[article] Projectionists Of The World, Unite

Mike · 06-29-2006, 08:45 PM

http://www.sportsoutlaw.com/projectionists-world.html

By Zach Law

Quote:

Before I begin this week’s rant, I’ll pass on a little story about my trip to Gulf Shores, Alabama. Yes, there actually is beach in the state of Alabama, and it is quite nice. A nine-year-old girl walked by our canopy and yelled two words to an unseen boy. "You’re stupid!"
Most women take half their lives to figure that out.
Men are stupid...................

Da Bomb · 07-01-2006, 04:31 PM

if you ask me, this article is whats stupid. zach probably rushed right on through it in a half hour so he could spend another evening making a valuable rankings list.

you act as the projections are just people making up numbers and throwing them out there. for some, they could be. for others, there is much precision that goes into a projections system including but not limited to consideration for offensive line, defense, schedule, depth at position, historical YPC, offensive system, coaching preference, number of touches expected historically, and as many more things i could name too.

projections, when done correctly, can include a vast amount of scientific and mathematical insight, far beyond what you consider to just be "guesswork." when i do my projections, 4 out of 5 players, maybe even 9 out of 10, are simply projecting to within a 10% differential, plus or minus, from their last few years of production. only very rarely is someone projected for either a big dropoff (usually age, injury, or losing playing time) or a big jump (careful examination of age and past upside with a special eye towards yards per touch and touches and VERY rarely an added gut-shot feel).

i could look at your idea of ranking players without numbers and also think its a waste of time. i could say youre just ranking the players based on how good you think they are, how talented, and how well you'd like to see them perform on upside without really considering how they've performed historically or the intricacies of the team. but im not naive like that. many people who rank consider most or all of the things i consider when i do my projections, just without putting numbers to it.

for me, im a math minded guy, and it makes sense to put numbers to something when its possible to do so. if i was playing cards, i would put numbers to the odds too, to give me the best chance of winning. i'll still come up short plenty, but if i play the odds that exist, i have a great shot at winning more often than not.

projections arent for everyone. neither are numberless rankings. but to suggest that either system is just a waste of time done by mindless people who are just throwing things out there... that is just asinine.

if you ask me, people on a site like this reading fantasy football articles in june are probably guys who are going to take the time to consider whats important when making their projections and/or rankings. they'll take their time making projections or rankings because its june and july, football is a few months away, and it prepares us to win our leagues.

the only one who has really wasted their time in this whole process... that was you and the 20 minutes or so you apparently spent on that article.

Mike · 07-01-2006, 05:59 PM

I could see that above post being expanded on a little and becoming a "pro" projection article.

:challenge:

Taz · 07-01-2006, 06:55 PM

What was that I heard??????????

Sounded like a gauntlet to me

Da Bomb · 07-01-2006, 08:46 PM

whats to expand? i just spent as much time as zach with three times as much good info.

Da Bomb · 07-01-2006, 08:48 PM

besides, im not really pro-projections. im more just anti-asinine articles. i wouldve made the same comments if someone wrote an article about making rankings that blabbed on for awhile without really saying anything.

Da Bomb · 07-02-2006, 12:42 PM

KillerFins · 07-02-2006, 10:51 PM

Projections aren't stupid, they can be very useful. Now, if you go by nothing else but your own projections then you will be in trouble. I get much more out of it by being 'forced' to quantify a players value. You might think that a RB should be bumped down your list because he "doesn't catch much balls", but when you look at the numbers you see that just isn't the case. It forces at you to look at ecah player's past before you can accurately predict their future. Sure you will be more wrong than you are right, but not as wrong as those that didn't bother to take the time to do them.

zach_law · 07-05-2006, 10:09 AM

Asinine = Da Bomb's word of the week. Call me that one more time and you get a set of steak knives.

Da Bomb, are you using your projections to compete in a high-stakes league, like the WCOFF, or your local friends league?

Remember, this is a hobby for most of us, and therefore supposed to be fun. I was having a little fun with the projectionists. I didn't mean any harm.


07-01-2006, 06:55 PM	#4
Taz I Hate the Eagles Join Date: Mar 2006 Location: NJ Posts: 5,693 vCash: 22154 Donate	What was that I heard?????????? Sounded like a gauntlet to me __________________ We strive to bring you the best info on the net.


07-02-2006, 12:42 PM	#7
Da Bomb Richest Vman Alive Forum Leader Join Date: May 2006 Location: Chicago Posts: 11,142 vCash: 149698542 Donate Blog Entries: 18	lol

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07-01-2006, 04:31 PM	#2
Da Bomb Richest Vman Alive Forum Leader Join Date: May 2006 Location: Chicago Posts: 11,142 vCash: 149698542 Donate Blog Entries: 18	if you ask me, this article is whats stupid. zach probably rushed right on through it in a half hour so he could spend another evening making a valuable rankings list. you act as the projections are just people making up numbers and throwing them out there. for some, they could be. for others, there is much precision that goes into a projections system including but not limited to consideration for offensive line, defense, schedule, depth at position, historical YPC, offensive system, coaching preference, number of touches expected historically, and as many more things i could name too. projections, when done correctly, can include a vast amount of scientific and mathematical insight, far beyond what you consider to just be "guesswork." when i do my projections, 4 out of 5 players, maybe even 9 out of 10, are simply projecting to within a 10% differential, plus or minus, from their last few years of production. only very rarely is someone projected for either a big dropoff (usually age, injury, or losing playing time) or a big jump (careful examination of age and past upside with a special eye towards yards per touch and touches and VERY rarely an added gut-shot feel). i could look at your idea of ranking players without numbers and also think its a waste of time. i could say youre just ranking the players based on how good you think they are, how talented, and how well you'd like to see them perform on upside without really considering how they've performed historically or the intricacies of the team. but im not naive like that. many people who rank consider most or all of the things i consider when i do my projections, just without putting numbers to it. for me, im a math minded guy, and it makes sense to put numbers to something when its possible to do so. if i was playing cards, i would put numbers to the odds too, to give me the best chance of winning. i'll still come up short plenty, but if i play the odds that exist, i have a great shot at winning more often than not. projections arent for everyone. neither are numberless rankings. but to suggest that either system is just a waste of time done by mindless people who are just throwing things out there... that is just asinine. if you ask me, people on a site like this reading fantasy football articles in june are probably guys who are going to take the time to consider whats important when making their projections and/or rankings. they'll take their time making projections or rankings because its june and july, football is a few months away, and it prepares us to win our leagues. the only one who has really wasted their time in this whole process... that was you and the 20 minutes or so you apparently spent on that article.


07-01-2006, 05:59 PM	#3
Mike who me? Admin Join Date: Mar 2004 Location: L.A. (Lower Arkansas) Posts: 29,960 vCash: 455175 Donate Blog Entries: 18	I could see that above post being expanded on a little and becoming a "pro" projection article. :challenge:


07-01-2006, 08:46 PM	#5
Da Bomb Richest Vman Alive Forum Leader Join Date: May 2006 Location: Chicago Posts: 11,142 vCash: 149698542 Donate Blog Entries: 18	whats to expand? i just spent as much time as zach with three times as much good info.


07-01-2006, 08:48 PM	#6
Da Bomb Richest Vman Alive Forum Leader Join Date: May 2006 Location: Chicago Posts: 11,142 vCash: 149698542 Donate Blog Entries: 18	besides, im not really pro-projections. im more just anti-asinine articles. i wouldve made the same comments if someone wrote an article about making rankings that blabbed on for awhile without really saying anything.


07-02-2006, 10:51 PM	#8
KillerFins Outlaw Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 360 vCash: 15664 Donate	Projections aren't stupid, they can be very useful. Now, if you go by nothing else but your own projections then you will be in trouble. I get much more out of it by being 'forced' to quantify a players value. You might think that a RB should be bumped down your list because he "doesn't catch much balls", but when you look at the numbers you see that just isn't the case. It forces at you to look at ecah player's past before you can accurately predict their future. Sure you will be more wrong than you are right, but not as wrong as those that didn't bother to take the time to do them.


07-05-2006, 10:09 AM	#9
zach_law Outlaw Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 234 vCash: 15459 Donate	Asinine = Da Bomb's word of the week. Call me that one more time and you get a set of steak knives. Da Bomb, are you using your projections to compete in a high-stakes league, like the WCOFF, or your local friends league? Remember, this is a hobby for most of us, and therefore supposed to be fun. I was having a little fun with the projectionists. I didn't mean any harm.