This brings up something that has always peaked my interest. Could have brought this up in close calls, but those usually deal with 1st round picks. maybe this question should be on its' own, but quoting this statement seems perfect to bring it up now.

Miller and others have mentioned having a balanced team. This I have taken to mean taking a RB and a WR with the your first two picks, which is something I agree with generally, especially when we can look back with perfect 20/20 hindsight vision over the last few years.

What I am asking is everyones opinion on is this:

Do you look for steady production from both RB's and both WR's, or do you try to balance things by drafting Tomlinson as your RB 1 (steady production), and a Matt Forte (wild card) later as your RB2?

If you take Fitzgerald (steady) as your WR1, as opposed to Edwards (wild card), do you take what you consider to be the opposite as your WR2 when you make that pick?

If you feel you have 2 steady RB's with your first two picks, do you go for possible breakout WR's with your next picks, or do you still look for steady production from them also?

I guess what I am asking is: how does everyone like to balance safe and steady vs. risk and reward, in their starting line up? I like to balance these out myself, because I think you need to gamble and trust your hunches in order to win it all, but I can't wait to hear how everyone else thinks about this.

I dont like to take a wildcard as a starter because if he burns then you are screwed all season. If i do need to take a wildcard as a starter because his value is too good to pass then i like to get a steady veteran later in the draft just in case the rookie/wildcard is no good. Then there are different types of wild cards, due to injury prone, rookies, RBBC or weak qb situation/offensive line. I would rather take a guy i feel will get me solid numbers every week rather then a guy who could be a superstar or could suck. For example last year with the 3rd pick i passed on gore and went with addai since gore was coming off injury.

Figured this deserved it's own thread.

This is a great topic, I always try to find the right balance during a draft. I like to try to stay on the safe side the first couple rounds and take my chances in the middle rounds. If I can get a couple solid producers, I can then swing for the fences later on and if I hot I'm looking very good. if I don't, I didn't rick as much, and I still should have the solid safe picks to fall back on.

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Here is an article i wrote on this subject a couple yrs ago:

http://www.sofantasyfootball.com/nfl/f144/t10520/

Balance this, balance that. Risk Vs Reward. It's all hog wash. Merely an after thought of the draft. I say rank your players adjusting their position based on all these factors and then take the best available player who fits into your squad. If you do this, while keeping tabs on your targets and keeping on strategy to get them you'll be fine.
How many guys in the first 4 rounds are a BIG risk really?? How many are a guarenteed lock for steady production??
Go with your gut and you can brag at the end of the season about your predictions.
Trust your instincts Luke, but bury your feelings deep, or they could be made to serve the Emporer.

How many in the first 4 rounds are big risks?? oh, I'd say at least 1/2! Maybe more. Nothing is gaurenteed, but you sure as hell can minimize the amount of risk involved by taking proven guys and avoiding the risky highly hyped guys.

In reality, your not really answering the question though. You say to make you lists and and keep tabs on your targets and keep a strategy to get them. OK, that's kinda obvious, but what Millen is asking is should you attempt to get a balance, and what type of balance should you look for?? Your obviously going to make a list, and your obviously going to go after targets and try to come up with a strategy. So the question remains you should that strategy address balance? You say balance is an after thought of the draft, that is only the case for those who don't plan for it. Balance is usually one of my main focuses while drafting. If your not paying attention to this you can end up with either a safe, boring, and mediocre team with no real upside, or a go for broke, all risk, don't know what to count on team. For me, I'm never going to have either one, just not how I draft. I'll take my chances in a very calculated way. I know who the gambles I want are and identify them and try to get them. I also know the risks that simply are not worth it come draft day and will avoid them.

But to ignore balance all together and not worry about it until after the draft IMO is one of the bigger mistake a drafter can make.

Asuming we're talking about a 12 team league here, 4 rounds would consist of 48 players. You're saying nearly half of these 48 are risks?? I just don't see it. On the same note, you can't be guarenteed of production of the non risk players either. You talk about balance like you know who has the biggest chance of blowing up and becoming a star or becoming a total dud. Truth is, we have no freaking clue. We're guessing.
I'd say there are really only a handful of risky players like this in the 1st 4 rounds. Marshawn Lynch, Chad Johnson, Darren McFadden....and I can't really think of anyone else that I label instantly as high risk but with high rewards.
This is all why I come back to ranking your players. Calculate(guess) on a guys production based on all available facts and build your team. Fit those guys you label as risk/reward players in where you see fit and just draft!!
I think sometimes we spend too much time thinking about the draft. Yes it is important. Yes you should have a strategy. But the topic of balance just bounces right off me. Do you need a few risky high reward draft picks to win a league..NO. Do you need to balance risky picks with solid picks to be successful..NO. Just make solid picks and fill your starters. Take the most valuable player off the board that fits your squad best.

guess we differ here, I'll stick with my way, it's been pretty successful.

But if your right, and 44 of the top 48 players are low risk players, then everyone should have stud filled teams......too bad it never turns out that way.

Players in the first 4 rounds I would consider to carry an above average level of risk compared to their ADP:

• Marion Barber III
• Larry Johnson
• Marshawn Lynch
• Ryan Grant
• Andre Johnson
• Steve Smith
• Ronnie Brown
• Willie Parker
• Chad Johnson
• Plaxico Burress
• Reggie Bush
• Laurence Maroney
• Michael Turner
• Darren McFadden
• Earnest Graham
• Marvin Harrison

16 out of 48, and that leaves a few boarder line guys off the list. And that is not saying I would stay clear of these guys, just that I would take their relative risk factor into consideration while selecting my team, and that I would think twice before selecting one of these players in the first 2 rounds.

Yeah you're probably right. I think I was "Anger Posting". I guess I should wait to post to my friends in the fantasy community until after I have flipped shit on my employees. I'll think it through next time. lol

I anger post all the time

Risk Vs. Reward is problematic. You never know, you can never know, but sometimes you just know. You know?

Oh I know....You know???

I'm not always right, I just always think I'm right!!

Your entitled to your opinion, that's what makes these discussions fun.

Dude

ya know, that is funny

Great article Miller. Just what I was looking for, thanks.

First, I don't think you have to take a wr, and a RB in your first two picks to be balanced.

Balanced to me means you have consistant points coming from all facets of your team. Not necessarily the same player week in and week out either. You need solid production from all at some point if you are going to win.

That is why I no longer have a set stratagy for a draft. I don't target only certain players. Instead I go with the flow and see how the draft progresses. I also think this year, RBs are so deep, that you can wait to get your RB, and still get solid production.

Ex. in our current mock draft, I got two stud WRs in the first two rounds, and pick up solid rbs later. All will provide solid points throughout the year, but only one would be considered a stud (Moss).

I try to make sure I am getting some pts in all facets. It is one reason I may take a defense earlier than most, just to make sure i get pts there. I won one of our redraft leagues one year thanks to my defense. It can happen.

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