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Old 06-14-2006, 11:39 AM   #81
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Da Bomb
for the record, that would make horn the #9 WR in any normal season (last three year's stats averaged). is that really what you expect?
Why can't he be the #9 WR???? Really, he was a top 10 staple before the mess that was NO last year. I don't see why anyone should be shocked if he ends up there again. Before last year, he had played 5 yrs with NO, and averaged 87 rec, 1,258 yds, and 9 TD's. So my predictions are all at or below those averages. Last year simply can not be taken into full account IMO. he was injured and look at the rest of the team....... Also, since he joined the saints, in seasons where he played all 16 games he has never been under 83 rec, 1265 yds, and 7 TD's. So if plays all 16, why would the numbers I predict be unrealistic and shocking? So he's 34, he's a WR, plenty of WR's have put up number at that age. After looking at the numbers, I like the pick even more!!
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Old 06-14-2006, 11:55 AM   #82
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Miller_time
Why can't he be the #9 WR???? Really, he was a top 10 staple before the mess that was NO last year. I don't see why anyone should be shocked if he ends up there again. Before last year, he had played 5 yrs with NO, and averaged 87 rec, 1,258 yds, and 9 TD's. So my predictions are all at or below those averages. Last year simply can not be taken into full account IMO. he was injured and look at the rest of the team....... Also, since he joined the saints, in seasons where he played all 16 games he has never been under 83 rec, 1265 yds, and 7 TD's. So if plays all 16, why would the numbers I predict be unrealistic and shocking? So he's 34, he's a WR, plenty of WR's have put up number at that age. After looking at the numbers, I like the pick even more!!
oh really? find me one other 34 year old receiver who has hit 80, 1200, and 9. i know jerry rice didnt. so im trying to figure out what "plenty" of WRs also have.

interesting side note, did anyoen else realize marvin harrison is 34 also? yikes. maybe mike is on to something.

cant believe a couple of guys who are still sitting there available for these guys at the turn. so far, i hated being at the 10 spot last draft, and now in PPR i am loving the 10 spot. figures.
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Old 06-14-2006, 11:57 AM   #83
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Talk about a frenzy on receivers. I find myself once again drafting T.J. Houmadadooda. I think I have actually drafted this guy in every mock draft I have done. I considered a couple other positions but feared there would be abolutely zero receivers by my next pick.

Sorry to hold this thing up this morning, but I felt safe with the two guys on my pre-draft. However, they just so happened to go in order with the two picks before me
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Old 06-14-2006, 12:01 PM   #84
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Miller_time
Good looking out, forgot about that, Edge shuld catch a decent # of balls out in the desert, makes is a even bett pick IMO.
There is another thing that you should factor in with Edge this year. In one of my keeper leagues I have had Edge for years. He is one of the main reasons I always make it to the playoffs each year in that league. Ironicly he is also one of the reasons I get douched in those playoffs. The Colts as they get close to the playoffs and clinch early like they usually do start to rest players especially Edge. Edge the last 3 weeks last year was a 10 point performance/ a 5 point performance/ and 0 points sitting out the championship game as usual. So while he has been incredible to have during the season he has been a fantasy playoff liability.

This year in Arizona he should be a much better FF playoff back as Arizona will still be battling for the playoffs , most likely.
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Old 06-14-2006, 12:04 PM   #85
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Da Bomb

interesting side note, did anyoen else realize marvin harrison is 34 also? yikes. maybe mike is on to something.
.
You can bet I have noticed. I actually noticed what seemed to be a changing of the guard during last season. 4 years ago, Harrison was regularly ending games with double digit receptions. The receptions are going down every year. Last year, it seemed to me that although Harrison still had very good stats, the Colts looked to Wayne when they "needed" a reception. Against Pittsbugh in January, when the Steelers defense was repeatedly hitting them right in the mouth on every play, it was Wayne who was on the receiving end of most of the passes.

The Colts are going to find themselves in closer games this year, and I just think it will be Wayne that Manning looks to more often.
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Old 06-14-2006, 12:06 PM   #86
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Da Bomb
oh really? find me one other 34 year old receiver who has hit 80, 1200, and 9. i know jerry rice didnt. so im trying to figure out what "plenty" of WRs also have.

interesting side note, did anyoen else realize marvin harrison is 34 also? yikes. maybe mike is on to something.

cant believe a couple of guys who are still sitting there available for these guys at the turn. so far, i hated being at the 10 spot last draft, and now in PPR i am loving the 10 spot. figures.
for the record, i found cris carter had one season where he just qualified. no jerry rice, no tim brown, no rod smith, no michael irvin, and definitely no carl pickens.
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Old 06-14-2006, 12:07 PM   #87
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man, i am loving the team i couldve had at the 10 spot in this draft, with PPR. it figures.
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Old 06-14-2006, 12:08 PM   #88
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Carl Pickens, LOL. Talk about a forgotten name.
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Old 06-14-2006, 12:18 PM   #89
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike
Carl Pickens, LOL. Talk about a forgotten name.
my first fantasy sleeper-stud. i used to make my living by taking some QB-WR combo late in the draft every year and hoping they pan out. somehow i nailed pickens/blake, owens/garcia, and boston/plummer during all of their breakout years. maybe i should go back to that strategy this year. i wonder who that could be.

evans/losman? muhammad/grossman? krob/bj? clayton/simms? wilford/leftwich? bennett/volek? kennison/green? mccardell/rivers? byrant/smith?

hold on, i think i just threw up in my mouth.
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Old 06-14-2006, 12:21 PM   #90
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Really wishing you would have spelled out the name Brad Johnson right now, LOL
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Old 06-14-2006, 12:22 PM   #91
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Roy/Kitna
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Old 06-14-2006, 12:23 PM   #92
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Marino/Duper

Ah wait, can only do that on Tecmo Bowl now.
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Old 06-14-2006, 12:30 PM   #93
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Da Bomb
for the record, i found cris carter had one season where he just qualified. no jerry rice, no tim brown, no rod smith, no michael irvin, and definitely no carl pickens.
I guess you forgot about Galloway then huh??? 34 yrs old, 83 rec, 1287 yds, 10 TD's! Want to give me another softball??

OK, now that we are done looking at the narrow scope of 34 yds old, 80 rec, 1200 yds, and 9 TD's, let's look at the real picture. Aging WR's who have had good years in their early to mid 30's. Let's go 31 yrs or older, many have had great yrs at 31, so we will bump it to 32 (and this is just players that played last year + Rice):

Jimmy Smith - 33 yrs old - 80-1027-7
35 yr - 74 - 1172 - 6
36 yr - 70 - 1023 - 6
Bruce - 32 yr - 89-1292-6
Galloway - 34 - 83 - 1287 - 10
Harrison - 32 - 86 - 1113 - 15
33 - 82 - 1146 - 12
Horn - 32 - 94 - 1399 - 11
Kenninson - 32 - 62 - 1086 - 8
33 - 68 - 1102 - 5
McCardell - 33 - 84 - 1174 - 8
35 - 70 - 917 - 9
R. Smith - 32 - 89 - 1027 - 5
34 - 79 - 1144 - 7
35 - 79 - 1105 - 6

And since you brough up Rice, give me a focking break, here are just 4 years that Rice put up 34 yrs old or older:
34 - 108 - 1254 - 8
36 - 82 - 1157 - 9
39 - 83 - 1139 - 9
40 - 92 - 1211 - 7

There is just 9 names, 8 of which were still in the league as of last year. The biggest question mark for Horn will be to stay healthy, if he does that, expect a nice year out of the old man!!
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Old 06-14-2006, 01:10 PM   #94
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Who is madshooter? Was going to send them a PM/Email to let them know they was up and realized I have no idea who it is.
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Old 06-14-2006, 01:26 PM   #95
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Let me ask a really stupid question....where is the thread or does anyone have a link to the actual mock you guys are doing? I'd like to see it round by round. Thanks.
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Old 06-14-2006, 01:30 PM   #96
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Go here - MockDrafts

You will see a link to "sportsoutlaw.com Mock draft #2 in the private mocks section. You can view everything in there.
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Old 06-14-2006, 01:44 PM   #97
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Miller_time
I guess you forgot about Galloway then huh??? 34 yrs old, 83 rec, 1287 yds, 10 TD's! Want to give me another softball??

OK, now that we are done looking at the narrow scope of 34 yds old, 80 rec, 1200 yds, and 9 TD's, let's look at the real picture. Aging WR's who have had good years in their early to mid 30's. Let's go 31 yrs or older, many have had great yrs at 31, so we will bump it to 32 (and this is just players that played last year + Rice):

Jimmy Smith - 33 yrs old - 80-1027-7
35 yr - 74 - 1172 - 6
36 yr - 70 - 1023 - 6
Bruce - 32 yr - 89-1292-6
Galloway - 34 - 83 - 1287 - 10
Harrison - 32 - 86 - 1113 - 15
33 - 82 - 1146 - 12
Horn - 32 - 94 - 1399 - 11
Kenninson - 32 - 62 - 1086 - 8
33 - 68 - 1102 - 5
McCardell - 33 - 84 - 1174 - 8
35 - 70 - 917 - 9
R. Smith - 32 - 89 - 1027 - 5
34 - 79 - 1144 - 7
35 - 79 - 1105 - 6

And since you brough up Rice, give me a focking break, here are just 4 years that Rice put up 34 yrs old or older:
34 - 108 - 1254 - 8
36 - 82 - 1157 - 9
39 - 83 - 1139 - 9
40 - 92 - 1211 - 7

There is just 9 names, 8 of which were still in the league as of last year. The biggest question mark for Horn will be to stay healthy, if he does that, expect a nice year out of the old man!!
for the record, galloway turned 34 with only a few games left last season, and none of the rest of those guys were 34 and put up 80/1200/9, which was the only point i was trying to make.

im willing to accept that horn could go for like 70/1150/7. i think those are modest expectations to count on for him, and maybe that makes him a solid 4th rounder. i just think his time in the top 10 has come and gone. he'll make for a nice WR2 and a very good WR3 if he stays healthy. but hes getting old, has a new QB (and RB) to mesh with, and has shown signs of injury and slowing down the last two years. i dont think we can just ignore that and put horn in his prime and expect top 10 numbers from him.

sorry, i think the only point was that people tend to make some kind of ridiculous predictions and projections. there are like 15 RBs with "top 5 potential" and at least 25 WRs with "top 10 potential," and if everyone scored each year even close to what they projected for their players, every record in the league would get broken.

put it this way - if you made an actual list of your top 25 WRs this year, where would horn fall? would he actually be #9, or would he be more like 15 such that you expect 10-15 guys to finish ahead of his 80/1200/9? only six guys in the entire league hit those plateaus last year. thats why im wondering. are you just very very high on horn, or are you over-projecting?

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Old 06-14-2006, 02:12 PM   #98
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LMAO!!!! Now it matters when Galloway turned 34??? He was 34 in the year he hit those numbers, your killing me trying to toss that one out.

For one, I don't project stats for that very reason, I project potential. Horn has a realalistic shot to hit those numbers, he also has rick factors involved that place others higher then him as well. Stating I can see him do that, and placing him in my top 10 are 2 different things. Personally anyone that projects stats are wasting their time. i look at potential and histories, and base my ranking based on that. Can Horn crack thr top 10 again, yep, do I rank him top 10, not quite. He comes in at 16 on my rankings. If you got all hung up on me predicting those numbers don't, there not a prediction, they are numbers you could possibly expect, two different things. I took Horn right where I think he should be drafted, no before, and not after. Just expected value on this guy.
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Old 06-14-2006, 02:20 PM   #99
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike
Go here - MockDrafts

You will see a link to "sportsoutlaw.com Mock draft #2 in the private mocks section. You can view everything in there.
Suggestion: incorperate this in your sig for the length of the mock. Then it will appear at the start and periodicly throughout the mock for those of us who drop by to observe.
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Old 06-14-2006, 02:30 PM   #100
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good idea, done.
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