Fire and Ice #6: Larry Johnson

Mike · 07-27-2007, 07:50 PM

Larry Johnson
Running Back - Kansas City Chiefs

Average Draft Position - 1.03

2006 Stats (16 games played, 1 start)

Rushing - 416 Carries, 1789 Yards, 17 Touchdowns
Receiving - 41 Receptions, 410 Yards, 2 Touchdowns

Fire - Lemmer
Ice - Mike

Mike · 07-27-2007, 07:54 PM

"Lemmer" provides our "Fire" for Kansas City Chiefs Running Back, Larry Johnson

Larry Johnson - Fire

We all have heard the so call experts tells us that the Kansas City has already used up Larry Johnson in a little less than two years. History has shown that over the last seven years when a running back carries the ball over 370 times in a season, that player's production has seen a major drop the following year. Why is Larry Johnson going to differ from this trend you may ask?

One of the main reasons why LJ is going to break this trend does not have to do with his running style or attitude about his contract situation this season. It is the man who is running this team, coach Herm Edwards. Edwards’s main game plan since becoming a head coach in this league is to set up the run to open the offense up. No matter what defense scheme is thrown at the offense, Coach Edwards is going to continue to run the ball. See Curtis Martin for proof of this, he averaged around 300 carries in the back end of his career under the guidance of Coach Edwards. .

Looking at Johnson from a fantasy standpoint, you cannot push aside his numbers over the last two seasons where he has only been the starter for a year and a half. He has carried the ball an average of 376 times, (416 times last year, setting a nfl record), 1769.5 yards (4.8 yds per carry), and 18.5 TD. LJ is also a threat coming out of the backfield with good hands and the ability to break a open field tackle. He has averaged37 receptions for 377 yards (10.2 yds per receptions), with 1.5 TD's over the past 2 seasons.

The Chiefs have only a few options on the offensive side of the ball. While I know this is not a good thing because the defense has less to defend when playing your team, this is how the team has been running the ball over the last few years. The continued focus has always been the RB (Holmes or Johnson) and Tony Gonzalez as the main threats in the offense. Since 2004 the Chiefs ground attack has accounted for 40% of touchdowns scored in the red zone, which is a total of 63 touchdowns over the three year span.

Even with the changes to the offense line, and yes the Chief’s O-line dynasty is over, do I think LJ can repeat last year’s numbers? Yes, no question about it. With him being a young 27 years old and no major injury concerns he's just hitting the prime of his career.

Mike · 07-27-2007, 08:11 PM

"Mike" provides our "Ice" for Kansas City Chiefs Running Back, Larry Johnson

Larry Johnson - Ice

The ice for Larry Johnson is more like a glass full of very cold water. There is no denying he is one of the most talented running backs in the league. There is no denying he is one of the most dangerous backs in the league for opposing defenses, when his head is in the game. There is also no denying he is one of the biggest crybabies in the league if things don't go his way. Larry Johnson wants a new contract with $28 Million in guaranteed money. He won't get this. What will he do when he doesn't? Just like most crybabies, he will pout, and he will whine.

Last year was a very good year statistically for Larry Johnson. After a somewhat slow start, LJ put up some outstanding numbers. The downside to this is that he put up these numbers at the cost of a ton of wear and tear on his body. A wear and tear to the tune of close to 500 touches. History shows that a running back cannot stand up to this kind of a workload, and they often rebound from a season like this with much lower numbers, and often with a season full of injuries.

The wear and tear on LJ is not the only thing that he has going against him. He is also missing training camp time due to a contract holdout, and what may be even worse, the man he used to backup, Priest Holmes, has showed up at training camp attempting a comeback after almost 2 years off. The Chiefs already stated that they will reduce Larry Johnson's workload this year (less touches), if Priest Holmes is anywhere near the running back that he was in 2005, those numbers could be very much reduced.

You need a top 5 pick to draft Larry Johnson. I don't see any way he can live up to that value.

portis26 · 07-28-2007, 09:47 AM

Contract dispute
other viable option (Gore) in the #3 hole
QB issues.

I'm down on him this season... but at #6-7 - you gotta take him, not top 5

Mike · 07-28-2007, 12:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by portis26

I'm down on him this season... but at #6-7 - you gotta take him, not top 5

That is about where I am envisioning him. I had him at #4 during my last rankings for running backs, but he just keeps dropping in my mind. #6-#10 is where I would be looking for him, and the chances of him being there are slim to none.

Hollywoodnash · 07-28-2007, 06:03 PM

At 1.03, you have to assume that LT and Sjax are off the board. Johnson is the 3rd best back, and there is a premium on runningbacks in fantasy football. How do you not take the 3rd best back in the league with the third pick? If LT or SJax were available at 1.03, then Im taking one of them, but in every draft ive worked this year, they're not. Gore is an option here, but Johnson has proven consistancy. I like Gore and would give him strong consideration here, but Im not sold on San Fran as of yet.

Vicious_Machine · 07-28-2007, 07:38 PM

i have to take Gore.
how can i not... i love everything about this guy except his health issues.

and the 49ers are a diff team, not just on O, but on D as well, and should be a real good team.

i'd drop LJ to 6th in a 1 year pool, behind Gore-Alex-Addai, but at 6th, i know i couldnt pass him.... and i'm going to have nightmares about taking him there.

i rather end up drafting 9th-10th, and get Rudi and sleep ez

dannywest · 07-28-2007, 09:43 PM

LJ's fantasy numbers have been incredible, but at some point when a back is given that much work the numbers fall dramatically. The contract dispute worries me as does the lack of a solid QB which will all but guarantee that, if LJ plays, that he'll be seeing no less carries than he has the past couple seasons.

The resurrection of Priest Holmes doesn't particularly bother me, I think that is nothing more than a ploy to get LJ's people rolling on the contract negotiations, but at this point in time, I'm passing on LJ.

roid · 07-28-2007, 10:11 PM

No matter which way you slice it LJ is a top 5 RB. Is he holding out? Yes but that will change. Has he had a heavy load? Yes, but he is young and seems to thrive on the heavy workload. He might be the exception to the rule. If he is not he still has a couple more heavy work years easily left in him. A long holdout will hurt his stats but without LJ, KC might as well wrap up camp and go home.

RR

Vicious_Machine · 07-30-2007, 10:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by roid

No matter which way you slice it LJ is a top 5 RB. Is he holding out? Yes but that will change. Has he had a heavy load? Yes, but he is young and seems to thrive on the heavy workload. He might be the exception to the rule. If he is not he still has a couple more heavy work years easily left in him. A long holdout will hurt his stats but without LJ, KC might as well wrap up camp and go home.

RR

i think thats kind of interesting.
because while i think most people voted to pass on him at 3rd overall, 5th overall is a WHOLE DIFFERENT STORY.

if i'm drafting 5th and i see LJ there.... i would probably start crying, and then click draft LJ.

heck, i think i'd take him at 4th. Unless it was a PPR league, then i might lean on Addai, cause Indy likes to throw short passes, but even then I'd take LJ 5th ahead of guys like bush or westbrook.

The Ram · 07-30-2007, 10:33 AM

At third overall I'm passing on LJ. The added carries, wild change at both line and qb, added with the contract stuff makes me think there will be other options better suited to a 1st selection in a draft. I'd take Addai over LJ at this point.

eaglechick · 07-30-2007, 10:38 AM

I agree with VM. I'm taking Gore 3rd, and in PPR I'm taking Addai 4th. At 1.05 I'm gonna suck it up and take LJ, and I love Westbrook and Bush. Fortunately for me, this problem hasn't come up yet.

deuce4321 · 08-01-2007, 03:34 PM

In a PPR league Bush may be an option at 5 before LJ just due to to fact that he lined up as a WR at times last year and had success and I see that happening more frequently this year.

Vicious_Machine · 08-02-2007, 07:14 AM

i just dont see any justification for bush as 5th overall in a 1 year league. even in a PPR league. at least not based on the lining up at WR argument.

i mean, so what if he lines up at WR? he had 88 grabs last year. do people really think that will go up a crap load this year? lets be realistic....
best case he'll have more red zone touches for more TDs, and might get some more rushing yards, but there is little chance he is going to explode in terms of receptions.

i'd probably take Westbrook before bush, although that is where it gets really close at 6th, after i would have snagged up LJ.

a time share RB just cant be my top 5 pick.

Coachnorm · 08-12-2007, 09:52 PM

I hear that LJ is close to getting his extention.

Phicinfan · 08-13-2007, 01:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coachnorm

I hear that LJ is close to getting his extention.


07-27-2007, 07:54 PM	#2
Mike who me? Admin Join Date: Mar 2004 Location: L.A. (Lower Arkansas) Posts: 30,003 vCash: 14556843 Donate Blog Entries: 18	Larry Johnson - Fire (Lemmer) "Lemmer" provides our "Fire" for Kansas City Chiefs Running Back, Larry Johnson Larry Johnson - Fire We all have heard the so call experts tells us that the Kansas City has already used up Larry Johnson in a little less than two years. History has shown that over the last seven years when a running back carries the ball over 370 times in a season, that player's production has seen a major drop the following year. Why is Larry Johnson going to differ from this trend you may ask? One of the main reasons why LJ is going to break this trend does not have to do with his running style or attitude about his contract situation this season. It is the man who is running this team, coach Herm Edwards. Edwards’s main game plan since becoming a head coach in this league is to set up the run to open the offense up. No matter what defense scheme is thrown at the offense, Coach Edwards is going to continue to run the ball. See Curtis Martin for proof of this, he averaged around 300 carries in the back end of his career under the guidance of Coach Edwards. . Looking at Johnson from a fantasy standpoint, you cannot push aside his numbers over the last two seasons where he has only been the starter for a year and a half. He has carried the ball an average of 376 times, (416 times last year, setting a nfl record), 1769.5 yards (4.8 yds per carry), and 18.5 TD. LJ is also a threat coming out of the backfield with good hands and the ability to break a open field tackle. He has averaged37 receptions for 377 yards (10.2 yds per receptions), with 1.5 TD's over the past 2 seasons. The Chiefs have only a few options on the offensive side of the ball. While I know this is not a good thing because the defense has less to defend when playing your team, this is how the team has been running the ball over the last few years. The continued focus has always been the RB (Holmes or Johnson) and Tony Gonzalez as the main threats in the offense. Since 2004 the Chiefs ground attack has accounted for 40% of touchdowns scored in the red zone, which is a total of 63 touchdowns over the three year span. Even with the changes to the offense line, and yes the Chief’s O-line dynasty is over, do I think LJ can repeat last year’s numbers? Yes, no question about it. With him being a young 27 years old and no major injury concerns he's just hitting the prime of his career.

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07-27-2007, 07:50 PM	#1
Mike who me? Admin Join Date: Mar 2004 Location: L.A. (Lower Arkansas) Posts: 30,003 vCash: 14556843 Donate Blog Entries: 18	Fire and Ice #6: Larry Johnson - Running Back, Kansas City Chiefs Larry Johnson Running Back - Kansas City Chiefs Average Draft Position - 1.03 2006 Stats (16 games played, 1 start) Rushing - 416 Carries, 1789 Yards, 17 Touchdowns Receiving - 41 Receptions, 410 Yards, 2 Touchdowns Fire - Lemmer Ice - Mike


07-27-2007, 08:11 PM	#3
Mike who me? Admin Join Date: Mar 2004 Location: L.A. (Lower Arkansas) Posts: 30,003 vCash: 14556843 Donate Blog Entries: 18	Larry Johnson - Ice (Mike) "Mike" provides our "Ice" for Kansas City Chiefs Running Back, Larry Johnson Larry Johnson - Ice The ice for Larry Johnson is more like a glass full of very cold water. There is no denying he is one of the most talented running backs in the league. There is no denying he is one of the most dangerous backs in the league for opposing defenses, when his head is in the game. There is also no denying he is one of the biggest crybabies in the league if things don't go his way. Larry Johnson wants a new contract with $28 Million in guaranteed money. He won't get this. What will he do when he doesn't? Just like most crybabies, he will pout, and he will whine. Last year was a very good year statistically for Larry Johnson. After a somewhat slow start, LJ put up some outstanding numbers. The downside to this is that he put up these numbers at the cost of a ton of wear and tear on his body. A wear and tear to the tune of close to 500 touches. History shows that a running back cannot stand up to this kind of a workload, and they often rebound from a season like this with much lower numbers, and often with a season full of injuries. The wear and tear on LJ is not the only thing that he has going against him. He is also missing training camp time due to a contract holdout, and what may be even worse, the man he used to backup, Priest Holmes, has showed up at training camp attempting a comeback after almost 2 years off. The Chiefs already stated that they will reduce Larry Johnson's workload this year (less touches), if Priest Holmes is anywhere near the running back that he was in 2005, those numbers could be very much reduced. You need a top 5 pick to draft Larry Johnson. I don't see any way he can live up to that value.


07-28-2007, 09:47 AM	#4
portis26 Outlaw Join Date: May 2006 Location: New Jersey Posts: 210 vCash: 15875 Donate	Contract dispute other viable option (Gore) in the #3 hole QB issues. I'm down on him this season... but at #6-7 - you gotta take him, not top 5


07-28-2007, 06:03 PM	#6
Hollywoodnash TO THE DEATH Join Date: Sep 2006 Location: TX Posts: 1,073 vCash: 80062 Donate	At 1.03, you have to assume that LT and Sjax are off the board. Johnson is the 3rd best back, and there is a premium on runningbacks in fantasy football. How do you not take the 3rd best back in the league with the third pick? If LT or SJax were available at 1.03, then Im taking one of them, but in every draft ive worked this year, they're not. Gore is an option here, but Johnson has proven consistancy. I like Gore and would give him strong consideration here, but Im not sold on San Fran as of yet.


07-28-2007, 07:38 PM	#7
Vicious_Machine Outlaw Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 272 vCash: 17548 Donate	i have to take Gore. how can i not... i love everything about this guy except his health issues. and the 49ers are a diff team, not just on O, but on D as well, and should be a real good team. i'd drop LJ to 6th in a 1 year pool, behind Gore-Alex-Addai, but at 6th, i know i couldnt pass him.... and i'm going to have nightmares about taking him there. i rather end up drafting 9th-10th, and get Rudi and sleep ez


07-28-2007, 09:43 PM	#8
dannywest Psychopath Join Date: Dec 2006 Location: PSJ, Florida Posts: 3,702 vCash: 449009 Donate Blog Entries: 27	LJ's fantasy numbers have been incredible, but at some point when a back is given that much work the numbers fall dramatically. The contract dispute worries me as does the lack of a solid QB which will all but guarantee that, if LJ plays, that he'll be seeing no less carries than he has the past couple seasons. The resurrection of Priest Holmes doesn't particularly bother me, I think that is nothing more than a ploy to get LJ's people rolling on the contract negotiations, but at this point in time, I'm passing on LJ.


07-28-2007, 10:11 PM	#9
roid Captain Jarhead Premium Member Join Date: Apr 2006 Location: Modesto, Central Cal. Posts: 1,600 vCash: 13993 Donate	No matter which way you slice it LJ is a top 5 RB. Is he holding out? Yes but that will change. Has he had a heavy load? Yes, but he is young and seems to thrive on the heavy workload. He might be the exception to the rule. If he is not he still has a couple more heavy work years easily left in him. A long holdout will hurt his stats but without LJ, KC might as well wrap up camp and go home. RR


07-30-2007, 10:33 AM	#11
The Ram is dumb so type slow Premium Member Forum Leader Join Date: May 2006 Location: Colorado Posts: 2,961 vCash: 140429 Donate Blog Entries: 24	At third overall I'm passing on LJ. The added carries, wild change at both line and qb, added with the contract stuff makes me think there will be other options better suited to a 1st selection in a draft. I'd take Addai over LJ at this point.


07-30-2007, 10:38 AM	#12
eaglechick Hot Mama Join Date: Aug 2005 Location: Germany (from Philly) Posts: 3,412 vCash: 1279879 Donate Blog Entries: 9	I agree with VM. I'm taking Gore 3rd, and in PPR I'm taking Addai 4th. At 1.05 I'm gonna suck it up and take LJ, and I love Westbrook and Bush. Fortunately for me, this problem hasn't come up yet.


08-01-2007, 03:34 PM	#13
deuce4321 Outlaw Join Date: Sep 2006 Location: New York Posts: 1,114 vCash: 1023058 Donate Blog Entries: 8	In a PPR league Bush may be an option at 5 before LJ just due to to fact that he lined up as a WR at times last year and had success and I see that happening more frequently this year.


08-02-2007, 07:14 AM	#14
Vicious_Machine Outlaw Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 272 vCash: 17548 Donate	i just dont see any justification for bush as 5th overall in a 1 year league. even in a PPR league. at least not based on the lining up at WR argument. i mean, so what if he lines up at WR? he had 88 grabs last year. do people really think that will go up a crap load this year? lets be realistic.... best case he'll have more red zone touches for more TDs, and might get some more rushing yards, but there is little chance he is going to explode in terms of receptions. i'd probably take Westbrook before bush, although that is where it gets really close at 6th, after i would have snagged up LJ. a time share RB just cant be my top 5 pick.


08-12-2007, 09:52 PM	#15
Coachnorm Bloggin' Outlaw Premium Member Forum Leader Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Naples, Fl Posts: 12,347 vCash: 1280788 Donate Blog Entries: 14	I hear that LJ is close to getting his extention.