"Phicinfan" provides our "Ice" for New Orleans Saints Running Back, Reggie Bush

Reggie Bush - Ice

Why am I ice on Reggie Bush? I will give you two words: Duece McCallister.

Reggie's numbers from last year:
155 rush attempts
565 yards rushing
3.6 yards per carry
6 rushing Tds
2 fumbles lost
88 receptions
742 receiving yards
2 receiving Tds

Not bad, not bad for a rookie at all. Not what I would call first round material though.

Now lets look at McCallister's numbers:
244 rush attempts
1057 rushing yards
4.3 yards per carry
10 rush tds
1 fumble lost
30 receptions
198 receiving yards

Not bad either. But there is a key difference here. McCallister was used often heavily early in games to help soften a defense. Then they would turn to Bush for speed later. But the key is...McCallister did this coming back from major knee surgery. So this year?

This year I see NO becoming Indianapolis East. They will have to score, and score alot to make up for what they are lacking on defense. Granted..they made some improvements on defense..but not enough. No this will be a team that will have to put alot of pts on the board. However, with Duece now having a full year from knee issues...I see some other things.

1) They will want to eat the clock more....so rushing McCallister more will happen, not Bush.
2) McCallister is a UFA at end of season. So they will USE and USE again McCallister to either raise his trade value, or to protect the future, which is Bush. I simply can't see them paying to keep both next year.
3) This trend had already started. Toward the end of the season, McCallister's carries increased...while Bush's decreased.

So, increase in carries, and usage of McCallister...only hurts Bush's value...not help it.

I am not totally down on Bush. In a PPR league, he is still valuable. But in this situation, of standard scoring, with a adp of 1.10...I simply won't waste my pick there. Not when I could get Rudi or Brown or some others that will fall there.

"Da Bomb" provides our "Fire" for New Orleans Saints Running Back, Reggie Bush

Reggie Bush - Fire

No one seems particularly down on Reggie Bush's NFL caliber talent. The bigger problem seems to be Deuce McAllister. I don't see Deuce as much of a problem. Let's play a little Fact or Fiction here...

#1 - Deuce is the TD threat and the go to guy in the redzone.

Yes, Deuce had 10 rushing TDs to Reggie's 6 last year, and yes 8 of the 10 were in the redzone. But all of Bush's 6 were as well -- let's face it, the Saints were in the redzone a lot. And Bush actually had a higher YPC and scored more times per carry. Plus Bush had 2 receiving TDs to Deuce's 0, and that 2 should increase with as many catches as he gets. And take a look at December where Bush scored an amazing 7 TDs to Deuce's 2. Still sure that Deuce is the bigger TD threat?

Verdict - Fiction

#2 - Deuce eats up the clock and softens the defense early in the game and will be the more important RB with the Saints' medicore defense.

Yes Deuce does chew up the clock... but it's the end of the game, and not the beginning where he does his work -- with the Saints leading and running the clock out. Deuce had about 3/5 of his carries with the Saints ahead and piled up 1/3 of his yardage total in the 4th quarter nursing those leads. Bush's carries were split evenly whether ahead or behind and his yardage was actually lowest in the 4th quarter. Why use your stud with a 2 TD lead and risk injury -- just let the other guy chew up the clock. So if the Saints truly will find themselves in a lot of closer games -- and they should with a poor defense and much more difficult schedule -- then it looks like Bush will be the one benefitting, not Deuce.

Verdict: Fiction

#3 - Reggie Bush just doesn't get enough rushing yardage to be a real 1st round pick.

Bush had just 565 rushing yards and a mediocre YPC of 3.6, so you can see the reason for concern here. But the key to Bush's value is not the 565 rushing yards -- it's the 1300 combined yards. A yard is a yard no matter how he gets it. 1300 combined yards is more than enough to get him into the top 15 RBs, and his TD numbers can do the rest. And it's not like you should expect only 1300 yards this year either. Look at the YPC per month. Bush increased from 2.4 in October to 3.1 in November to 5.1 in December. His yards per catch also increased. And after just one TD the first eleven games, Bush exploded for 7 more in the last five. It's not too inconceivable to at least expect Bush to get a couple hundred yards and a few TDs more. Let's say he tops out at 700 rushing yards, 800 receiving, and 10 total TDs. Those numbers would've put him in last year's top 10 RBs even with the mediocre rushing stats. And I'm sure I don't need to tell you that Bush's 109 yards and 1.4 TDs per game in December would project to the #4 RB, even without PPR. So can he produce with meager rushing stats? Looks like it.

Verdict: Fiction

Reggie Bush is unlike any other player currently in football. If you're going to try to compare him to a workhorse RB like Rudi Johnson, he just won't stack up as a runner. But this is fantasy football, and all that matters in the end is the number of points you get. You can probably find plenty of RBs near the end of the first round who will outrush Bush, but Reggie's receiving stats and TDs will more than make up the ground.

If he stays healthy this season, he is a top 10 RB lock. And that's the only fact in this column that really matters in the end.

Fire: If a rookie can have THAT much success in an offensive system that only got another year under its belt then he's going to live up to the hype.

1,300 total yards and 8 tds = mid-first round selection.

How do you NOT take that guy at the 10 spot knowing he's going to get better?

I'm Ice here, unless it's a ppr league, Bush is not a first rounder. There are plenty of other options available rather then risking your season on a RBBC back who will split time with another great running back.

In a standard league? Ice at 1.10

In a PPR league? 1.10 would be a steal

Are you nuts? Most leagues give the same points for yards caught as they give for yards carried. Screw ppt, he put up SOLID first rounder points as a rook. With another year to figure out how the Saints can employ his skills he'll be more dangerous in 07-08. I think you guys are letting the extraordinary amount of catches jade your judgment.

Sorry, without ppr this simply is NOT true!!!

He was the #19 RB last year basic scoring, hardly anything close to 1st round value.

yeah he definitely wasnt a 1st rounder last year. in fact until the last 6 games, he wasnt an anything rounder, and then he was a top 3 RB those last weeks. somewhere in between sounds right. but like noted above, he already had 1300/8 -- and increasing that to just 1500/10 puts him in the top 10 and validates his ADP.

What are you talking about?

He had 3 good games toward end of season. week 13,14 and 16. And of those games...only one had multiple touchdowns(week 13). Otherwise he was almost nothing. Meanwhile, Duece's carries increased the last 6 games, and in the playoffs...showing a clear trend of how the team relies on him more...especially in key games.

who really gives a rip if deuce gets more carries the last 5 games when bush is averaging over 100 yards a game? i dont get points for carries in any of my leauges.

the clear trend is that deuce piled on garbage stats when his team was ahead in games or when the games didnt matter (the saints were pretty much coasting into the playoffs in december). the team put deuce on the field and didnt risk their franchise RB getting hurt in meaningless time.

as for the playoffs... the first game deuce had 160 yards and 2 TDs with bush at 70 yards and a TD. the second game deuce had 40/0 and bush had 150/1. so bush scored moer fantasy points in the playoffs too.

Reggie Bush:
Week 12: 24rush 0Tds, 21recyds 0Tds
Week 13: 37rush 3Tds, 131recyds 1Tds
Week 14: 37rush 0Tds, 125recyds 1tds
Week 15: 14rush 0Tds, 19 recyds 0TDs
Week 16: 126rush 1Tds, 23recyds 0Tds
Week 17: 20rush 1Td, 13recyds 0Tds

First round he disappeared, second round of playoffs he went off.

first....how does this ave over 100yds in these weeks? Only 3 weeks rest is trash.
Second...I don't care when Duece gets yards, trash or otherwise..he is outscoring, out carrying and will do so even more this year..since he is more healthy.

thanks for making my point. Cause guess what...this will happen even more this year to drive up McCallisters trade value. Not to mention contract year for McCallister.

?? Looks pretty even to me...aren't we reaching here to make yourself feel better?

sure its pretty even in the playoffs. you made the point that deuce was progressing as the frontrunner at the end of the season and the playoffs. my point is that bush was consistently as good or better in fantasy points those weeks. if you look at those last 5 regular season games plus 2 playoff games, bush averaged over 100 combined yards and had 9 TDs (only one game without one). thats pretty darn good, no matter how many touches you get.

and i didnt make your point at all. you said yourself that the saints defense is poor which means the games should be close, and with a year to adjust to bush, brees, and the offense the games should be close from that too. add in a tougher schedule for a defending division champ and i highly doubt we see a ton of games where the saints are frontrunning in the 4th quarter by a couple tds or resting up the last few games of the season. i think the saints are more like a 9 or 10 win team this season. if the games are close and matter, bush will be on the field.

theres no such thing as driving up deuce's trade value. theyre not going to trade the guy, his contract runs out after this year. that does probably mean they can run him into the ground if they so choose. but theyre going to put the guys on the field who give them the best chance to win. to me, thats bush -- or both really, but still bush. im not worried about his lack of touches. hes so good with the ones he gets that it wont matter.

he got 1300/8 in combined stats last year. a jump to 1500/10 would make him a top 10 RB and make him worth his pick value. you dont see him adding 200 yards and 2 TDs to his rookie campaign that started out so slowly? and if not, do you see him equalling or dropping from last year?

No, I did not make the point of his progression. I made the point that as the end of the year came and the season was on the line, more carries went to McCallister...including the first playoff game. Numbers don't lie. It will be even more so this year.

Yes you did make my point, as pointed out above, when pressure was on, McCallister got more carries. He will again, as they will try to run more, and control clock more to protect ball for the defense. That does not fit what Bush does.

Yes he can be traded, can happen before, during or after the year before the contract expires. Hell, they can tag him...and then trade him. So using him, and his contract status only helps the team, and keeps wear and tear off Bush...which is needed. By the way...Bush on the field more than McCallister isn't helping them.

As I have stated, I see him dropping. They will focus on Bush more...and not allow him the big plays he got last year. I see a sophmore slump coming here.

im not sure what the issue is but i dont think youre following me on the 4th quarter and late season games thing. when the game was close or on the line, bush was in. when it was well in hand or didnt matter, they let deuce run the clock out. youre saying one thing and interpretting exactly opposite IMO.

as for a trade, yes i suppose it can happen in theory. but in the last 15 years we've seen like 4 or 5 major trades of players like that? its not like someones going to give a 1st or 2nd round pick for an aging RB who is not under contract. i dont see much to be gained there. you play to win the games, not to drive up one players trade value.

commenting on the last thing you wrote, you think defenses are not going to allow him to get as many "big plays".... bush had no rushes of over 20 yards. he had two receiving plays over 50 yards, and only four over 20 yards. for comparison sake, deuce had 1 play over 50 and 7 plays over 20. bush's production had almost nothing to do with "big plays." in fact it seems defenses were keyed in on him most of the season to limit them, and i guarantee you he was the key to brees, deuce, and colston's value. but bush got his fantasy stats by consistently creative attempts to get him the ball -- regular runs, end arounds, screens, slot receiver routes, kick returns -- and getting him the ball in positions where he could score. sean payton built this offense around his talents. if anything, i think it would be pretty reasonable to expect MORE than 2 "big plays" this year, not less.

In a PPR league with 1 point per reception, I will take this guy at the end of the first round. Other than that, no way.

The Saints offense last year was a clear case of smoke&mirrors to me. Busted play constantly worked out for this team and drives stays alive as a result.

I think the team as a whole takes a step back this year, and I am nowhere near convinced that Reggie Bush is the next great thing. When he can show me the ability to provide a consistent "complete" game, week in and week out, then, and only then, will I buy into this hype. Until then, he was merely a good weapon in an offense that had everybody surprised last year.

I agree with this 100%.

wow, bush looks AWESOME tonight. his cutting ability and burst are just unbelievable to watch. what a weapon, i cant believe the texans passed on this guy. thats a franchise crippling move.

the entire saints offense looks amazing tonight. drew brees is sharp, on the money, and ready. sean payton has the offense ready to go right now. granted, they do have a game under their belts already but wow they just have so many weapons.

I am on fire for Bush, but I would much rather grab him early in round 2. This is not because I think he is a 2nd round talent. I just feel that he will likely be available till about the 2nd or 3rd pick in the round, regardless of the #10 ADP. I don't buy that.

Sean Peyton showed how easy it was to gameplan Bush and Deuce. He also showed that he was a master at it. I can't imagine a scenario where Bush is used less in either the run or passing game. I also can't imagine him starting as slow as he did last year. He is my 7th ranked RB, but i have him slotted to leave the buliding at pick 13 or 14. If you are a corner drafter (10-12), I recommend drafting Rudi with your first round pick, then speculating on Bush around the corner, with MJD as your fall back plan!!

yeah i have to admit i was surprised by the 1.10 ADP. some places now its 1.8. looks like the hype is pushing him up and maybe too far out of reach. people are practically trying to make him bust by pushing his ADP so high.