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Old 07-08-2008, 06:19 PM   #1
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Schedule Crunchers : San Diego Chargers

SCHEDULE CRUNCHERS


San Diego Chargers
AFC West


Moving on now to the AFC West. We know from previous installments that the AFC West plays the AFC East this year. We also know how weak the AFC East is defensively. This should point to a good fantasy year for West teams because their own division isn't too tough either. Or is it?

Division : AFC West
Yards Allowed Per Game

Chiefs : 319 (13th)
Chargers : 320 (14th)
Broncos : 336 (19th)
Raiders : 342 (22nd)

Points Allowed Per Game
Chargers : 18 (5th)
Chiefs : 21 (14th)
Raiders : 25 (27th)
Broncos : 26 (28th)

Although these numbers aren't great, their not as awful as previously advertised. The Chargers and Chiefs are in the upper half while the Broncos and Raiders are in the lower half. Let's see how the rest of the schedule shapes up for LT, Gates, and company.Below you will find the opponents and their defensive ranking based on a combination of points allowed and yards allowed from the 2007 season. These are the 2 stats that typically can indicate how well fantasy players will score against any given defense.


Week 1 : Panthers (16th)
Week 2 : Broncos (23rd)
Week 3 : Jets (18th)
Week 4 : Raiders (25th)
Week 5 : Dolphins (30th)
Week 6 : Patriots (4th)
Week 7 : Bills (24th)
Week 8 : Saints (26th)
Bye
Week 10 : Chiefs (14th)
Week 11 : Steelers (1st)
Week 12 : Colts (2nd)
Week 13 : Falcons (31st)
Week 14 : Raiders (25th)
Week 15 : Chiefs (14th)
Week 16 : Bucs (3rd )
Week 17 : Broncos (23rd)

Strength Of Schedule Index : 17.83

Fantasy Playoffs

Raiders (25th) Chiefs (14th) Bucs (3rd)

Fantasy Playoffs Strength Index : 14



San Diego has a player rated #1 at 2 of the 4 key positions in fantasy football. LT and Gates are both beasts in nearly any scoring format. This schedule scares me a bit though. They have the toughest road of any team examined so far and of any team in their division. It's the later portion of the season that is rough. Having to go back to back with Pitt and Indy is scary. The fantasy playoffs don't get much better either. They have 2 games against division rivals and then face the best defense out of the NFC in the Bucs. This could be the year LT falls from that coveted #1 spot. It could also be the turning point in the TE position. The gap could continue to narrow again this year.

Last edited by ExperiencedRookie; 07-15-2008 at 05:49 PM.
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Old 07-09-2008, 05:57 PM   #2
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With some players, schedule can be ignored, and LT and Gates are two of those players. Even against Indy and Pit I would expect decent to good numbers. One thing that jumps out at me is the ease of the early schedule. That should be noted as if gives you the opportunity to pick up guys like Rivers and Chambers in the draft and let them get off to a good start, then deal them if the schedule is shaping up to be rough.

Also, you may want to check the schedule, they can't be playing the phins two weeks in a row (thought I bet they wish they could!!)
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Old 07-09-2008, 06:14 PM   #3
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Originally Posted by Miller_time View Post
One thing that jumps out at me is the ease of the early schedule. That should be noted as if gives you the opportunity to pick up guys like Rivers and Chambers in the draft and let them get off to a good start, then deal them if the schedule is shaping up to be rough.
I totally agree there. Outside of the Patriots, their first 10 games look pretty easy. Week 10 would be when I would start to try to unload either of those guys.
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Old 07-09-2008, 06:18 PM   #4
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Originally Posted by Miller_time View Post
With some players, schedule can be ignored, and LT and Gates are two of those players.
I don't think it can be completely ignored. I think great deals could be made using both of these players around the week 10 mark. It wouldn't surprise me 1 bit to find out that Gates and LT's numbers were down in the 2nd half of the season. They have one of the most difficult weeks 11-16. This is fantasy crunch time. I feel that there could be great deals that could win fantasy championships made in week 10 involving both of these players.
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Old 07-14-2008, 09:38 PM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ExperiencedRookie View Post
I don't think it can be completely ignored. I think great deals could be made using both of these players around the week 10 mark. It wouldn't surprise me 1 bit to find out that Gates and LT's numbers were down in the 2nd half of the season. They have one of the most difficult weeks 11-16. This is fantasy crunch time. I feel that there could be great deals that could win fantasy championships made in week 10 involving both of these players.
Nice Work on player and schedule analysis, ER. You have become my main man as far as looking for values and these schedule crunchers have some great insight as far as trading and values throughout the year. You have punched up strength of schedule into a valuable commodity for us here at Sports Outlaw this year.
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Old 07-14-2008, 10:12 PM   #6
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Originally Posted by Coachnorm View Post
Nice Work on player and schedule analysis, ER. You have become my main man as far as looking for values and these schedule crunchers have some great insight as far as trading and values throughout the year. You have punched up strength of schedule into a valuable commodity for us here at Sports Outlaw this year.
Thank you for the kind words. I think the finished product of all the schedules up against one another will give a TON of insight to who may or may not be in for a big season.
I think as outlaws together we should do a Defensive Mock Draft. The focus would be to rank all the teams defenses starting at the top not based on fantasy value but on overall defensive strength. This would really help us determine who the risers or fallers will be this year. There are many things that come into play with strength of schedule besides just the 07 numbers. Defensive offseason acquisitions and draft picks can easily impact a team.
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