There is always a lot of talk about the 3rd year is the breakout year for wideouts. But is it really? How well do the numbers correspond? To look at this, compare the numbers for the top 100 receivers in terms of yardage of all time. This first chart indicates the number of receivers to hit either the 800, 1,000, or 10 TD milestones and in which year they hit that mark. If they never hit that mark, they are listed under never.

BREAKDOWN OF FIRST MILESTONES, TOP 100 RECEIVERS ALL-TIME
YR 800yds 1,000yds 10TD
1 19 6 3
2 28 21 14
3 16 17 16
4 13 16 4
5 10 13 8
6 6 9 2
7 4 2 9
8 2 4 5
9 1 1 3
10 0 1 3
11 0 0 1
12 0 0 0
13 1 0 1
Never 0 10 31


How about looking at the combined statistical analysis for a whole season of these top 100 receivers? This chart is the average yearly stats for each year played by the top 100 wideouts.
Note that player's numbers accumulated in their 17th seasons and beyond are excluded; only four players in the top 100 -- Tim Brown, Irving Fryar, Charlie Joiner and Jerry Rice -- played more than 16 years, and Rice's numbers -- 1,139 and 1,211 yards in his 17th and 18th seasons -- dramatically skewed the results.

TOP 100 RECEIVERS BY YEAR IN NFL, PER 16 GAMES PLAYED
YR REC YDS AVG TD
1 34 542 16.0 3.6
2 51 839 16.4 6.0
3 56 892 16.0 6.9
4 64 983 15.4 6.9
5 71 1093 15.4 7.9
6 69 1041 15.1 7.3
7 66 974 14.7 7.1
8 63 926 14.8 6.0
9 60 897 14.9 6.1
10 57 841 14.6 5.6
11 52 757 14.4 4.7
12 53 769 14.5 4.9
13 44 626 14.2 4.0
14 48 685 14.3 3.9
15 47 609 12.9 2.8
16 35 410 11.7 2.6

Draw your own conclusions. Sorry about the formatting, virtually impossible to get tables to align since posts eliminate extraneous spaces.

These stats are courtesy ESPN and Tristan H. Cockcroft.

Looking at the numbers, I would say there is something there to indicate year 3 being the year that many receivers "breakout". Where I tend to notice it is more on individual basis, as it doesnt effect all recevers.

Just like the sophomore slump. While many receivers tend to have a little drop in production, even if it is temporary in their second year, not all of them do.

True. You have to parse the numbers, as this is only the top 100 WR in NFL history. The argument can be made that the game has changed and the game as it has been the last 5 years is different from the game some of these guys played in their day. Would be interesting to compile the numbers from the past 10 years and see how the wideouts do in years 1-4. Wish I had an NFL almanac, always wanted one of those. Numbers just fascinate me.

I cant remember the website I got this from.....but, here it is:l

Let's look at the players that have broken out in their third years...

Javon Walker: 2004 Breakout year - Nearly doubled his receiving yardage from the 2003 season. He set career highs in yardage, receptions and TD's.

Ashley Lelie: 2004 Breakout year - Nearly 500 more yards receiving and 5 more TD's than the prior year.

Ronald Curry: 2004 Breakout year - Posted over 600 more yards and 6 TD's than the prior year.

Chris Chambers: 2003 Breakout year - He may have had a solid year 1, but in year 3 he posted even better numbers with 11 receiving TD's

Chad Johnson: 2003 Breakout year - He may have had a breakout in year 2, but in year 3 he posted even better numbers. 21 catches more and he doubled his TD production from the prior year

Reggie Wayne: 2003 Breakout year - He posted career highs in yardage, TD's and receptions

Plaxico Burress: 2002 Breakout year - He may have had a breakout in year 2, but in year 3 he posted even better numbers. 12 catches and nearly 325 more yards than the previous year

Laveranues Coles: 2002 Breakout year - 30 catches more than the previous year and nearly 400 more yards

Brian Finneran: 2002 Breakout year - 33 more catches, 340+ yards and 3 TD's more than the previous year

Tai Streets: 2002 Breakout year - 44 catches, 4 TD's and 400+ yards more than the previous year

Jerry Porter: 2002 Breakout year - 32 catches, 9 TD's and nearly 500 yards more than the previous year

Marty Booker: 2001 Breakout year - 53 catches, 6 TD's and 500+ yards more than the previous year


David Boston: 2001 Breakout year - OK, he may have had a breakout in year 2, but in year 3 he posted even better numbers. 27 catches and nearly 500 more yards than the previous year

Kevin Johnson: 2001 Breakout year - Saw career highs in catches, yards and TD's. 27 catches, 400+ yards and 9 TD's more than the previous year

Peerless Price: 2001 Breakout year - Saw career highs across the board. 4 more TD's than the previous year

Donald Hayes: 2000 Breakout year - nearly 750 yards and 55 more catches than the previous year

Albert Connell: 1999 Breakout year - nearly 650 yards and 34 more catches than the previous year. A career high of 7 TD's

Keith Poole: 1999 Breakout year - nearly 300 yards receiving more than the previous year and a career high of 6 TD's

Ike Hilliard: 1999 Breakout year - 21 catches and nearly 300 more yards than the previous season, he came within 4 yards of hitting the 1000 yard receiving mark

Bobby Engram: 1998 Breakout year - 600 yards and 3 TD's more than previous year

Keyshawn Johnson: 1998 Breakout year - Once again had fine seasons in years 1 or 2 but breakout year had 5 more TD's than previous year

Eric Moulds: 1998 Breakout year - 38 more receptions, 1000 more yards and 9 more TD's than previous year

Mushin Muhammad: 1998 Breakout year - 41 more catches, 600 more yards and 6 TD's more than previous year

Terrell Owens: 1998 Breakout year - 6 TD's more than previous year

Antonio Freeman: 1997 Breakout year - 3 TD's and 300 yards more than previous year

Joey Galloway: 1997 Breakout year - Well, he really had a good rookie year but had 5 more TD's in year 3

Rod Smith: 1997 Breakout year - 900 yards, 54 catches and 10 TD's more than previous year

Derrick Alexander: 1996 Breakout year - 47 catches and 9 TD's better than previous season

Charles Johnson: 1996 Breakout year - 600 yards and 3 TD's more than previous year

Curtis Conway: 1995 Breakout year - 500 more yards and 10 TD's more than previous year

Carl Pickens: 1994 Breakout year - 28 receptions, 500 yards and 5 TD's more than previous year

Willie Davis: 1992 Breakout year - 4 TD's more than previous year

Mark Carrier: 1989 Breakout year - 450 yards more receiving and 4 TD's more than previous season

Cris Carter: 1989 Breakout year - 5 TD's more than previous season

That's a pretty substantial list of players that had year three breakouts. The key is really knowing who is likely to breakout - obviosuly, it doesn't happen to all receivers but it does happen to receivers who are in the proper situations.

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Yeti's numbers.....

RECEIVERS BY YEAR IN NFL, PER 16 GAMES PLAYED
YR REC YDS AVG TD
1 34 542 16.0 3.6
2 51 839 16.4 6.0
3 56 892 16.0 6.9
4 64 983 15.4 6.9
5 71 1093 15.4 7.9
6 69 1041 15.1 7.3
7 66 974 14.7 7.1
8 63 926 14.8 6.0
9 60 897 14.9 6.1
10 57 841 14.6 5.6
11 52 757 14.4 4.7
12 53 769 14.5 4.9
13 44 626 14.2 4.0
14 48 685 14.3 3.9
15 47 609 12.9 2.8
16 35 410 11.7 2.6

Show me that even the BEST rookies suck (PERIOD) and the GOOD ones perform years 2 - 10, peaking in their 5th year.

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