General Concensus: 3 Keeper League Draft

cctekguy

Without going into specifics (though I will later in the post) and very generally speaking, would you be more inclined to keep your studs at the expense of a 1st, 2nd and 3rd round pick or lean towards capturing the best possible value out of the guys that will only cost middle to late round picks?

It's a 12 team league so theoretically the top 36 players will be missing from the pool making a 1st round pick essentially a 4th round pick. There won't be a Peterson, Turner, or Fitzgerald out there to spend a #1 on. There WILL be a Westbrook, S.Jackson, and Tomlinson, though.

Conversely, it GALLS me to think that my first pick in the draft (if I keep my studs) will be in the 4th round and I'll be drafting from a pool of players that are being chosen in the 7th round in conventional drafts.

Technically, I guess the question boils down to:

Would you rather have 3 studs and 11 duds or take your chances on building a team from a depleted draft pool?

I'm really hoping for responses of a philosophical/general strategy type genre, but for those that just MUST have specifics, here's what I'm looking at.


Brees @ #1

A. Johnson @ #2

I am keeping Chris Johnson @4

My possible last round keepers are: C. Palmer, A. Bryant, R. Mendenhall, R. Torain, S. Morris, L. Evans, J. Morgan

I know it's way too early to tell about the value of some of these guys.

Side note: I think I can swing a deal giving up Brees and Andre and getting M.Turner @ 14 and J. Cutler @ 5.

Coachnorm

Generally speaking in my 3 keeper league (no options, you must keep 3) the basic philosiphy for most owners is keep 2RBs if you have two good ones. The third keeper usually was a top QB or WR which ever was best. Years ago, almost all the treams ran with that model maybe two didn't.

This had been a throughout the years (10) Philsophy that has been undergoing changes recently as has Fantasy Football overall because of Running Back By Commitee. With less RBs having a full share of the pie that has benn changing recently. In recent years that has shifted to the model that is facing you now. Most teams don't truely have two running backs that could be concidered main studs. Those in this league that do, do so, but the number of teams keeping 2 backs maybe is two or three teams now. The rest go RB, WR, WR if they have two great Wrs. These 2 models now comprises a little more than 1/2 half the teams in the league. The ones that go RB,WR,QB generally have a top tier QB or at least think they do. So this is the mindset generally speaking when you have to keep 3.

Can you do any nunber keepers and then draft the appropriate round?

Coachnorm

So generally speaking, I would do Basically what you are contemplating doing now. While we would all like to contemplate a different angle or a cleverer ways to do things sometimes keeping the hand you are deal is the best play.

If you look at a 12 team ADP

Average Draft Position (ADP) - Fantasy Football Calculator

Your three studs are all in the top 16 picks( Drew Brees #16) in a 12 team mock. That is a nice advantage in a situation where 12 teams will keep 36 players. The teams in your league will be keeping players ranked 17 to 36 basicly, 20 keepers worth less than your worst player kept.

Hope this basic info helps some.

Coachnorm

Now an even more general/non dynasty over all drafting principle is I can get my QBs later. It is only one postion on a weekly roster and I need two RBs and three WRs. Even though You Have Brees who is reguarded as the best you could drop him and draft a round earlier. If you look at the ADP indicater you would probably get a shot at very late 3rd early fouth round talent at RB and WR. This all depends on how many in your league keeps two and drafts one round earlry. Looking at a shot at Pierre Thomas. lynch, Reggie Bush, Moreno or Housh, Braylon, Ocho cinco, marshall Roy williams.

Keep in mind that these values may change by the time your draft comes but this is the late 3rd early 4th round talent.

I don't know how your system works. Can you keep just 2? If you do drop Brees and pick a round early(3rd round) where in that round do you get to draft, your normal position in the draft, or at the end of the round like a compensatory pick? That could be a big difference.

Also remember that you would be drafting with the pack in the next round and how early and late that is can effect your decision making.

Damm, I'm rambling again!

cctekguy

Wow...

A lot of work went into your replies and I deeply appreciate it.

We MUST keep 3 but we have pre-season trading. I could deal off Brees for a decent lower round keeper.

It would help a lot if I knew the draft order. If I get a top 1st round pick I could stand to lose Brees. There are certain to be a couple of legitimate first rounders available. A later 1st round pick would make me more inclined to keep Brees but we declare our keepers before the draft order is set.

I'm leaning towards your "play the hand you are dealt" strategy and just drafting hte best available RB in round 3.

A point we haven't touched on yet is that many others will be keeping their 1st and 2nd round picks so by the time the 3rd rolls around we could be only 12-14 picks deep. I can easily see L. Johnson, M. Lynch or even Westy slipping that low.

What are your thoughts on the Brees/A.Johnson for M.Turner trade? I'd keep C. Johnson @ 4, Turner @ 14 and after that WHO CARES? I'd have my 1,2 & 3 picks and arguably one of the best backfields in fantasy land.

Coachnorm

Now that we move on past generalities I really like this move myself. I seems to be the exact type of move that is leagues system is based around. Getting a couple of top young backs that come with a low draft pick exchange cost seems like a great move to me. Having RB Chris Johnson and RB M.Turner is a great young one-two punch with both playing for good teams. Only having to give up a 4th rounder and a 14th rounder each year to keep them seems golden, what this league was designed to do, if I am understanding this correctly. Having Cutler for a year is also great in my boat. In my league he was the #3 QB last year and he would only cost a 5th round pick to keep around. I excpect a little less out of him as a Bear but you could hang on to him for a year and see what happens. The Bears are trying to make moves to surround him with move talent. You would have the rest of this offseason, this season and next offseason to see if the Bears make such a WRs move and establish him a as a top QB again. He could become a great keeper in exchange for a 5th rounder next year.

mudloggerone

Ahoy mate, now I see how you managed to beat me twice last year. Hmmm, I'm thinking I need to get some expert help on my three keepers as well. See ya at Gasser Stadium.

cctekguy

And the year before last, If I remember correctly.

You ain't seen NOTHIN' yet!

Wait till Chris fires up "The Lineup Doctor" thread and some of the other in-season topics get going.

Best of all, everyone here lets you be as dumb as you want and never fronts you out!

Hope you enjoy it here Mud!

Sgt John

Sometimes they even let the inmates run the asylum

chrisslabaugh

thanks for the kind words cc