

I don't dought MJD will be gone by/at 2.06. Someone will believe the hype, and look at last years stats, and go WOW, mineminemine. As for myself, I teeter on the fence. If he was "The Man " in Jacksonville with some "Other" offence around him, then he would be a 1st Round Pick. As the team stands, with F.Tayler as the #1 RB, and the WR stable still wild and untamed, with a "Flip a Coin" QB spot, his value to me would drop to a #3 Rd. or even a 4th Rd. pick.
Now in my warped mind to put MJD at the 2.06 spot the following would have to happen.
1. Put Culpepper behind the center. He's better then anything they have now. Give him a 2 year contract with an opption for a 3rd and do what ever you have to to get the best QB in the 08' Rookie Draft.
2. Jacksonville has got to train some disipline into that wild stable they call a WR corps. In the last 2 years not one WR is worth more then a #3 spot on any depth chart in the league. Someone has to step up and bring a wingman with them. Either that or find some more race horses.
3. F.Taylor would have to voluntarilly give up more carries. In other words , "Take a Back Seat" to MJD. I do not see that happening unless F.Tayler gets dinged up real good, or his contract runs out. As long as he produces, and his name puts butt's in seats, Fred won't take a back seat to anyone.
Thats what would have to happen for me to take MJD at the 2.06 spot. RR

Simply not buying the hype here. I prefer a more stable 2nd round option then takign a stab at a RBBC in the 2nd. I believe his 16 TD's will be a career high when it's all said and done. How many times have we seen it? Young RB looks great in limited action, posts eye popping numbers, can duplicate it....well your going to see it again.

Always did think Bomb was brighter than you!!!

J/K

Always wondered what was wrong with you....that explains a lot right there

The 2nd round of a draft is where you find a RB that will carry the load for his team scoring points for you in the process. This is not the time to pick a RB who will split time at best and may lose more carries to Jones at the goalline. I would use him as a bye week replacement and insurance against injury to my top two RB's.