sorry, long read ahead as i process this all in my head.

ive posted about this league before. my team is a mess. i drafted manning 1st and a bunch of WRs, and never had a good 2nd RB... spent all season tryign to trade for one.... traded AWAY addai for j jones.... traded for alexander and then traded HIM away a few weeks ago for andre johnson (who is the #1 WR and its PPR but still)... so yeah, its a mess. i snuck in as the 6 seed. my team still scores a lot usually but its really hit or miss.

LINEUP -- 1 qb, 2 rb, 2 wr, 1 rb/wr (i almost always play wr at flex), 1 te, 1 k, 1 d

SCORING -- 1 per 10 rush or 10 rec, 1 per 25 pass... -3 for lost fumble or INT... 6 for every TD... 1 per rec... 3 point bonus for 100 rush or rec or 300 pass

QB - P Manning, Kitna
before you just plug in manning automatically and move on, im actually leaning kitna who i picked up just for this occasion. mannings been just average of late, and jacksonville at home has been absolutely killer to QBs so far this season. no games over 10 points all year, and several in the negatives. kitna is going to pass a lot vs minnesota, and our pass D is average at best. kitna may throw a pick or two, but i also feel like hes got a good shot at 300 yards, and a few scores hopefully. would i be totally crazy to bench peyton in my playoff game? ... also, Roeth, Leinart, Garcia, and Garrard are avialable.

RB - Westbrook, J Jones, M Barber, Lundy ... C Houston
yeah its a mess, i know. westbrook is obviously in. then i need a second. ive succesfully managed to bench marion barbers 2 TDs each of the last three weeks beause i have this nagging feeling that the week i finally play him, hes giong to get like 30 yards and 0 TDs. ive actually been playing lundy lately because of the PPR, but hes gotten single digit carries the last three weeks in a row. im at a complete loss here. it could be any of the three. and its not like dallas at the saints is a killer matchup, though hollis thomas being out helps. i would probably be leaning barber right now and just hoping for the TD. ... also ced houston and mike bell are available on waivers. fason too. and fargas. actually im dropping owen daniels and picking up cedric houston right now. wow, hes intriguing. does he get touches? buffalo is the 2nd worst D against RBs. the primary RB against buffalo has scored at least 14, usually a lot more, since week 4. they give up a lot of catches. but wow, that could be a goose egg too. yikes.

WR - A Johnson, Driver, Boldin, Chambers, Evans
obviously the strength of my team by far. andre is starting for sure. so is driver. i pretty much never bench those two guys. but because my RBs are so worthless, i play a 3rd WR at flex (and most of these WRs outscore most RBs anyways). i could always play both dallas RBs, one at RB and one at flex, and bench both of these guys... but i feel like thats wasting a starting spot. so its a question of which of the 3 WRs then. obviously from my last email, chambers is the lowest on my totem pole and while his name tempts me, i have lost a couple games by buying into him. boldin is home vs seattle and evans is @ jets. boldin pisses me off. i thought he was a huge steal. instead hes had 3 huge games and a whole lot of mediocre ones. he basically gets 4 catches every week for about 60 yards. last week he didnt even get that. evans had a bad two game stretch vs NE and GB (both good corner teams) at the end of october... otherwise he had 4 games before that and 4 after with at least 5 catches and at least 50 yards. i am leaning towards him as the steadier option (who wouldve guessed that over boldin) because i need sure points and cant take a possible 4 point stinker.

TE - Crumpler, Witten, O Daniels
i picked up owen daniels earlier this week and put him in my lineup, but im thinking thats probably a dumb call. esp since i already have 1 or possible 2 other texans. sick. wittens had 3 catches each of the last four weeks for around 30-50 yards, no TDs. crumpler was awesome for awhile but the last few weeks he only gets 1-2 catches a week, though last week he had the long TD (on my bench of course). im leaning toward alge on this one. witten probably only gets 7 to alge's at least 3-4, and i think alge's upside is worth those few points.

K - waivers
i pick up a flava of the week. this week right now i have picked up jason hanson home vs vikes, should be good for a few FGs and its in a dome. probably will stick with him unless you feel strongly about scobee, longwell, rackers, or akers. also if i do play kitna, i like having hanson too sinc ei know detroit will score and im probably covered either way then.

D - waivers
ditto kickers. what sucks is that there arent any great matchups for me this week, and my opponent has pitt home vs cle which is gonna kill me. right now i have cincy home vs oakland. obviously the raiders give up a lot of points to opposing Ds, lots of sacks and turnovers, and they dont score much. points allowed is worth a good deal in this league (under 14 = 4... under 7 = 7... shutout = 10) and the bengals have essentially piched back to back shutouts. i think i just talked myself into liking that option a lot. i will probably stick with them unless you feel strongly about.... arizona vs seattle, jets vs buff, tenn @ hou, or stl vs chi.

sorry thats long, hopefully you skimmed if you didnt have much time. it was a lot of me talking it through as much as anythign else.

heres how im leaning... kitna... westbrook, houston... a johnson, driver, evans... crumpler... hanson... cinci.

thats sick. an eagle, a jet, two lions, a texan, a packer, a falcon, and a bengal. shoot me now.

lucky for me, the guy im playing is starting trent green vs balt, sjax vs chi so i like those. he also has housh, wayne, glenn, deuce, heap, vinatieri, pitt D so im going to need every point i can get. yikes.

thanks ahead of time for plowing through all that and giving me any insight or tips...

Let me get my reading glasses for this one.

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First, I know I will be shot at like you, but I too would lean to Kitna this week. I see Indy trying to run more, and more importantly, Jax seems to have his number. Manning will score..but I think the potential for higher score is with Kitna.

Okay, I can see your concern. I would however suggest you really, really think about Barber, especially against the saints. I am in a Ppr league where Barber is outscoring Jones. In fact, I have started Barber as my only rb for a few weeks now and have averaged 18-19pts. I would seriously think Barber and Westbrook for this week. You could always look at Houston as the flex.

I fully agree with Johnson and Driver. I would then lean to Evans as the flex if you don't go Houston.

I would lean to Alge as well. Witten was hot when Romo first took over, but he is more focussed on Owens and wrs now. Daniels has been hit or miss, in playoffs, I prefer more steady scoring..and when Atlanta passes, it is usually to Crumpler

Hanson is a good option, I have grabbed him in some leagues lately as well.

I like Cincy vs. Raiders...as they get alot of turnovers, and are pressuring the QB more. Tenn vs. Houston I like as well. Heck, StL against a lousy Grossman may be gold.

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Expert on nothing, opinionated on everything...

Manning would be my quarterback for sure, as discussed in the Titans Thread.

At running back, it would be Julius Jones and Brian Westbrook, factoring in points per reception.

With the flex spot I would go with Marion Barber. I don't think the Saints have a chance in hell at stopping the run this week. (I am flip flopping right now between him and Cedric Houston)

Crumpler at Tight end

Receiver would be Andre Johnson and Donald Driver

kicker - Hanson

Rams vs. Grossman....I mean Chicago.

I'm really having a hard time with the Kitna over Peyton thing. Just when you think you find a reason that Peyton will not have a good game, he blows up on you.

I do think you should start Barber and Houston (really pay attentiopn to the inactives here as Mangini is really trying to do his Shanahan impression lately).

As to receivers, I am leary of Evans against a resurgent Jets defense. Also I can see Seattle jumping out to an early lead against AZ and Leinart having to throw a lot. I lean towards Boldin.

Have to go with Crumpler, IMO.

Kicker and defense are crapshoots, so I think you are fine.

Mike, why would JJ be on your radar when factoring in PPR? he has what 6-7 receptions all year?

Houston has caught 4 balls in the last two weeks.

i actually like ur linup, no matter what temas they are from

I am not super confident in Barber getting a ton of work in this game, and I see some easy running for Julius Jones.

i agree with mike on julius jones

i dont see any way i can be comfortable playing julius jones. hes getting me like 60 yards and no catches, and hes not even getting more carries than barber anymore. i dont see how playing jones over barber can be a good choice. cant rationalize it to myself. ive been faithfully playing jones, and i cant do it again until he has a decent game. hes averaging 6 fantasy points a game over the last five games (since i traded for him lol).

current leanings...
qb - kitna 52% vs manning 48%
rb1 - westbrook 100%
rb2 - houston 80% vs mbarber 20%
wr1 - a johnson 100%
wr2 - driver 100%
flex - evans / m barber / boldin ?????
k - hanson
d - cincy

so im pretty sure im playing houston unless theres some weird late news out of jets camp. that leaves me having to make a killer call at QB, and no idea what im doing at flex.

Told ya only you and I would think that way on Kitna!

I am sorry, but I would not lean on any NYJ rb for a playoff game. Yes, he exploded last week, but Mangini has already come out and said he is still tweeking his rotation. I think you are much better off with Barber, who has scored at least one TD the last few weeks. Heck the last two or three he has scored 2. He is also getting more rush yds than Jones lately.
As for your flex....I can see the Bolding argument. I would still lean to Evans...but the potential for both is about the same.

Good luck!

the news on yahoo says that houston is supposed to be the primary carrier this week. and the primary carrier against buffalo has had very nice numbers the last 6-8 weeks, so i think i need to give houston a shot.

im also thinking i need to give barber a shot. hes scored a td in 9 of his 12 games, with 4 multiple td games, and he usually gets about 4-8 points from yardage and receptions. that means that theres about a 25% chance i get only 4-8 from him... a 42% chance i get 10-14 from him... and a 33% chance i get 16-20 from him (like four of his last five games).

with both boldin and evans, the average game has been around 5 catches, 50 yards. 10 points. both of them have had a few huge games. both of them have also had like 2-4 point games.

at this point i feel that the goose egg potential is simply greater for either of them than for houston or barber. i cant play for the WR upside. if i do, and i pick wrong, im done. when a WR has a huge game, you score like 30 or 40 points from them. but if theyre quiet its like 3. i need my likely double digits each from houston and barber i think.

so that would leave...

rb - westbrook, barber
wr - a johnson, driver
te - crumpler
k - hanson
d - cincy

qb - ???

thats my only question left. kitna manning. manning kitna. while it looks up front that kitnas got a way better matchup, its not as disparate of a gap as i first thought, probably because of my minnesota pessimism. minnesotas only allowed 500 more yards and 2 more TDs in the air all season, which is basically 40 yards and 0.2 TD a game. manning has had five 300+ yard games, which is worth 15 points (at least), kitnas had only three. mannings also had his best game against jax the second game of the season for many years running (as per what mike said and i verified).

with manning i expect at least 225/1/1.
with kitna i expect at least 250/1/1.

the thing is that i was leaning kitna because i think hes got a good shot at getting to 300 (and we get that 3 point bonus). but i think manning has almost as good a shot, and a lot more potential for 2, even 3 TDs. kitna has only 4 2-td games all year. peyton has 8. and kitna obviously has higher yikes potential too, with the -3 per INT.

so at this point im leaning back toward the safe route. not overplaying my hand, going with the horse that got me here, and expecting a safe 15-20 from peyton.