The Over – Under: Guys you’ll draft too high this year
Scott Henkel
There is a time honored saying in poker about suckers. Basically if you can’t figure out who the sucker is at the table within 3 seconds I have bad news for you, friend; you’re the sucker. Suckers in fantasy football just take the spoon fed crap swirling around the fantasy football echo chamber and draft like mindless automatons. Lazy writers take last year’s statistics and dutifully project them forward. You see that is the safe bet. Most players will come somewhat close to last year’s production so they won’t look like meatheads by suggesting you draft this guy #1 overall or that guy as your #1 wide receiver. These are the same meatheads who convinced you to draft Matt Forte in the top three last year so it is time to tune them out. We’re a few months away from most drafts but I can already see the hype machine kicking into overdrive for guys like Jamaal Charles, Miles Austin, Kevin Kolb, and Dallas Clark. So allow me to buck the trend and highlight a few players to avoid overpaying for in this year’s draft.
Chris Johnson- Let’s just get the biggest blasphemy out of the way, shall we? CJ2K will not repeat last year’s statistical output. But he’s consistently mocked in the #1 slot. Why? Because fantasy football owners are petrified when it comes to drafting in the #1 spot. No one wants to get clowned for picking a guy first who ends up like Larry Johnson or Matt Forte. So we draft out of fear of becoming our league goat. Don’t be a spineless twit and draft with your brains AND your testicular fortitude! If you know a guy like Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Frank Gore, or Ray Rice will outproduce last season’s rushing champ pull the trigger. Don’t get me wrong about CJ. I think he’s a damn fine back and without Lenwhale clouding the backfield he has a great shot to produce. But I have every confidence that history doesn’t have very good things to say about 2k yard backs. Add to that the re-emergence of Vince Young and his new weapon Kenny Britt and I believe the Titans won’t lean on the run nearly as much as last season. So if you do get the dreaded 1 hole this year rejoice and pass on CJ2K. (Later in the draft I’ll also pass on Beanie Wells, Jamaal Charles, anyone in Cleveland, and Steven Jackson)
Andre Johnson- No I have nothing against the last name Johnson. He just keeps getting picked as the #1 overall wide receiver in fantasy football mock drafts. Back to back 1500 yard seasons with 8-9 tds per year is pretty impressive…especially a guy going into his 8th year. Look I love what AJ is all about as a team first guy who doesn’t play the diva role. But can you honestly look at his up and down production and think he’s in a great spot to repeat as he did the last two years? Not happening, folks. Health is one concern with Johnson but the other and more pressing issue is the urgency for Kubiak and crew to institute a balance offense that keeps his quarterback upright and healthy. By all accounts Kubiak is coaching for his job this year and can ill afford losing Shaub this season. So expect a much more balanced run game. Will AJ be a stud WR1? Sure! But do guys like Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, or Sidney Rice have a much better shot at outscoring AJ? You know this! (Later in the draft I’ll also pass on Miles Austin, Marques Colston, and Randy Moss)
4:31 pm on June 11th, 2010
CJ’s stock is falling, seen MJD was the #1 RB ahead of CJ on one cheat sheet. If CJ keeps it up at his 2009 pace he will have what i call “The Earl Campbell Syndrome” run into the ground in about 6yrs.
Maybe Matt Shaub might not be a top two or three QB but would grab Schaub over Romo, Kolb-(unproven starter)or Cutler.
Nice article as you nailed it over all.
6:08 pm on June 11th, 2010
All my leagues so far are PPR leagues and if I end up #1 in any of em I’m planning on taking Rice over CJ.
Definitely agree with the Romo section, I’m going to try my best to stay away from him everywhere.
And I’m so glad there’s finally someone who agrees with me about the TE position! I’m all about Vernon Davis this year!
4:22 am on June 12th, 2010
GREAT article Ram, very informative and, as always, I love the manner in which you present your opinions, no matter how much those opinions may differ from the norm.
I very much look forward to reading your next one.
1:50 pm on June 14th, 2010
Wholeheartedly agree on CJ2K. I recently was arguing he should be #4 behind MJD, AP and RR.
Not following on Romo though. You state 4,000+ and 27+ is the cornerstone standard. Romo went for 4,211 and 36 TD’s (plus 2 rushing) in ‘08. He only played 13 games in ‘09 but still had 26 TD’s along with 3,448, so in line with the standard you said considering he missed 3 games. Last year he had 4,483 and 26 TD’s plus 1 rushing. He seems to fit your bill, and for 3 years has been a top 5 QB or better. Going in to this year, Miles Austin has emerged, he adds Dez Bryant, and they have talked about getting Felix more catches this yr, who is electric.
Compared to last year to start the season, his passing weapons are markedly improved over last year and he’s showing better decision making and accuracy as evidenced by only 9 interceptions last year. And this year they are playing to host the SB. Romo has all the makings for me to be this year’s Rodgers and put up big numbers for a QB who will be 5-8 off the board. I for one am targeting him big time.
Only draft btw 10-15? Last month you ranked him #5, ahead of Peyton and Schaub, and now say he’s only worth 10-15? I don’t get it.
9:26 am on June 15th, 2010
Now THIS is how you bring it, ladies and gentlemen! Well done, sir. Indeed I do value him above Peyton and Schaub but only because I don’t believe either will be the cash cows most are predicting this year. The 10-15 comment was more creative license than my opinion on their market price so my true point is that he will be taken well before I believe his production will dictate. Your comparison to Rodgers pretty much proves my point about the hype machine behind Romo. Miles Austin is this year’s Vanilla Ice; he has all the characteristics of a one year wonder. Bryant has some major league talent but until he puts that on the field he merely has potential. Jerry Jones has been talking about Felix getting involved in the passing game since he drafted him and so far he hasn’t been much of a factor. In truth about Felix he will more than likely become highly involved in the run game before he’s a passing option. That leaves us with old reliable Jason Witten who of anyone on that squad will be the big winner this year.
I’m not knocking him as a QB1 and you’ve put a ton of thought behind targeting Romo so at this point in the season we both get to be right. The biggest point at this point in the season is to have these kinds of discussions on players to better formulate a draft and trade strategy so I truly appreciate the comments.
10:52 am on June 17th, 2010
Nice article…not sure I totally agree on Chris Johnson, but I would be wary about drafting him #1 overall…
Only have Andre in one league, his injuries are the things keeping him from being an “elite” wide receiver…
Disagree with the Tony Romo opinion. I believe even if Austin is a one year wonder, he is a solid contributor to the team…Romo should easily put up 4,000+ yards and 25+ TDs this year…not much has changed from last year other than adding Bryant…
I believe there are a number of TEs I would pull the trigger on before Clark, but if Manning trusts in Clark, he will get the looks he needs to be a top 5 TE…
12:12 pm on June 17th, 2010
Jaybebo, so Andre is not an elite WR?
10:04 pm on June 19th, 2010
Also, I guess he’s an injury prone WR. Haven’t noticed that, but OK. Had one season where he missed serious time, but this is football and injuries happen……
10:09 pm on June 19th, 2010
Ram has been drinking. Tequila would be my guess. Heavy doses……..
Romo 10-15? And you value him above Manning and Schaub?
Creative license? Drunkenness is more like it…….
6:53 pm on August 20th, 2010
Nice work Ram, Bam, Thank you ma’am! Good read and some interesting takes. Gotta respect anyone who is ready to call out 3 players who are at the top of their positions ( CJ, Andre, Clark).
Sometimes it’s not as much about who you draft, but more about what bust you avoid!! Want a fool-proof way to avoid a bust? Don’t draft a RB in the 5-10 range off the board. Names in that category last year : LT, Brian Westbrook, Steve Slaton, Clinton Portis. Yikes!! Talk about a wasted pick. Of course, players like CJ, Gore, and SJAX were also taken out of there so take my advice with a grain of salt.